To The Moon

(Note: as always, this is not investment advice.)

The world of wines and alcoholic beverages can be approached from two broad investment angles:

• Publicly‑traded companies in the alcohol/wine sector — e.g., producers, distributors, beverage conglomerates.

• Collectible/fine wines (physical bottles, rare vintages) as alternative assets.

Market fundamentals

• The global wine market is forecast to grow from about US$1,909.7 billion in 2025, to ~US$3,324.4 billion by 2035 — a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of ~5.7%. (Future Market Insights)

• In Southeast Asia (ASEAN), the wine market revenue in 2025 is estimated at US$5.19 billion (US$3.02 bn at home + US$2.17 bn out‑of‑home). Volume growth is modest; for example, “at home” volume is expected to decline slightly in 2026 (‑0.3 %).

• In Vietnam alone, the wine market is projected to reach ~US$167 billion by 2027 (CAGR ~6.4% 2021‑27) driven by middle class growth.

• On the collectible side, fine wine (investment‑grade) has historically delivered strong returns: one report notes average annual returns of 7‑10% depending on vintage, storage, provenance.

These datapoints suggest that the wine/flowering‑vine sector has structural growth, though not necessarily explosive short‑term moves. It’s also affected by consumer habits, macroeconomic pressures, supply constraints (weather, climate change) and luxury/collectible demand dynamics.

Why consider wine/investment‑wine?

• Alternative asset: Fine wines have low correlation to traditional equities in many analyses, so they can offer diversification.

• Premiumisation: As incomes rise (especially in Asia, emerging markets), consumers trade up to higher quality wines, which supports price growth for premium vintages.

• Supply constraints: Good vintages, vineyard yields, and climate issues can limit supply, supporting value over time.

Key risks to keep in mind

• Liquidity: Collectible wines are less liquid than stocks; selling may take time and costs/storage matter.

• Consumer behaviour shifts: For public companies, macro slowdown, changes in drinking habits, regulatory/tax changes can hit.

• Valuation: Premium‑wine prices may already embed expected growth and could be vulnerable if demand softens. Some forums note prices stabilising or corrected after previous runs.

• External shocks: Trade tariffs, export restrictions, climate events (drought, disease) can affect supply and cost structures.

Wine‑related Stocks: What’s Going On Now?

Let’s look at some recent signals for publicly‑traded companies in the wine/alcohol space.

• Constellation Brands (NYSE: STZ) is a U.S.‑based major in wine, beer and spirits. Recent results showed a 28% drop in the wine & spirits segment in a quarter, reflecting weaker consumer demand.

• Treasury Wine Estates (ASX: TWE) has faced weak performance, especially in key markets like China, and recently withdrew earnings guidance and paused share buy‑backs.

These suggest that for wine stocks, the short term can be challenging: consumer demand is under pressure, macro conditions uncertain, and some companies are revising expectations downward.

From Valuation/Oppurtunity perspective: companies with strong brand portfolios or exposure to premium segments might fare better than mass‑market producers, but there’s no guarantee of fast growth in the near term.

Fine Wines as Investment Assets

For those interested in the collectible side rather than stocks, the market for investment‑grade wines gives some interesting signals:

• According to reports, top‑tier wines (e.g., from Burgundy, Napa, Tuscany) have delivered returns in the 9‑15% range year‑to‑date for certain vintages.

• Secondary market data suggest that transaction volume and price movements may be recovering: one forum post noted a +4.3% quarter‑on‑quarter rise in trade prices among investment‑grade wines in Q3 2025.

• However, the market is not uniform — many lots still face discounts; some regions may be bottoming out rather than booming.

Thus, while collectible wines remain an interesting niche, they require access, provenance, storage, and patience — and the near‑term upside may be more moderate.

Three‑Month Forecast: What to Expect (Oct‑Dec 2025)

Given the above, here’s a reasoned view of what might happen over the next three months in the wine/alcohol investment space:

For wine stocks

• Modest recovery or stabilization rather than sharp jumps. Given recent weak consumer data and company guidance cuts (e.g., Treasury Wine Estates) the sector may stay under pressure.

• Companies with strong premium‑wine portfolios or diversified beverage offerings may outperform peers.

• Market sensitivity to macro factors (consumer spending, inflation, interest rates) means any positive surprise (e.g., improved export numbers, favorable tariffs, holiday consumption uptick) could trigger a modest rally.

• Conversely, negative surprises (slower consumption growth, regulatory impacts, input‑cost inflation) could cause further softness.

Forecast: Over the next 3 months, we might see a +2% to +6% potential upside for select well‑managed wine/alcohol stocks, while others might remain flat or down a few percent. Risk‑weighted expectation: neutral to slightly positive.

For collectible/fine wines

• The recent uptick in trade prices suggests the market may have found some floor or is stabilising. The +4.3% in one quarter among investment‑grade wines is a positive signal.

• Demand from Asia (especially high‑net‑worth individuals) could ramp up in the run‑up to year‑end holidays and gifting season, selectively boosting premium vintages.

• No major oversupply shock is visible (although climate issues could always intervene). But large upside is unlikely in three months; the collectible wine market tends to play out over years.

• Storage, transaction costs, and time‑to‑liquidate mean that short‑term investors may not benefit much.

Forecast: Over the next 3 months, a +3% to +8% return on high‑quality, investment‑grade wines is plausible (with the right vintage/producer/provenance). Lower‑quality/less liquid lots might flat‑line or even decline.

Key variables to watch

• Consumer spending trends in key markets (USA, China, Europe)

• Export/market access for wine brands (tariffs/trade policy)

• Holiday season demand (Q4) for premium wines and gifting

• Input cost pressures (grapes, packaging, logistics) and their impact on producer margins

• Liquidity and sentiment in investment‑wine secondary markets

• Interest rate/inflation environment, which affects alternative asset appeal

What This Means for Investors

• If you are looking at wine stocks, focus on companies with strong brand portfolios, premium segment exposure, and global diversification. Beware those overly reliant on vulnerable markets or commodity‑wine segments.

• If you are considering collectible wines, treat them as longer‑term holdings. The next three months may bring modest gains, but don’t expect large windfalls. Storage and transaction cost matter significantly.

• Diversification remains important: wine/investment‑wine should probably be a complement to, not a replacement for, traditional equities and fixed income.

• Because the wine market is less liquid and more niche than stocks, you should have patience and a clear exit strategy.

Final Thoughts

The wine and alcoholic beverages sector offers interesting investment angles: from public stocks to collectible fine wines. Over the next three months (Oct to Dec 2025), expectations should be modest rather than explosive: stabilisation or modest gains appear most likely.

If I were to summarise the mood in one sentence: “Steady rather than spectacular”.

Cheers🍻 🥂🥃🍺🍾