To The Moon

1. Snapshot: sector & stocks

• S&P GICS "Coal & Consumable Fuels" +69.8% in five days — the only group to top +50% among 113 sub-industries.

• $Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLE)$ +4.3% in the same week → +65 ppt out-performance, largest since 2008.

Top movers (>$3 bn market-cap)

• $Energy Fuels(UUUU)$ – only U.S. producer of both U₃O₈ + rare-earth oxide; hit 2008-high Friday.

• $Uranium(UEC)$ – Hobson (TX) ISR plant at 95% utilisation; $100 m buy-back launched.

• $Centrus(LEU)$ – sole HALEU supplier; White House listed Piketon plant "critical infrastructure" 7 Oct.

• $Core Natural Resources, Inc.(CNR)$ – coal & uranium; Q3 EPS guidance 4× YoY, shorts covered 1.3 m shares.

2. Why it jumped

Catalysts

• 7 Oct House passes Accelerating Nuclear Deployment Act—30% ITC for SMRs, 10-yr tax credit extension.

• 9 Oct Japan approves second Fukushima water release; spot U jumps to $81/lb (+14% MTD).

• 10 Oct EU "Nuclear x2 by 2035" plan—€1.2 bn strategic uranium reserve.

Flow

• Goldman's prime book: hedge-fund net uranium+coal exposure +2.3× WoW—fastest since Mar-22.

• URA ETF in-flows $370 m in five sessions, record high; KOL ETF +$110 m.

Fundamentals

• Uranium in 14-month deficit; 2025 gap 35 Mlb (WNA).

• U.S. utilities 2026-27 contract cover only 68% (vs 80% hist.).

• Newcastle coal $140/t—ARA stocks 10-yr low; India Sep imports +27% YoY.

3. News-check & valuations (post 13-Oct close)

Based on publicly available information retrievable as of the 13 Oct 2025 market close (company releases, PR Newswire, SEC 8-K, DOE website, Canadian SEDAR, trade media), the key catalysts check out as follows:

• $Energy Fuels(UUUU)$ : 30 Sep press release confirms White Mesa rare-earth circuit is 95% mechanically complete; feed-stock trial runs scheduled for 15-25 Oct, aligning with "Oct start-up" language.

• $Ur-Energy(URG)$ : 8 Oct operations update reports Q3 average recovery 96.1% and raises FY-25 production guidance by 8%.

• $Uranium(UEC)$ : 25 Sep 8-K shows board approved up to US$100m buy-back over 24 months; company has engaged an agent for open-market purchases.

• $American Resources Corporation(AREC)$ : 4 Oct DOE notice awards Phase-II US$2.03m grant to its ReElement division; AREC PR same day acknowledges receipt.

• $Core Natural Resources, Inc.(CNR)$ : 11 Oct preliminary results guide Q3 EPS US$2.1-2.2 vs US$0.52 prior year (+4×); full report due 30 Oct.

• $Anfield Energy Inc.(AEC)$ : 6 Oct ATM programme completed, raising US$8.1m at avg US$9.35/sh to fund Shootaring plant restart.

• $Centrus(LEU)$ : 7 Oct White House fact-sheet tags HALEU facilities "critical infrastructure"; LEU's Piketon plant is the only operating U.S. HALEU line—company subsequently affirmed.

• $IsoEnergy Ltd.(ISOU)$ : 2025 annual report & SEDAR show Cameco (direct + via Orano) holds 52.3%; 20 Sep Proactive article repeats take-out talk—firm has not denied.

• $Lightbridge(LTBR)$ : 26 Sep joint PR with Constellation announces 12-month MOU on licensing/economic study for metallic fuel in PWRs.

• $ENCORE ENERGY CORP(EU)$ : 9 Oct update says NRC has finished public comment on final EIS draft for Ross ISR; final EIS expected Nov-25, material licence 1Q-26, matching "final-stage" wording.

*%-ile vs own 2019-25 band; LEU/AEC/LTBR use EV/Sales.

4. Chart levels (cash session)

• UUUU support $19.8-20.2, stop < $18.8

• UEC break-out $15 tgt $17.2, lose $13.9 = fake

• LEU pull-back $320, resistance $380

• URG > $2.05, fail $1.75

• AREC dip-buy $3.7-3.8, stop $3.4

• AEC $9.5 line, strong $8.8

• ISOU channel $9.9-11.2

• LTBR $23.5 res, under $20 wait

• EU box $2.9-3.8, mid $3.3

5. Q&A (takeaway lines)

• Q1 Lock-in at $80/lb?
  A: 70% spot now; if >$80 sustained we'll raise 2026-27 term to 50% for cash-flow smoothing.

• Q2 SMR delays?
  A: 5 DOE-funded SMRs need ~12 Mlb/yr; even pushed to 2030-31, retiring units alone give 2% pa demand growth.

• Q3 ESG & coal exit?
  A: Coal still 40% FCF; no spin planned. "Energy Transition Fund" will recycle coal cash into SMR fuel; target <25% coal revenue by 2027.

6. Strategy snapshot

• Short-term (1-3 m) – Event + flow still strong; use "shares + deep-OTM puts" for volatility.

• Mid-term (6-12 m) – Watch Q1-26 SMR FID; if <3 GW awarded, expect 15-20% pull-back = add point.

• Long-term (2026-28) – Supply gap persists; spot uranium could test $100-120. Low-cost, permitted, well-funded names keep premium.

Pocket checklist

• Conservative: $Energy Fuels(UUUU)$ + $Uranium(UEC)$ + $Centrus(LEU)$ (60% weight, DCA into $100/lb target)

• Speculative: $Ur-Energy(URG)$ + $Anfield Energy Inc.(AEC)$ + $ENCORE ENERGY CORP(EU)$ (<10% basket, stop if U <$70)

• Event: $Lightbridge(LTBR)$ & $American Resources Corporation(AREC)$ via options/warrants for tech / policy upside, limited downside.

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