To The Moon

Over the National Day holiday week, markets shifted again: silver, the core sentiment gauge, led gold to fresh highs, and Bitcoin reclaimed the top spot in crypto with a new all-time high. The market is effectively immune to anything that looks negative, so fighting the prevailing mania is inadvisable until it clearly fades. That said, once leading indicators flash a definitive reversal, it could still mark a major inflection worth close attention.

Among assets, silver remains the representative bellwether tracked over the past month. Silver futures set a new high this week, but with two trading days left, the chart has printed a high-level doji. While not a definitive top, it cannot be dismissed outright. Silver making highs has often coincided with rapid risk-off turns across risk assets, which is one reason it is used as a key indicator. On price action, a break below 45.7—the prior daily engulfing low—would heighten the risk of a potential reversal. Gold, which has also made new highs, looks comparatively steady with a persistent daily uptrend. Until silver confirms a top, gold’s advance is unlikely to stall.

Another indicator has tilted back from Ether toward Bitcoin, as Bitcoin nudged to new highs over the holiday. The focus now is whether these highs can extend and hold; failure to establish a firm base risks a repeat of late August. Unlike silver, a sudden Bitcoin collapse seems less likely at these levels. The market will either push forward or step back; if fresh-high buying cannot sustain, demand could fade quickly, especially with Ether showing relative weakness lately.

On indexes and key stocks, NVIDIA and the S&P/Nasdaq remain in a steady, rising slow-bull configuration. With NVIDIA’s climb stabilizing, broad U.S. equity weakness looks unlikely; equities probably only wobble if the two indicators above roll over first. Those already long should mostly watch rather than churn positions, while chasing strength still argues for caution. A relatively conservative but steady stance is to be long/bullish U.S. equities while hedging via crypto, though volatility differences matter and trades should not be sized one-for-one.

In short, post-holiday sentiment is hotter and more explosive than before; sticking with stable assets and directionally following the trend is the only sensible choice. For cautious traders (like the author), watching leading indicators closely as an early-exit signal may risk “getting off the bus too early,” but with year-end approaching, protecting gains is also a key objective. Respecting market trends and rhythm does not conflict with subjective views (for example, that there will be an epic cycle during President Trump’s term).

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