To The Moon

Rigetti and D-Wave surge 20%+ this week as quantum computing gets major backing from Nvidia.

In this article we would like to share whether this rally can continued as it has kicked into overdrive after Nvidia threw its weight behind quantum breakthroughs and major purchase orders started flowing in.

Here is a balanced take on whether the quantum-stock rally (e.g. Rigetti, D-Wave) has legs or is in danger of a pullback:

What Is Driving The Surge?

The recent run in quantum names is not purely speculative noise — there are real catalysts underpinning it:

• Commercial orders and validation: Rigetti just announced ~$5.7 million in purchase orders for two of its Novera systems, marking one of its first non-governmental hardware sales.

• Backing from big tech / validation via partnerships: Nvidia (and others) are ramping up investments and signaling that quantum + accelerated computing is part of the next frontier.

• Strong capital positions: D-Wave recently completed a large capital raise (reportedly ~$400 million), boosting its cash reserves and reducing the immediate pressure to raise more.

• Sector momentum & narrative: The quantum space is capturing attention again—investors are starting to treat it less as a purely speculative frontier and more as a nascent tech vertical.

These are meaningful tailwinds, not just hype.

Risks, headwinds & caution points

Even with strong momentum, several challenges could restrain or reverse the rally:

Given the facts, here is where we see this playing out (more as probabilities than certainties):

Short to medium term (weeks to months) — we would expect continued volatility, with a bias toward further upside, but with likely pullbacks or pauses. Momentum is strong, and some buyers are still in the game. But we should not expect a straight line up.

Key scenario triggers:

• If $Rigetti Computing(RGTI)$ or $D-Wave Quantum Inc.(QBTS)$ announce more firm commercial orders, especially from large enterprise or government customers, that could fuel another leg up.

• Conversely, missing targets, delays, or technological setbacks could cause sharp reversals.

Long term (1-3+ years) — The big risk is whether quantum computing can make the leap from scientific demonstration to broad commercial utility. If so, many of today’s quantum players could see sustained growth. If not, a shakeout is possible.

I think this rally can continue (possibly strongly) — but not without turbulence. It is far from a “sure thing.” For anyone considering exposure now, I would suggest:

• Staggered entries / scaling in, rather than all-in bets

• Monitoring execution metrics (e.g. order wins, delivery dates, error rates)

• Setting stop or risk levels, since downside is nontrivial

• Diversifying into other quantum / adjacent names (so you’re not overly dependent on a single outcome)

In the next section we ran a compact, evidence-based scenario analysis for Rigetti (RGTI) and D-Wave (QBTS) for 12-month and 24-month horizons (bull / base / bear), with rationale, probabilities, and practical actions.

We used recent company releases and market coverage (purchase orders, cash balances, analyst commentary, and broader industry signals such as Nvidia’s growing public support for quantum).

Here are some quick facts that we used

• Rigetti announced purchase orders totaling ≈$5.7M for two 9-qubit Novera systems (deliveries planned H1 2026).

• Rigetti has been re-rated by analysts and seen large price-target upgrades after recent execution; commentary notes a materially stronger cash position after a mid-2025 raise.

• D-Wave reported a record cash balance (~$819M as of June 30, 2025) after large equity raises, materially improving its balance sheet.

• Multiple market reports link the current quantum rally to industry validation and larger players (NVIDIA’s publicized quantum focus and investments), which is lifting investor sentiment across quantum names.

Scenario outputs — price targets, % moves, and probabilities

Notes: prices below are rounded, relative to recent market levels (RGTI ≈ $44; QBTS ≈ $34 — see market quote pages for live quotes).

Do not that these are scenario ranges, not forecasts with guaranteed outcomes.

Rigetti (RGTI) — base reference ≈ $44

D-Wave (QBTS) — base reference ≈ $34

How We Chose The Ranges

Bull: assumes clear, repeatable commercial demand (multiple multi-$M orders), enterprise trials converting to recurring revenue, partnerships/acquisitions, favorable macro/risk appetite. (Supported by Rigetti’s $5.7M orders and D-Wave’s large cash runway.)

Base: assumes steady progress: product deliveries, dozens (not hundreds) of commercial customers, scaling but margins and profitability distant. Current investor enthusiasm sustains multiple expansion but not a blowout.

Bear: assumes hype fades, technical hurdles slow commercialization, or further dilution that materially reduces per-share value.

Key triggers to watch (these will move probabilities materially)

1. New, named commercial orders (enterprise / multi-$M deals) and any change to delivery timelines — increases bull probability.

2. Recurring revenue / services announcements (e.g., managed services or long-term support contracts).

3. Product milestones & benchmarks (error rate reductions, higher logical qubit counts, Advantage2 adoption for D-Wave).

4. Large partner wins or cloud integrations (AWS, Microsoft, Nvidia collaborations or marketplace listings).

5. Capital raises / dilution or large insider selling — watch filings for share issuance.

6. Macro risk events — market risk-off will often hit these high-beta names hard.

Practical portfolio suggestions

• Position sizing: keep single-name exposure small (e.g., 1–3% of risk capital per equity), unless you have high conviction and are prepared for high volatility.

• Scale-in: buy in tranches on pullbacks rather than all at once.

• Use options to express view: for bullish tilt, consider long-dated call spreads (limits capital and reduces theta). For downside protection, buying puts or using collars can limit tail risk.

• Set clear risk rules: e.g., sell if a key delivery misses or if sequencing of purchases stalls for multiple quarters.

• Diversify within the theme: if you want quantum exposure, spread across hardware vendors (Rigetti, D-Wave, IonQ), and consider smaller allocation to adjacent plays (classical acceleration, software stacks).

Bottom line / recommendation

• The recent news (Rigetti’s ~$5.7M purchase orders; D-Wave’s record cash after capital raises) plus Nvidia-era sentiment support make continued upside plausible, but these names remain very high-risk / high-volatility plays.

• If you are a speculator and accept big drawdowns, the base and bull scenarios justify a small allocation and active monitoring. If you are a long-term investor looking for durable cash flows and profitability, you would want to wait for sustained recurring revenue and clearer unit economics.

Summary

This week, quantum computing firms Rigetti and D-Wave saw their stock prices surge by over 20%, a significant rally fueled by renewed investor confidence after receiving backing from AI giant Nvidia. The momentum was further amplified by Rigetti's announcement of $5.7 million in purchase orders for its quantum computing systems, signaling a pivotal shift from research to real-world commercial applications.

The broader quantum sector has been energized by these developments, with D-Wave's stock also experiencing a significant uptick. This surge is largely attributed to the positive sentiment generated by Rigetti's commercial success and Nvidia's vocal support for the future of quantum breakthroughs.

While the recent performance is impressive, the sustainability of this rally remains a key question. Analysts are optimistic about the long-term growth of the quantum computing industry. However, they also advise caution, noting that the technology is still in its early stages. The market's trajectory will likely depend on continued commercial adoption and further technological advancements from these pioneering companies.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think quantum stocks still have potential for more rally and it is a good time to enter.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.