To The Moon

$Netflix(NFLX)$ $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$ $Goldman Sachs(GS)$ I’m stepping into October with the conviction of a Wall Street veteran who’s seen this seasonal playbook light up portfolios time and again. Momentum, seasonality, and strategic positioning are converging in a way that doesn’t happen often. This is where the smart money sharpens its edge and the retail crowd either catches the wave or gets left behind.

We Didn’t Start the 🔥 Fire 

Short squeeze, winning streaks

TrumpRX, AI peaks

Options boom, buy the dip

Retail takes another trip

Bears hitting exits fast

Momentum plays built to last

Bond yields rising every day,

Seasons just a game we play

D.C. dysfunction, VIX without compunction

Record closes, win streaks,

Gold prices all-time peaks

Bitcoin’s going vertical,

Shutdown talk is back for more

I can’t take it anymore!

Billy Joel’s rapid-fire chronicle captured the unstoppable momentum of history; markets are no different. The forces driving them rarely start with us, yet we’re all swept along as each new verse is written in real time.

https://youtu.be/eFTLKWw542g?si=qrLeMX1DRpF5dxdr

📅 October Seasonal Trends: Alpha or Trap?

Best & Worst S&P 500 stocks for October over the last decade are now loaded with some striking seasonal standouts.

📊 October Seasonality: Best Performers

📊 October Seasonality: Worst Performers

Netflix (NFLX) jumps off the page with a 7.59% average return and an 80% win rate. Combine that with a 10% drawdown in the last three months, and it’s giving clear buy-the-dip vibes for anyone hunting seasonal reversals.

The technicals are flashing a textbook setup. $NFLX has formed a series of head-and-shoulders patterns across multiple time frames. Price is sitting right on the neckline and first gap-fill zone around 1155–1162. A clean break here opens the door to the 1094–1072 region, aligning with a major gap fill and long-term trendline support. If there’s no reaction, the next gap sits near 963. All eyes on how this unfolds into earnings.

Banks are lighting up the October radar. JPMorgan (JPM) has delivered post-earnings pops of 1.5% and 4.4% in the last two Octobers, with Goldman Sachs (GS) and Wells Fargo (WFC) showing similar seasonal strength. The sector as a whole has repeatedly entered October with a bullish lean.

Dark and ominous tones for Western Digital (WDC). The stock has rallied sharply this year but faces a historically weak October, averaging –6.73% with only a 30% win rate.

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) is down 30% YTD, hit a multi-year low of $38.31 on 11Sep25, and is heading into one of its weakest historical periods, with a –2.63% average Q4 return and a 30% win rate.

📊 Q4 Seasonal Patterns: Strength vs Struggle

📊 Best S&P 500 Stocks in Q4

📊 Worst S&P 500 Stocks in Q4

Broadcom (AVGO) looks like the alpha magnet heading into year-end. It boasts a 19.41% average Q4 return and a perfect 100% win rate over the past decade. When you overlay that with its centrality in AI infrastructure, this is seasonality colliding with megatrend momentum.

Banks again dominate the leaderboard: BAC, KEY, PNC, RJF, and GS are repeat performers with double-digit average returns. October’s bullish setup often bleeds straight into the fourth quarter for financials.

On the flipside, Hasbro (HAS) has one of the worst Q4 track records in the S&P 500, averaging –7.71% with just a 20% win rate, despite its holiday retail positioning. CMG appears again, reinforcing its seasonal headwinds.

🪙 ETF Seasonal Lens

The ETF seasonal tables are too long to include here, but two standouts are worth calling out:

• iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) has averaged a 2.2% October return with an 80% win rate, and it’s already up 61% in 2025, riding gold’s coattails to record highs.

• iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is the worst performer of the past decade, with a –2.9% average October return and a punishing 10% win rate. Yields popped after last week’s ADP jobs data, putting bonds into a historically stormy period.

✨ Power Ranking My Top 2025 Stock Picks… as Taylor Swift Eras

📊 2025 Stock Picks Performance Table

YTD, my 2025 picks are up a staggering +1322.8% in aggregate, powered by Nebius Group (+356%), Bloom Energy (+309%), Rocket Lab (+109%), and CVNA, Deutsche Bank, and Coinbase following close behind.

Let’s run through them Swift-style:

Folklore Era (A little slower, but still packs a punch)

1️⃣ Rocket Lab (RKLB): 📈🅱️ U͛ L͛ L͛ I͛ S͛ H͛🔺 I’ve been beating the earth exploration drum for a while now. Is that a bullish flag pattern forming amidst its month-long consolidation? It brushed off a $750M stock sale, has technical support, and remains a contrarian play with 12.7% SI/F. Unironically, to the moon!! 🚀🌕

Fearless Era (Can see the vision)

4️⃣ Deutsche Bank (DB): A boring old bank stock that’s quietly vibing, a poster child for value rotation.

5️⃣ Carvana (CVNA): Riding the 50-day MA after a 17% post-earnings bull gap on 31Jul25. SI/F at 8.7% keeps the squeeze door open.

6️⃣ Sea (SE): Three straight quarters in the black. Not explosive squeeze potential anymore, but rock-solid chart support.

Red Era (All over the place, some big swings)

7️⃣ SoFi Technologies (SOFI): Took a 16% haircut from its Sept. 22 record high, now testing its 50-day MA. SI/F of 9.8% leaves plenty of room.

8️⃣ Coinbase Global (COIN): Classic crypto sentiment play. Still facing plenty of analyst scepticism despite massive YTD gains.

9️⃣ Ezcorp (EZPW): Loved that July bounce off its 200-day MA. With 16.4% SI/F, fintech upside could still be building.

🔟 Roku (ROKU): Oversold on the 14-day RSI, reinventing itself as a leaner business.

Midnights Era (Really like the look when you get into the weeds)

11️⃣ Dell Technologies (DELL): Keep an eye on tariff and chip import headlines here. The chart’s hinting at a little bull flag.

12️⃣ Boeing (BA): Not all growth stocks here. It’s still within a channel of higher highs since April lows.

13️⃣ STMicroelectronics (STM): Still working to fill that post-earnings gap from 24Jul25.

Fearless Era (Ready to break out)

14️⃣ CF Industries (CF): Quietly filled its post-earnings drawdown from early August. SI/F at 6.5%, and 14/17 brokers are still sitting on Hold or Strong Sell ratings. That’s fertile contrarian ground.

15️⃣ Beam Therapeutics (BEAM): After a brutal start to the year, it’s now trading at its highest since March. Highest SI/F of the group. Don’t call it a comeback.

Debut Era (Not my cup of tea, but has potential)

16️⃣ SEI Investments (SEIC): Testing the 200-day MA in the wrong direction.

17️⃣ Opera (OPRA): Couldn’t capitalise on a September buy rating. Down 11% weekly.

18️⃣ LendingClub (LC): Technically testing a historically bullish trendline near its July post-earnings bull gap. Even the laggards here aren’t lagging by much.

🧠 Macro Context

Bank of America recorded record outflows over the past fortnight. The chart shows the rolling two-week sum of net buying by BofA Securities clients, with the latest reading marking the sharpest large cap equity outflows since 2008. On the surface, this looks bearish. But historically, heavy outflows ahead of strong seasonal periods for sectors like banks often reflect late-cycle de-risking rather than structural weakness. If seasonal patterns in JPM, GS, and WFC repeat, this kind of flush could be the setup rather than the top.

👉 ❓Does this profit-taking trend trip up buyers and signal the end of the party?

👉 ❓Or do we consolidate through time, ease through risks, and squeeze higher while everyone watches from the sidelines?

That’s the life of a showgirl, folks. Keep on keeping on.

I’m closing this piece with absolute clarity. October isn’t just another month. It’s historically where momentum, macro, and positioning collide to set the tone for the rest of the year. Netflix’s seasonal strength, Broadcom’s flawless Q4 track record, and the banks’ consistent October resilience form a trifecta that demands attention. Layer that with high-conviction picks ranked through my Taylor Swift Eras framework, and you have a roadmap for navigating what could be one of the most opportunistic quarters in years.

This is where traders either sharpen their edge or miss the wave entirely. I know which side I’m on.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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