To The Moon

US central bank realized its first interest cut of -0.25% last week, on Wed 17 Sep 2025 - its first trim for 2025. Strangely, it took market a day (Wednesday itself) for the anticipated interest cut to sink in before market rallied to close Friday on a ‘high’. (see below) For the week: $Dow Jones(.DJI)$. Gained +1.02% (+466.79 to 46,315.27). $S&P 500(.SPX)$. Gained +0.92% (+60.87 to 6,664.36). Notched its 3rd straight week of gains. And posted 30 new 52-week highs and 17 new 52-week lows. $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$. Gained +1.75% (+388.28 to 22,631.48). Notched its 3rd straight week of gains. And recorded 151 new 52-week highs and 54 new 52-week lows. Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.42-to-1 ratio. Trading volume on all 3 US exchanges on Friday was 27.78 billion shares vs the 17.41 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days. Triple Witching. It helped that Fri, 19 Sep 2025, was "triple witching" day when the 3 types of contracts (stock option, stock index futures, stock index option) expire simultaneously. This usually brings more trading and big price swings, especially in the last hour, as traders close or adjust their positions. On that fateful Friday, trading volume was 27.78 billion shares, much much higher than the 17.41 billion average over the past 20 days. US Economic Reports Helped US Market Rally ? Last week also saw several US economic reports released as planned. Did they help the US market rally? (1) US Retail Sales. On 16 Sep 2025, US Retail sales report for August 2025 was released. (see above) It showed that sales rose by +0.6%, beating expectations and marking the 3rd consecutive month of growth increase. Consumer spending was strong across many sectors, especially (a) e-commerce, (b) clothing, and (c) food services, despite challenges like inflation around 3-4% and a weakening labour market. Though sales were partially boosted by higher prices, the broad increase underscored the economy's continued resilience despite mounting headwinds. (2) US Import Price Index. On 16 Sep 2025, US Import Price index report was released as planned. It showed, import prices has increased by +0.3% in August, following a +0.2% rise in the previous month. (see above) This was driven mainly by higher prices for capital goods and consumer goods. Fuel import prices fell by -0.8%, led by declines in petroleum and natural gas costs. Excluding food and fuel, import prices rose +0.5% MoM, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures in non-fuel imports. Overall, import prices have largely been flat YoY, suggesting a mixed inflation outlook with potential for domestic inflation to accelerate in coming months. (3) Jobless Claims. Overall US jobless claims reports (initial and continuing) improved. (a) Weekly jobless claims. For week ending 13 Sep 2025, US weekly jobless claims fell by -33,000 claims to 231,000, indicating a slight improvement after a spike the prior week. (see above) Despite this dip, US labour market remains ‘soft’, job growth slowing and the unemployment rate nearing a 4 -year high at 4.3%. This reflects reduced demand for workers and a cautious hiring environment amid economic uncertainty. (b) Continuing jobless. For week ending 6 Sep 2025, US weekly continuing claims also showed a decrease of -7,000 to 1.92 million. (see above) The modest improvement does nothing to improve overall extended unemployment, that still points to longer durations of joblessness for many. Ongoing level of claims suggests that while layoffs remain relatively low, the pace of rehiring is slow, reflecting a labour market that is cooling & facing challenges to sustain employment growth. The 2 reports together painted a picture of weakening labour market momentum as of late 2025. (4) US Leading Economic Indicator (LEI). On Thu, 18 Sep 2025, Conference Board’s LEI report for August 2025 was released. Index declined by -0.5%, marking its largest monthly drop since April 2025. It followed a (1) small upward revision for July 2025 and (2) reflects broader economic headwinds ahead. Over the past 6 month, the LEI fell by -2.8%, a sharper contraction compared to the prior six-month period. Key negative contributors include: (see below) Weak manufacturing new orders. Deteriorating consumer expectations. Labour market softness, that included (i) rising unemployment claims and (ii) reduced manufacturing hours. These are the same 3 key components that weighed on the index over the past 6 months. Key positive contributors. Only stock prices and the Leading Credit Index (LCI) supported the LEI in August and over the past 6 months. LEI's report 's 10 components Although the Conference Board LEI report is not forecasting a recession, it expects a slowdown in economic growth to 1.6% in 2025, from 2.8% last year. A major driver of the slowdown has been higher tariffs, that has already trimmed growth in H1 2025 and will continue to be a drag on GDP growth in H2 2025 & H1 2026. Apart from US retail sales report, the others weren’t boosters that fueled US market’s rally for week ending 20 Sep 2025. What’s In-store ? For week beginning 22 Sep 2025, following US economic reports will be published as planned: Tue, 23 Sep 2025 - S&P flash US services PMI. Tue, 23 Sep 2025 - S&P flash US manufacturing PMI. Thu, 25 Sep 2025 - US jobless claims. Thu, 25 Sep 2025 - US’s Q2 2025 Gross domestic product (GDP) third & final estimate. Fri, 26 Sep 2025 - Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) for August 2025. Fri, 26 Sep 2025 - Consumer sentiment (final) for August 2025. Like clockwork, these ‘regular’ reports will exert their influences based on how wildly they fluctuate from month-to-month. Fed In Action. What is more interesting in the coming week is the droves of central bank members’ socialization: Mon, 22 Sep 2025. New York Fed President John Williams speech. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem speech. Fed governor Stephen Miran speech.** Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack speech Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speech Tue, 23 Sep 2025. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speech.** Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speech. Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech. Wed, 24 Sep 2025. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speech. Thu, 25 Sep 2025. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speech. New York Fed President John Williams opening remarks. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speech.** Fed gov. Michael Barr speech. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speech. Fri, 26 Sep 2025. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speech. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speech.** Legend: ** = Trump’s crony It will be interesting to see what (Trump’s latest crony) Stephen Miran has to say on Monday. He was the only dissenter who favoured a larger 50-basis-point (-0.50%) interest rate cut in the September dot plot file. Then there is ‘hardworking’ Michelle Bowman’s triple engagement in a week, on Tuesday, Thursday and Friday. Overall, above reports suggested US economy is slowing with (a) a soft labour market and (b) inflation pressures, and avoiding a recession, so far. Realistically, is a declining US economy and falling US interest rate, be sufficient to keep US thriving and US market rallying into 2026? Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks. Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks. Will NVDA Fall With China's "Ban" ? Fri, 19 September. Pick post. BRK.B: Unexpected Loser of Fed Interest Cut ! Fri, 19 September. Pick post. FIGR - just another Stablecoin IPO. Buy ? Wed, 17 September. Pick post. Do you think a US economy getting weaker can still help businesses keep growing? Do you think this week's reports will show a US economy that is improving or sliding? If you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️ Repost and share the insights ? Do consider “Follow me” and get firsthand read of my daily new post. Thank you. @Daily_Discussion @TigerPM @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerEvents