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10-02

$WTI Crude Oil - main 2511(CLmain)$ $Gold - main 2512(GCmain)$ $Copper - main 2512(HGmain)$ 🔥⚙️🛢 Oil & Copper Have Never Been Cheaper Against Gold 🛢⚙️🔥

I’m seeing one of the most remarkable commodity divergences in decades. Outside of brief COVID dislocations, oil and copper have never been this cheap compared with gold. Historically, this ratio only reaches such extremes during wars, crises, or market dysfunction. Yet today, we’re seeing it in a supposedly “normal” market environment.

🌍 Macro context: Gold’s relentless bid is being driven by central bank hoarding, de-dollarisation trends, political risk hedging, and expectations of rate cuts. In contrast, oil and copper are being treated as expendable inputs in a slowing global economy. This imbalance has echoes of stagflationary dynamics: investors pile into stores of value while de-rating growth-linked resources.

📈 Historical parallels: In past cycles, whenever industrial commodities reached such depressed levels relative to gold, the forward returns on oil and copper were extraordinary once growth expectations stabilised. The market has a habit of overshooting when capital crowds into safety, and the snap-back can be violent.

💡 Strategic lens: This sets up two competing narratives. Either we’re watching the birth of a structural reset where commodities stay permanently cheap against “money metals” in a fractured, slower world; or this is a textbook reversion trade in the making, one where cyclicals dramatically outperform once the next reflation wave begins.

👉❓The critical question: are we at the start of a new monetary regime where gold keeps decoupling from the real economy, or are oil and copper now positioned for one of the greatest relative comebacks of the cycle?

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# Brent Crude Oil Trading at Rare Discount Against Middle East Marker

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  • Kiwi Tigress
    ·10-03
    TOP
    I actually think this is one of those rare setups where people are sleeping on how brutal the catch-up can be. Gold’s running on fear but once growth steadies, the bid for copper and oil could reset valuations across energy and industrials fast
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  • Tui Jude
    ·10-03
    TOP
    What stands out is how investors always overpay for safety and underpay for growth at inflection points. If gold keeps soaking up capital, oil-linked equities like SLB look way too discounted given long-term demand.
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  • Queengirlypops
    ·10-03
    TOP
    This feels like the exact moment where the market’s sleeping on cyclicals. Gold’s hogging the spotlight but cheap oil and copper usually mean upside’s loading. If we get even a hint of stability, these two could explode relative to gold 🧃
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  • Yourstruly
    ·10-08
    TOP
    Typically most comments would make sense. But this is not typical. Gold is bull town candles don’t lie.
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  • Hen Solo
    ·10-03
    TOP
    🌎The dynamic you’ve laid out really echoes a stagflation trade. Gold thrives while growth-linked assets lag, but it never lasts forever. Industrial names tied to copper like RIO could benefit massively if we swing back toward reflation.
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  • Cool Cat Winston
    ·10-03
    📉I can’t get over how extreme this divergence has become. Gold’s basically pricing in endless risk while copper and oil are being left for dead. Reminds me of when FCX got crushed before the rebound that caught everyone off guard.
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  • Norton Rebecca
    ·10-03
    Oil/copper vs gold at decades-low! History says snap-back,loading up CLmain now!
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  • Phyllis Strachey
    ·10-03
    OPEC+’s ramping supply is keeping oil cheap vs gold, not just demand.
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  • Jo Betsy
    ·10-03
    Copper’s LME stocks down 75%—this ratio’s screaming reversion trade!
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  • Reg Ford
    ·10-03
    Central bank hoarding + de-dollarisation! Gold decouples.GCmain’s rally far from over!
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