To The Moon

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ China vehicle registrations totaled 19,300 in the week ended Sept. 28, the strongest performance of the third quarter. The EV giant is expected to report global Q3 deliveries on Thursday. Tesla stock edged higher Tuesday, buoyed by yet another analyst price target hike.

In this article we would like to share the reasoned look at the Tesla Q3 / near-term share price outlook based on the data and market commentary that we have looked up.

What the data / industry signals suggest

China registrations & momentum

Tesla’s China operations ended Q3 with a strong finish: in the week of September 22–28, there were 19,300 new vehicle registrations (insurance registrations) in China — reportedly the best week of the quarter.

That weekly tally represented an ~11.6% increase over the prior week, and the quarter-to-date registrations in China are up ~26.9% quarter-over-quarter (i.e. vs Q2) but still down ~8–11% year-over-year.

The strong week was partly driven by the new Model Y L variant (a 6-seat, extended-wheelbase version), which is gaining traction in China. Reports say this variant accounted for ~4,000 of the registrations in that week (~20% of that week’s total).

In earlier weeks, Tesla China had seen registrations of ~46,950 units in the first three weeks of September, giving some runway for growth momentum.

So, while China is not fully recovering year-on-year, the sequential momentum is positive.

Thus, for China at least, the data implies that Tesla’s Q3 in China will show a sequential rebound, partly aided by the Model Y L variant. That may help offset weakness elsewhere.

Global deliveries outlook & risks

Analysts expect Tesla’s 3Q deliveries to still face headwinds globally, especially in Europe, where Tesla has struggled. Reuters notes that “analysts believe this sales boost is temporary and anticipate weaker global deliveries in Q3 and potentially Q4.”

Some estimates for Q3 deliveries range around ~441,500 vehicles (down ~6% YoY).

Another bullish view: Canaccord Genuity’s George Gianarikas raised his estimate to ~482,900 vehicles for Q3, signaling a potential upside surprise.

William Blair also reportedly upped its Q3 delivery estimate to ~480,000.

Some commentary argues Tesla could “crush” expectations if China momentum + backloaded deliveries lift the numbers.

But risk remains: EV tax credit expiration, weak European demand, competitive pricing pressure, supply chain or production constraints, and Tesla’s aging product lineup in some markets could suppress upside.

Also, some of the uplift in U.S. may be “pull-forward” purchases ahead of tax credit expiration, not entirely organic new demand. Reuters flags that risk.

Net: the expectations are mixed, with the possibility of a positive surprise (if China performs strongly, deliveries are backloaded, and U.S. pushes) but also meaningful downside if Europe, supply, or competition drag.

What this likely means for Tesla’s share price in October

Given the above, here’s a scenario-based view for October’s price dynamics:

Other factors to watch:

Analyst upgrades / target hikes: Several analysts have already raised their price targets on Tesla recently (e.g. Wedbush boosting to $600, others raising estimates) in anticipation of favorable delivery numbers and longer-term AI/autonomy potential.

Valuation sensitivity: Tesla often trades on forward expectations. A strong earnings / delivery beat can reaccelerate multiple expansion; a miss can compress multiples quickly.

Sentiment & momentum: The stock has already been edging higher this week, likely driven by optimism about Q3 results and target hikes. That momentum might carry some inertia into early October if no negative surprises.

Macro / interest rates: With high valuation, Tesla’s stock is relatively sensitive to shifts in interest rates, investor risk appetite, and market rotation (growth vs value).

Longer-term narrative (autonomy, energy, software): Regardless of Q3 delivery, investor focus may shift more to Tesla’s progress in self-driving, robotaxi, energy products, AI/compute, software margins — which could moderate the near-term delivery reaction.

Overall view & Our estimate

We lean toward Tesla delivering a modest upside surprise in Q3 — not a blowout, but a beat relative to consensus — especially supported by China momentum and possible U.S. pull-forward demand before the tax credit expiration.

If that happens, in October the stock could see upside in the 5–10% range (or more, if surprise is large). But there’s a substantial risk path if global headwinds or execution issues bite.

In the next section, we ran the scenario-based Monte-Carlo simulations for TSLA (Oct 2 → Oct 31, 2025) conditioned on three delivery outcomes.

Here Are The Assumptions

Start price (Oct 1 close): $459.46 (market close Oct 1, 2025).

Horizon: Oct 2 → Oct 31, 2025 (29 days; T ≈ 29/365).

Volatility: 45% annualized (short-term realistic for TSLA).

Model: Immediate delivery-day price jump, then geometric Brownian motion (GBM) through month end.

Scenario specifics:

Beat: immediate +8% jump on delivery day; annual drift +60% thereafter.

In-line: immediate +1% jump; annual drift +5%.

Miss: immediate −7% reaction; annual drift −25%.

Summary results (100,000 sims per scenario)

Key numbers (from simulations):

Beat (jump +8%, mu=+60%)

Median price: ~$516.28; Mean: ~$520.39

Interpretation: Strong chance (>65%) of finishing October up at least 5% if deliveries beat and market holds the reaction.

In-line (jump +1%, mu=+5%)

Median price: ~$462.18; Mean: ~$465.95

Interpretation: Modest tilt toward up; substantial chance (~32%) of a >5% drawdown due to volatility.

Miss (jump −7%, mu=−25%)

Median price: ~$415.52; Mean: ~$419.14

Interpretation: High probability of negative returns in October if deliveries miss and the reaction is negative.

In the next section, we have plotted the simulated final-price distributions for the three scenarios.

What this means

A delivery beat materially increases the odds of a positive October for TSLA — more than half the simulated outcomes are higher than the Oct 1 close.

An in-line print yields a coin-flip outcome with sizeable tail risk due to TSLA’s high volatility.

A miss greatly raises the chance of a down month; downside probability is dominant.

Summary

Tesla is poised to report strong Q3 global deliveries, potentially exceeding the consensus of approximately 445,000 units, with some analysts forecasting figures as high as 465,000 to over 480,000.

This optimism is largely driven by a strong finish in China, where new vehicle registrations surged in September, boosted by the new Model Y L variant. Globally, a pull-forward of demand in the U.S. ahead of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit expiration is also cited as a key factor.

The mixed sentiment from Europe saw Q3 registrations up sequentially but still lower year-over-year in most key markets, though the recent uptick suggests stabilization. The overall bullish outlook on deliveries, combined with recent analyst price target hikes (some to $500 and higher), has fueled a Tesla stock rally throughout September.

As a result, the stock's performance in October will likely be heavily influenced by whether the official Q3 delivery numbers meet or beat these high expectations, which could sustain the positive momentum.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think Tesla could stage a rally if the Q3 global deliveries number surprise and also crush the estimates we have seen so far.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.