To The Moon

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ 💰📈🌀 When Liquidity Overpowers Valuation: The Buffett Indicator at 217% 💰📈🌀

I’m calling it clearly: we are living through the most liquidity-distorted market in modern history, with valuations at 217% of GDP and every major asset class at record highs, and I’m convinced this alignment will define the next great Wall Street cycle.

📊 Valuation at Extremes

The Buffett Indicator has climbed to 217% of GDP as of 30Jun25, sitting more than 2 standard deviations above the long-term trendline. That’s 69% higher than the historical norm. Whenever valuations have reached such extremes in the past: 2000’s dot-com peak or 2021’s liquidity surge, investors eventually faced a brutal reckoning.

✈️ Powell the Pilot

The paradox is that while valuations scream danger, liquidity keeps flooding in. Rate cuts are happening with CPI inflation still running at 4%, double the Fed’s official target. The image of Powell at the cockpit captures it: the system is flying on liquidity autopilot, with dollars raining down as fuel for every asset class.

📈 Milestones in Hyperdrive

The S&P 500 has just crossed 6,700 on 01Oct25; its 7th 100-point milestone this year. The cadence is accelerating; since July, each 100-point move has taken only 11–19 trading days. Including dividends, the S&P has now quadrupled in a decade. This isn’t a normal cycle; it’s liquidity-driven velocity.

🌐 A Perfect Storm of Highs

Stocks: all-time high

Home prices: all-time high

Bitcoin: all-time high

Gold: all-time high

Money supply: all-time high

National debt: all-time high

Inflation: double the Fed’s “target”

Every major financial asset is priced at records simultaneously. That has never happened before without consequences.

🧩 The Central Tension

Liquidity is rewriting the rules while valuations stretch past all known precedents. The question isn’t whether markets are overvalued, they are; it’s how long liquidity can delay gravity.

👉❓ If the Buffett Indicator is now at 217%: nearly twice fair value by Buffett’s own yardstick, are we entering a new era of structurally higher multiples, or simply setting up for the sharpest mean reversion in decades?

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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