$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $Compass, Inc.(COMP)$ $Global X Dow 30 Covered Call ETF(DJIA)$ ๐จ๐๐ฅ Septemberโs Curse Flipped, Octoberโs Reckoning Ahead ๐จ๐๐ฅ
September is usually the graveyard of rallies, but 2025 flipped the curse: $SPX gained 3.5%, $COMP 5.6%, $DJIA 1.9%, the best September since 2010. Traders exhaled. Yet October is where legends are made and portfolios are broken. From 1929 to 1987 to 2008, itโs the month Wall Street fears most. This October brings record valuations, option flows steering price, and a government shutdown ripping out the marketโs compass.
๐จ The Shutdown Twist
With the Bureau of Labor Statistics dark, investors lose payrolls, JOLTS, and wage prints. Instead, markets will be forced to lean on noisier signals:
โข ๐ ADP payrolls: headline but unreliable
โข ๐ Homebase hours/shifts: near real-time but narrow
โข ๐ผ Job postings: Indeed & LinkUp, often turning early
โข ๐ต Wage trackers: Atlanta Fed, ADP, Indeed indexes
โข ๐ป Layoffs & sentiment: Challenger cuts, NFIB surveys, ISM sub-indexes
โ ๏ธ In normal times these are background noise. In a shutdown, every one becomes a potential volatility trigger. Expect whipsaw moves around data traders usually ignore.
๐ก Valuation Stress
The S&P 500 now trades at 3.33ร sales, the highest in history. Long-term median: 1.60. Jerome Powell already warned that โequity prices are fairly highly valued.โ At these extremes, markets donโt wait for a crisis; any catalyst will do.
โ๏ธ Options Mechanics
Todayโs $SPX rally wasnโt luck. It tracked perfectly with dealer positioning. The $6,715 strike built the heaviest gamma cluster, locking flows into support. Net Delta and Vanna exposures reinforced that zone. Right now, itโs not earnings or GDP driving intraday price; itโs options rails. Gamma walls are the new fundamentals.
๐ Echo of 2018
The last shutdown in Dec 2018 lasted 34 days. $SPX and $QQQ cracked hard into year-end, with both breaking key technical shelves. Valuations then were closer to 2.0ร sales. Today theyโre 3.33ร. If history rhymes, the fall could be faster, the air pocket deeper, the panic sharper.
๐ October Scenarios
โข If breadth climbs above 70% and NDX momentum stays pinned at 5, $SPX has room to push toward 6,800โ6,850.
โข If breadth erodes further and VIX breaks 21, expect a slide to the 6,600 shelf.
๐ Visual Proof: The 2018 Breakdown
Look at the crash dynamics from the last shutdown:
โข $SPX collapsed through 2,400 before recovering in January.
โข $QQQ traced a near -23% drawdown in six weeks.
Todayโs setup is eerily similar, only valuations are more extreme and gamma is tighter.
๐ฅ The High-Conviction Take
This isnโt just another October. Itโs a test of credibility. AI euphoria has carried markets to record multiples, but shutdown distortions, fragile internals, and options-driven rails create an unstable structure. October is a coiled spring: either we break higher on liquidity and positioning, or we face a credibility reset that echoes 2018 and worse.
๐โWhich side of the spring are you positioned for: the wall of worry climb, or the reset no oneโs pricing in?
๐ข Donโt miss out! Like, Repost and Follow me for exclusive setups, cutting-edge trends, and insights that move markets ๐๐ Iโm obsessed with hunting down the next big movers and sharing strategies that crush it. Letโs outsmart the market and stack those gains together! ๐
Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC ๐๐๐๐๐
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- Kiwi Tigressยท10-02TOPI feel like this post nails the tension between AI hype and the fragility under the surface. The shutdownโs forcing us to rely on sketchier proxies and the 2018 comparison just screams risk, so seeing breadth and VIX as the pivot points makes a lot of sense.2Report
- Queengirlypopsยท10-02TOPLowkey wild how the $SPX is at record sales multiples and people still acting like gamma walls mean weโre invincible. The 2018 vibe you dropped hits hard because shutdown volatility plus inflated valuations is exactly how fast things can snap back ๐ง2Report
- Cool Cat Winstonยท10-02TOPI like how you tied the gamma wall at 6,715 into market structure because it shows just how much options are driving the rails. Reminds me of how $NVDA kept grinding higher this year even when fundamentals looked stretched, it was flows dictating the pace.2Report
- Tui Judeยท10-02TOP๐ The shutdown twist is spot on, losing payrolls and JOLTS shifts the market to ADP and Homebase which are shaky at best. I can see why you linked it back to 2018 because $QQQโs collapse then is exactly what thinner valuations couldnโt absorb.6Report
- Hen Soloยท10-02TOPโ๏ธ The valuation callout hit me hardest, 3.33x sales versus a 1.6x median is insane when Powell is already hinting at fragility. Itโs the same dynamic we saw with $AMZN when multiples outran reality and even small catalysts sparked outsized reactions.4Report
- Mortimer Arthurยท10-02TOPSo many big tech mega cap stocks up over 70% in the past six months. crazy when so many were already trillion dollar companies.1Report
- Valerie Archibaldยท10-02Imagine being a government worker right now and now you have money and no job. And youโre buying at the top of the market. Sus.LikeReport