$Firefly Aerospace Inc.(FLY)$ $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$ $AST SpaceMobile, Inc.(ASTS)$ 🚀 $FLY sank -21% to $29.24 on 29Sep after its Alpha rocket booster exploded mid-test. IPO’d in Aug at $45, ripped to an ATH of $73.80, and is now down -37% MTD.
🔥 Options activity was intense, with 10x average volume; Feb 40C the most traded strike, mostly selling to open. Short-term traders are leaning bearish while implied vols remain surprisingly muted. SVI at 71% signals cheap vols despite heavy carnage.
📉 The stock is on the SSR (Short Sale Restriction) list. That kicks in once a name falls >10% intraday; shorts can’t hit bids on downticks, only on upticks. It doesn’t erase bearish pressure, but it changes the cadence of how shorts build positions.
📊 Short interest remains elevated with a ~20% short ratio and open SI above 2M shares. Days to cover recently ticked up over 2.6, which means if a positive catalyst emerges, a squeeze could get violent. For now, daily and 4H charts show relentless downside with candles hugging the lower Keltner and Bollinger bands, slicing beneath all EMAs.
👉❓Does the SSR plus rising days-to-cover hint at a rebound setup, or is $FLY still firmly in gravity’s grip until fundamentals re-ignite?
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- Queengirlypops·10-01TOPThat 29th flush was brutal man, FLY candles just hugged the basement of the bands all session. Options volume blowing up 10x is insane too, cheap vols got everyone piling in. Shorts might be comfy now but if days-to-cover stretches, this thing could rip quick1Report
- Hen Solo·10-01TOP🔬What stood out was the days to cover creeping up over 2.6. That’s classic squeeze fuel if sentiment shifts, like we saw in $GME’s early run. But right now, with EMAs breaking down across the board, I’d argue momentum sellers still control the trend short term.2Report
- Tui Jude·10-01TOP🚀I get your point on vols being cheap here. When I saw SVI at 71% on a -23% day, it reminded me of $TSLA back in 2020 when implieds lagged reality. Options desks might be pricing calm, but those Feb 40C flows scream traders see more downside before any bounce.1Report
- Cool Cat Winston·10-01TOP📉That SSR explanation really hit me. I’ve seen the same rhythm shifts play out in names like $COIN after big flushes. The uptick rule slows the bleed but it doesn’t change direction unless volume flips. FLY’s setup feels like pressure stacked with no floor yet.1Report
- Mortimer Arthur·10-01drop not surprising. the surprise was it went so high in the first place. it's still way overvalued by at least 25%LikeReport
- Venus Reade·10-01FLY is similar to LUNRLikeReport