🚢📊💰 Carnival Corp Q3 Earnings: Record Profits, Big Swings, and Dark Pool Surprises 💰📊🚢

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09-30

$Carnival(CCL)$ $Norwegian Cruise Line(NCLH)$ $Royal Caribbean Cruises(RCL)$ I’m convinced Carnival is no longer just a recovery trade; it’s evolving into a structural profitability story with record bookings, accelerating deleveraging, and visible catalysts stretching through 2027.

Carnival Corporation ($CCL) lit up the tape in Q3-25 with record revenue and net income, beating on every metric and lifting FY25 guidance for the third straight time. Yet while fundamentals are roaring, heavy block trades and a technical breakdown slammed the stock nearly 4% lower into the close. This sets up a classic clash between fundamentals and flows heading into Q4.

📈 Q3 Results: Crushing Guidance and Setting Records

Adjusted EPS printed $1.43 versus $1.30 guided (a 10% beat). Revenue reached $8.15B (+3% YoY), adjusted net income soared to $1.9B versus $1.8B guided, and adjusted EBITDA came in at $3.0B versus $2.9B. Net yields rose 4.6% versus 3.5% guided, and costs ex-fuel dropped 5.5% versus 7% guided. Customer deposits swelled to $7.1B (+11% YoY) with occupancy at 112%.

🔮 FY25 Outlook and Q4 Hook

Carnival raised full-year metrics again: net yields ~5.3%, adjusted EBITDA ~$7.1B, adjusted net income ~$2.9B, adjusted EPS ~$2.14 versus prior $1.97. Q4 outlook flags net yields +4.3% vs Q4 2024 and adjusted net income of approximately $300M, up over 60% YoY; a powerful setup for the holiday booking season.

🐂 Bull Drivers: Pricing Power, Deleveraging, Visibility

Historic price levels for 2026 bookings are broad-based across North America and Europe. The booking window is the longest on record. Celebration Key is now live with rave reviews, contributing to yields and onboard spend. Net debt/EBITDA improved to 3.6x as Carnival refinanced $4.5B and prepaid $0.7B. Limited capacity growth plus new destinations underpin forward revenue growth. Capital return potential is now visible, with dividends the likely first step.

🐻 Bear Concerns: Macro, Flows, and Technicals

Macroeconomic and geopolitical volatility caused booking softness in April. That risk remains. More pressing for traders, the daily candle broke the 50DMA and the “down through three Mas 1” candlestick signal flashed. The next major support sits near $28.

📊 Tape and Flow: Hedge Funds Move Fast

Dark pool and block trade data exploded today: 1.35M shares at $31.67 for $42M (8.22% AvgVol), another 1.07M for $34M (6.56% AvgVol), plus a $30M print at $31.98 (5.73% AvgVol). After hours, two massive 2.14M-share prints hit at $29.40 totaling $62.9M. The precision selling near the bid with minimal slippage signals large funds unwinding pre-earnings longs.

🕵️‍♂️ Options Action: Premium Evaporates

$30 calls expiring 10/03 collapsed 63% to $0.67 with bid 1,142 and ask 5,368. Candle volume 5,065 contracts with $354,564 premium; daily volume 6,903 contracts with $527,088 premium. Short-term speculators got flushed, creating a potential contrarian setup if fundamentals reassert.

🔍 Analyst Sentiment: Still Bullish Despite Pullback

Average price target $33.55 implies 14% upside with highs at $43. Historical average upside sits at 17.08%. JPMorgan raised PT to $42, Goldman to $37. Analyst ratings: 32% strong buy, 46% buy, 21% hold. Citi’s James Hardiman: “a company that’s gaining share inside of a segment that’s gaining share.”

🎯 Big Picture: Fundamentals Igniting While Technicals Reset

Carnival just posted all-time record net income, raised guidance across the board, and has unprecedented 2026, 2027 visibility. Deleveraging accelerates, and capital returns are in sight. Yet heavy post-earnings prints and a technical breakdown mean near-term volatility. For long-term investors, the bull case has never looked stronger; for traders, $28 is the level to watch.

👉❓With Q4 yields set to rise another 4.3% and record 2026, 2027 bookings locked in, do the big funds snap this back above $33.55 or does the $28 support get stress-tested first?

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

@Tiger_Earnings @Tiger_comments @TigerPM @TigerStars @TigerObserver @1PC 

# 💰Stocks to watch today?(15 Dec)

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Comment（9）

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  • Hen Solo
    ·10-01
    TOP
    🌟🌟🌟 I’m struck by how clear you made the distinction between structural cost savings and timing-related expenses. That’s the kind of nuance analysts miss when they gloss over margins. It reminded me of how $DAL broke out when they proved cost discipline was long term, not temporary!
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  • Kiwi Tigress
    ·09-30
    TOP
    I love how you broke down those dark pool prints because it’s wild seeing $62.9M blocks dump right after Carnival put up record guidance and raised outlook again. That kind of flow screams short-term positioning rather than a change in the bigger picture. Fundamentals are clearly ramping with record bookings into 2026 and even 2027, plus Celebration Key already driving incremental yield. It makes me think traders are way too focused on the ugly daily candle and the break under the 50DMA when the real story is visibility and deleveraging. That $28 level feels like the battleground where hedge funds are pressing, but if it holds, the rebound could be sharp with analysts still targeting $33 to $40
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  • Queengirlypops
    ·09-30
    TOP
    I’m locked in on how you called out the “down through three Mas 1” signal, that’s the kind of detail nobody drops. With $CCL stacking record bookings into 2027 it’s crazy that hedge funds dumped right into strength. $28 feels like the dip level everyone’s watching heavy.
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  • Cool Cat Winston
    ·10-01
    TOP
    📉I’m fascinated by how you tied the $62.9M after-hours prints to hedge fund positioning. That’s exactly the kind of tape-reading edge I look for in $RCL when blocks hit. The $28 support callout really stood out to me as the level institutions will defend or abandon.
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  • Tui Jude
    ·10-01
    TOP
    🚢I’m impressed with how you framed Celebration Key as a real revenue driver instead of just marketing hype. I keep thinking about how $NCLH has struggled to find that kind of unique destination leverage, which makes Carnival’s execution here feel like a genuine differentiator!
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  • 1PC
    ·09-30
    TOP
    Nice Sharing 😊 @JC888 @Shernice軒嬣 2000 @Aqa @DiAngel @koolgal @Shyon
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  • Merle Ted
    ·10-01
    The new notes will be reduced expenses from $120mil to $64mil yearly. So basically saving $56mil annually..!!

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  • Valerie Archibald
    ·10-01
    Grabbed another 100 shares on the dip and June calls

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  • Queengirlypops
    ·09-30

    Great article, would you like to share it?

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