To The Moon

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ has rallied 30% this month ahead of global third-quarter vehicle deliveries in early October, with analysts handing the EV giant a slew of price-target hikes in recent weeks. On Friday, a Tesla stock super bull said he sees 40% upside based almost entirely on the company's robotaxi rollout.

Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, a long-time Tesla bull, on Friday raised his price target to 600, up from 500. That would be a 42% bump compared with the price at Thursday's stock market close. The 600 price target is also 23% higher than Tesla stock's all-time high of 488.54, which it hit in December 2024.

"We believe Tesla is taking major steps in advancing its AI Revolution path with autonomous and robotics front and center heading into 2026 that will be a game-changer and define Tesla's future," Ives wrote Friday.

Ives added that CEO Elon Musk is "driving Tesla into its next stage of growth" and that he expects the company's "robotaxis" to be "rolled out aggressively to over 30 U.S. cities within the next year."

"We estimate the AI and autonomous opportunity is worth at least $1 trillion alone for Tesla and we fully expect under a Trump White House over the coming year these key initiatives will now get fast-tracked," the analyst wrote.

Ives estimates that Tesla will own around 70% of the global autonomous vehicle market over the next 10 years and that Tesla's full self-driving, or FSD, feature could see an increase in penetration of more than 50%, changing the financial model and margins for the company.

The bullish note from Ives comes as Tesla stock has received 10 price target increases so far in September, according to FactSet, among overwhelming optimism for the stock.

Tesla Q3 Deliveries Upcoming

With analysts seeing Tesla stock hitting new record highs, investors await Tesla's third-quarter global vehicle deliveries release next week. The prevailing sentiment is that it will be a strong quarter, with U.S. consumers deciding to take advantage of the $7,500 EV tax credit before it ends on Sept. 30.

Officially, analyst consensus has global Tesla Q3 vehicle deliveries coming in around 448,000, according to FactSet. That would be about 17% above the second-quarter total but still down 3% vs. Q3 2024. Few analysts have updated Q3 delivery targets since late July, however. 

More-recent estimates point to deliveries closer to 500,000.

U.S. EV deliveries are expected to plunge after the tax credit expires on Sept. 30.

平衡观点：特斯拉2025年第三季度交付量预测和盈利

Tesla updated its website over the weekend showing that customers can still take advantage of the tax credit if they order a vehicle by Sept. 30. The IRS revised guidance about expiring EV tax credits in late August.

That will provide a slight boost to U.S. sales in October.

What Analysts Think

Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu on Friday raised the firm's price target on Tesla to 435 from 345, expecting 461,500 deliveries for Q3, roughly flat year-over-year but up 20% quarter-over-quarter.

Meanwhile, Piper Sandler recently projected 495,000 Q3 deliveries while GLJ Research forecasts 467,000. Kalshi prediction market is pegging deliveries at 505,000 units.

UBS analysts on Tuesday predicted that Tesla Q3 deliveries will come in at 475,000, up from its prior view of 431,000. While Q3 is expected to see robust Tesla demand, the fourth quarter and 2026 is forecast to fall off. For Q4, UBS forecasts 428,000 deliveries, down 14% vs. a year ago and down 10% quarter over quarter.

Mizuho also on Tuesday raised its Tesla stock price target to 450 from 375, noting that U.S. tariffs should have a minimal impact on new vehicle prices and that consumers appear to be buying EVs before the tax credit ends.

A week ago, Baird analyst Ben Kallo upgraded Tesla to outperform from neutral with a price target of 548, up from 320. Kallo wrote that Tesla's vehicle volumes will likely decline again in 2025 and near-term fundamentals "will be choppy," but that TSLA could outperform as Tesla is increasingly viewed as the leader in physical artificial intelligence.

Tesla Stock Performance

TSLA advanced 4% to 440.40 during Friday's stock market after falling 4.4% on Thursday. Tesla stock was up 32% in September at Friday's market close, finishing the week with a 3.4% gain.

At Friday's close, Tesla was just 11% below all-time highs.

Shares jumped 7.6% last week to 426.07, following Musk's disclosure of $1 billion worth of share buys. In the prior week, Tesla stock surged 12.85%, racing out of a consolidation buy point of 367.71, according to MarketSurge charts.

At this point, investors looking to start a position should see if Tesla pulls back or perhaps forges a handle to a consolidation going back to end of last year.

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