To The Moon

$Apollo Global Management LLC(APO)$ $KKR & Co LP(KKR)$ $Blackstone Group LP(BX)$ 

I’ve just moved Apollo Global Management to the very top of my watchlist and I have high conviction that this setup can deliver one of the most powerful breakouts into year-end.

🚦 Pattern Resolution & Inflection Metrics

Apollo has resolved into a textbook Cup & Handle. The handle’s 38.2% retracement aligns with the prior swing low, retested on declining volume, confirming absorption without broad distribution. The measured move from $112 (Q1 2025 low) to $146 projects $165, with a 1.618 extension to $185. Near term, 4H Keltner (2.25 ATR) and Bollinger (2σ) have compressed to a 1.8% bandwidth, a setup for volatility expansion. Supports: $138–140 (Fib 50% + inflection zone), $136 (200-day EMA), $133 (density shelf). Resistances: $142, $146, $150, and $154. A weekly close above $154 on >1.5× volume historically precedes 20–25% moves in APO’s cycles.

🏦 Institutional Positioning & Short Dynamics

The base is wide. 2,066 funds own APO; top 10 (Vanguard 8.2%, BlackRock 6.1%) control 42% of float. Short interest is ~7.5% of float, days-to-cover at 9.55, with utilization >90%. September short-volume spikes clustered at intraday lows and triggered 3–5% reflex rallies as covers cascaded. The borrow curve sits elevated (0.85% rebate cost), adding convexity if the pattern resolves bullishly, echoing Q4 2024 when an unwind added 15% to APO’s monthly range.

💰 Athene’s Yield Engine

Athene’s fixed-income book (97% IG) still generates a 1.22% net spread even with Treasury compression. Fee-related earnings (FRE) and spread-related earnings (SRE) keep a 96% rolling correlation, a rare >95% synchrony that reinforces compounding. H1 2025 gross inflows annualized at $42B (28% CAGR since 2016), split 62% retirement services and 38% capital markets. Athene’s $311.4B admitted assets versus $254.6B reserve liabilities gives Apollo embedded leverage and reinvestment optionality across 3–5 year maturities. This is the annuity machine underwriting the entire platform.

🌊 Hornsea 3 Catalyst: Energy Transition Arbitrage

Ørsted’s deleveraging (net debt/EBITDA 3.8×, $2.1B capex overrun) puts its 2.9 GW Hornsea 3 offshore project up for sale. Apollo is in talks for a 50% stake (~£4.25B EV). For APO, the deal would accrete at 12–14% unlevered IRR, anchored by inflation-linked UK CfDs at £57.66/MWh, neatly matching Athene’s liability profile. Compared to Brookfield’s 11% IRR or Blackstone’s 13% blended infra book, Hornsea is a discounted entry into energy transition cash flows. Layered with $61B dry powder, Apollo could bolt on adjacencies in HVDC or storage. This is how a private equity manager evolves into an infrastructure powerhouse.

🔋 Tesla Megapack Link

Hornsea 3 is not just an offshore wind farm; it is also being paired with a 600 MWh Tesla Megapack battery system, designed to store excess wind and solar power and discharge later to balance the UK grid. While this was first announced in June 2024, the project remains on track for commissioning in 2026. If Apollo secures its 50% stake, it indirectly becomes a financial backer of one of Tesla’s largest energy storage deployments in Europe. For Tesla ($TSLA), it reinforces the narrative that its energy business is scaling alongside its automotive and AI story, embedding Megapack as critical grid infrastructure. For Apollo, it adds exposure to a world-class renewable plus storage platform, effectively partnering capital with Tesla technology.

📊 Valuation & Peer Lens

• Consensus PT: $165.27

• Range: $154 – $178

• Argus high: $185

• Analyst Sentiment:

🟢🟢 50% Buy

🟢 25% Strong Buy

🟠 25% Hold

🔴 0% Sell

• Valuation Metrics (current price $139):

• Forward P/E: 17.9× (KKR 19.2×, BX 21.4×)

• P/B: 4.44

• P/S: 3.16

• EV/EBITDA: ~14.2× (18% below peer median)

• Dividend Yield: 1.4% (raised 10% in 2025)

• Dry Powder Efficiency:

• APO: $61B (8.6% of AUM)

• KKR: 16.8% of AUM

• BX: 15.0% of AUM

➡️ Takeaway: APO’s capital is more actively deployed than peers, which is why FRE is growing 22% YoY, ahead of the group.

🎯 Position Architecture

🔵 Stability / Floor (Support)

$138–140 (Fib + inflection zone)

$136 (200-day EMA)

$133 (volume density shelf)

🔴 Stop / Danger Zone

Close below $133 on volume invalidates setup → next test mid-$120s

🟠 Alert / Ignition (Breakout Triggers)

$142 (handle high)

$146 (gap fill pivot)

$150 (round level)

$154 (weekly pivot: ignition level; close above on >1.5× volume unlocks momentum)

🟢 Profit / Go (Upside Targets)

$165 (measured Cup & Handle move)

$175 (swing extension)

$185 (1.618 Fib extension + Argus PT)

Historical pattern resolutions: 26% average gain, 68% win rate when breaking >$154 with strong volume.

🔑 Conclusion

The technical structure is clear, the fundamental engine is intact, and the Hornsea pivot adds optionality peers can’t match. The only question: when does the market start pricing Apollo as the most efficient allocator in alternatives, not the discounted one?

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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