To The Moon

$Intel(INTC)$  

⚡ Intel’s Revenge Comeback? Can the Sleeping Giant Rise Again in 2025?

🚀 Introduction – From Fallen Titan to Underdog Story

Not long ago, Intel was the king of chips. Its dominance in PCs and data centers felt unshakable. But over the past decade, the crown slipped:

Apple ($Apple(AAPL)$  ) ditched Intel for its own M-series chips.

AMD ($Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$  ) ate into Intel’s CPU market with superior designs.

Nvidia ($NVIDIA(NVDA)$  ) captured the AI crown, becoming Wall Street’s darling.

Intel, once the leader, became the laggard.

Now, with rumors of Intel approaching Apple for closer collaboration and a potential investment, plus renewed focus on its foundry ambitions, the stock jumped 6% in a single day.

The big question: Is this Intel’s long-awaited “revenge arc” — or just another short-lived headline bounce?

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1️⃣ Why Intel Still Matters (Even After Years of Pain)

Despite its struggles, Intel isn’t just another chipmaker:

Market Cap: ~$116B — still massive scale.

PC & Server Legacy: Millions of devices still rely on Intel chips.

CHIPS Act Backing: Billions in U.S. subsidies support Intel’s push for onshore chip manufacturing.

Foundry Ambitions: Intel aims to challenge TSMC ($TSM) as a global manufacturer, not just a chip designer.

💡 Intel may have lost the innovation crown, but its geopolitical importance makes it too strategic to ignore.

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2️⃣ The Catalysts Sparking Hope

Apple Rumors: If Intel regains even a slice of Apple’s chip business, it would restore confidence in its relevance.

Foundry Strategy: Intel wants to manufacture chips for others — a bold pivot from competitor to service provider.

AI Aspirations: Intel’s Gaudi chips and accelerator push may not rival Nvidia yet, but they offer optionality.

Valuation Appeal: Trading near $30, Intel looks cheap compared to peers, even if growth lags.

💡 One big deal, or one foundry breakthrough, could flip sentiment fast.

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3️⃣ The Bull Case – Intel’s Path to Redemption

Deep Value Play: Intel trades at a steep discount vs. Nvidia/AMD, attracting patient value investors.

Government Tailwind: The U.S. sees Intel as critical to national security — political backing matters.

Execution Leverage: Even modest success in foundries or AI could unlock upside.

Apple Partnership (If Real): A renewed Apple tie-up would be a symbolic comeback, not just financial.

For bulls, Intel isn’t about beating Nvidia — it’s about proving it can survive, adapt, and thrive again.

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4️⃣ The Bear Case – The “Value Trap” Argument

Execution Doubts: Intel has repeatedly missed technology roadmaps. Trust is thin.

Apple Skepticism: Talks may fizzle; Apple rarely backtracks once it builds in-house solutions.

Competition Relentless: Nvidia’s dominance in AI and AMD’s gains in CPUs aren’t slowing down.

Structural Decline: Intel’s PC-heavy legacy may keep dragging growth.

For bears, Intel is “cheap for a reason” — not a turnaround, but a slow bleed masked by occasional headlines.

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5️⃣ My Reflection – Investing in Fallen Giants

I’ve fallen for “fallen titan” stories before. In 2018, I bought Intel thinking it was “too cheap to fail.” What I learned: cheap isn’t enough. Without execution, value can erode for years.

But I’ve also seen giants rebound: think Microsoft ($MSFT) after its lost decade. The right leadership, focus, and execution can turn a laggard into a market star again.

💡 Intel today feels like a coin flip between value trap and turnaround — but one with huge geopolitical backing.

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6️⃣ Conclusion – Revenge Arc or False Hope?

Intel still matters geopolitically and strategically, even if it’s no longer the innovation leader.

A potential Apple partnership + foundry pivot could fuel a “revenge comeback” narrative.

But until execution improves, Intel remains a show-me story — not yet a proven turnaround.

💡 Key Takeaways:

1. Intel is undervalued, but cheapness alone doesn’t guarantee upside.

2. Apple + foundry headlines could spark rallies, but delivery is what counts.

3. The stock sits at a crossroads: $40 if confidence builds, $25 if doubts win out

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