Tesla's Delivery Tsunami: 475K Q3 Bombshell Ignites $500 Sprint – $488 Eclipse Incoming?

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Wall Street's crystal ball just shattered—Goldman and UBS cranked Tesla's Q3 deliveries to 475,000 units, torching consensus by 8% and whispering records louder than a Cybertruck exhaust note. That's no fluke; it's the IRA tax credit frenzy sucking in buyers before the September 30 cliff, layered with Model Y refreshes and China registrations spiking like a viral meme. Shares? Up 4% to $442.79 close, momentum coiling for a breakout that could make 2021's $488 peak look like a speed bump. Wolfe Research piles on, eyeing upside surprises that flip the script on EV slowdown fears.

Surpassing $488? Lock in Q4 2025—Piper Sandler's fresh $500 target screams it, fueled by Robotaxi unveilings and FSD v13 rolling out unsupervised autonomy by year-end. Baird's $548 bull case? That's your North Star, with AI inference chips and Dojo superclusters turning Tesla into an unstoppable compute colossus. Volatility's your ally: dips to $420 are buy-the-fear setups, as global fleet data feeds the flywheel toward trillion-dollar valuations.

Bullish on new growth engines? Abso-freakin-lutely. Robotaxi fleets hit Austin streets July 2025, scaling to 1 million units annually by 2030 with 45% software margins exploding revenue. Optimus? Musk's betting 80% of Tesla's worth on these bi-pedal beasts—10,000 prototypes cranking by December, morphing factories into robot hives that slash costs 30%. FSD's 10x parameter leap in six weeks? That's the autonomy nuke, unsupervised in China by October, ride-hailing royalties pouring in. Semi ramps and energy storage (Megapacks up 150% YoY) aren't side gigs—they're the octane for 50% CAGR through 2027.

Add or exit at $443? Load the wagon— this level's a steal at 65x forward earnings when AI adjacency pencils to $1,000+ long-term. Bull run's ignition phase, not exhaust fumes; Q3 beat catalysts Robotaxi hype, then Optimus demos flip shorts into rocket fuel. Exit? Only if you're allergic to 200% upside. Average in on pullbacks, because Tesla's not building cars—it's architecting the autonomous empire.

Game on: Deliveries drop October 2 could launch this to lunar orbit. Your position locked, or scouting entry? Spill it.

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  • Wade Shaw
    ·09-25
    $548 target’s bold, but where’s the profit growth to back that valuation?
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  • Ron Anne
    ·09-25
    Tesla’s Q3 delivery hype is real, but 65x forward earnings is way overstretched.
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  • FSD v13’s unsupervised, but has Tesla fixed the safety concerns yet?
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  • TODAMOON
    ·09-25
    This analysis is electric
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  • AuntieAaA
    ·09-26
    Good
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