To The Moon

$Adobe(ADBE)$ $Salesforce.com(CRM)$ $UiPath(PATH)$ I’m identifying three punished software leaders where valuation dislocations have created high-conviction entry points: Adobe ($ADBE), Salesforce ($CRM), and UiPath ($PATH). The market has priced in short-term disappointment, but the underlying moat strength, free cash flow durability, and ecosystem entrenchment remain intact. This is the type of setup where institutional buyers quietly accumulate ahead of multi-year compounding.

🎨 Adobe ($ADBE)

Adobe commands 42% of the creative software market. Creative Cloud is the global benchmark, with subscription revenue accounting for 74% of sales in Digital Media and 25% in Digital Experience. The consistency is striking: revenue has grown every year since 2016, free cash flow has expanded in lockstep, and gross margins remain resilient.

The chart illustrates revenue growing from $5.85B in 2017 to $21.5B in 2023, with estimates near $32.85B by 2029. Free cash flow is forecast to reach $12.54B by 2029, almost double from 2025. Shares still trade near 2022 levels; at that same valuation reset, the stock went on to rally 2.5x within 24 months.

Peer comparison: Canva has traction in consumer design, but Adobe’s dominance in enterprise workflows makes switching costs prohibitive. Generative AI integration extends this advantage.

Technicals: ADBE trades at $361 inside Keltner and Bollinger compression. A breakout above $370 targets $382; support rests at $350.

☁️ Salesforce ($CRM)

Salesforce’s platform has become indispensable. With 45% market share in customer service software, Service Cloud anchors its position. The ecosystem effect is clear: AppExchange integrations create switching costs, and adoption of Agentforce AI shows real-world ROI. Bookings surged 120% YoY, Data Cloud ARR grew 140% YoY to $1.2B, and resolution rates stand at 77%.

The chart shows revenue rising from $8.39B in 2018 to $34.86B in 2024, with projections of $60.1B by 2030. Free cash flow is expected to approach $17B while maintaining gross margins above 80%.

Peer comparison: ServiceNow is a competitor in workflows, yet Salesforce’s breadth across Sales, Service, and Marketing creates a deeper moat and higher stickiness.

Technicals: Consolidation at $244 with support at $238. Break above $252 signals momentum continuation.

🤖 UiPath ($PATH)

UiPath represents the most asymmetric opportunity. As the global leader in robotic process automation, its self-reinforcing data loop creates structural advantage: more automation data means better AI optimization, which in turn drives more adoption. Nearly 1M agent runs and 170K processes highlight unmatched dataset depth.

The valuation chart projects annualized returns between 5% and 8.6% through 2031, even on conservative assumptions. Management repurchased 8.3M shares at $12.10, above current levels, signalling conviction. Retention remains best-in-class at 98%.

Peer comparison: Automation Anywhere and Blue Prism lack UiPath’s retention and integration breadth. Partnerships with SAP, Microsoft, and Oracle further institutionalize PATH as the default RPA layer.

Technicals: PATH trades at $12.53 after testing $13.20. Keltner expansion with higher lows indicates potential momentum reload above $12.

💡 The opportunity here is not about timing a perfect quarter; it’s about recognizing where durable moats intersect with valuation resets. Adobe compounds through consistency, Salesforce monetizes network effects, and UiPath offers asymmetric automation upside. This is where patient capital finds its edge.

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