To The Moon

$Firefly Aerospace Inc.(FLY)$ $AST SpaceMobile, Inc.(ASTS)$ $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$ I’m calling this quarter a defining inflection for Firefly Aerospace. The company has flipped from survival mode to scale mode in one stroke. With $933M in IPO proceeds and a $1.3B backlog anchored by NASA, Firefly now holds one of the most enviable financial cushions and contract pipelines in the new space sector. The equity story has shifted: this isn’t about whether Firefly can fund its roadmap, it’s about how fast it can execute on Alpha, Eclipse, and Blue Ghost to convert backlog into recurring revenue.

💰 Post-IPO Runway

Firefly’s IPO delivered $933M net, while Northrop Grumman added $50M. Balance sheet cash stood at $205M pre-IPO, removing liquidity risk and creating a multi-year runway. That runway funds Alpha’s scaling, Eclipse’s debut, and Blue Ghost’s lunar missions. Shares listed on Nasdaq last month at $45, closing day one at $60.35.

📦 Backlog Conversion

Q2 ended with $1.12B in backlog, surging to $1.3B post-quarter end. NASA’s $176.7M Blue Ghost Mission 4 and DoD’s Elytra Mission 3 contract added critical visibility. Earlier this year, Firefly successfully guided its Blue Ghost lander to the Moon in a NASA-funded mission, marking the first fully successful commercial lunar landing. This week, NASA added $10M to extend that mission for additional science and operational data. Backlog conversion into revenue is now the defining execution test.

🔥 Operational Momentum

FAA cleared Alpha for “Return to Flight,” while Miranda completed 95 hot fire tests, de-risking Eclipse’s 2026 debut. The company testified before Congress on Blue Ghost Mission 1, began assembly of Mission 2, and unveiled Ocula, a high-resolution imaging service. These milestones prove Firefly isn’t just raising cash; it’s delivering tangible progress that strengthens trust with NASA and DoD stakeholders.

📉 Revenue Dip and Cash Burn

Q2 revenue fell 26% YoY to $15.5M, missing analyst estimates of $16.8M. Net loss widened to $80.3M, or -$5.78 per share, versus a $58.7M loss (-$4.60) last year. Spacecraft Solutions revenue plunged 49% YoY after lapping a one-off mission, masking Alpha’s 113% YoY growth. H1 cash burn hit $84.6M. IPO runway absorbs it for now, but moderation is essential.

📊 Guidance Watch

FY25 revenue guide of $133M–$145M implies H2 revenue of $61.6M–$73.6M versus H1’s $71.4M. Analysts’ consensus stands at $138.5M. Either management is sandbagging cadence expectations, or contract lumpiness is more significant than bulls anticipate. Investors will demand clarity.

📈 Technical Setup

Daily chart shows $FLY breaking out +9.6% to $49.52 with expanding Keltner and Bollinger bands. The 4H confirms strong candles pressing upper bands with volume support. Holding $47 keeps momentum intact. Resistance sits at $, 53 and $58, with a stretch to $62 if follow-through persists. After-hours, shares dropped 12.4% to $43.36, highlighting the tension between long-term optionality and short-term lumpiness.

🔎 Analyst View

Roth MKM reiterated a Buy rating on Firefly with a $60 price target, signalling confidence that near-term volatility doesn’t alter the upside case. That aligns with breakout resistance levels and gives investors a clear benchmark against current pricing.

📊 Segment Snapshot

🚀 Launch: +22.8% QoQ / +113.1% YoY

🛰️ Spacecraft Solutions: -81.8% QoQ / -49.1% YoY

📉 Total: -72.2% QoQ / -26.2% YoY

📈 Margins: +25.7% gross, -349.5% operating, -516.2% net, -308.1% EBITDA, -239.7% FCF

👉❓With $1.3B backlog, $933M IPO runway, FAA clearance, and a proven Moon landing, does Firefly finally have the pieces in place to scale sustainably, or will cash burn and contract lumpiness weigh heavier than investors expect?

The story has shifted decisively. Near-term pain is clear in revenue and EPS, but the long-term bull case rests on backlog conversion, IPO runway strength, Eclipse’s upcoming debut, and validated credibility with NASA, DoD, and Northrop. Technical milestones reinforce progress, and the $10M NASA extension proves customer stickiness. These are not predictions; they’re probability-weighted frameworks. And the weight is shifting in Firefly’s favour.

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