To The Moon

$Micron Technology(MU)$ is scheduled to report its fiscal fourth-quarter and full fiscal year 2025 earnings on Tuesday, September 23, 2025, after the market closes.

Here is an analysis of what to watch for in the upcoming report and potential trading opportunities.

Revenue and Earnings Per Share (EPS):

Consensus Estimates: Analysts are forecasting a significant increase in revenue and EPS. The current consensus for Q4 2025 revenue is around $11.1-$11.2 billion, representing a substantial year-over-year increase of approximately 43-45%. The consensus EPS forecast is around $2.81-$2.87, which would be a massive increase from the prior year.

Micron's Guidance: In August, Micron updated its guidance, raising its revenue forecast to $11.2 billion (+/- $100 million) and its non-GAAP EPS to $2.85 (+/- $0.07). A key factor for investors will be whether the company can meet or, more importantly, exceed these elevated expectations.

Summary of Fiscal Q3 2025 Earnings

Micron reported a very strong fiscal third quarter, beating analyst expectations on both the top and bottom lines. The results underscored the robust demand environment for memory and storage, particularly driven by the artificial intelligence (AI) boom.

Revenue and EPS: Micron reported record revenue of $9.3 billion, which was a significant increase of 37% year-over-year and 15% sequentially. The company also delivered non-GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.91, far exceeding the consensus forecast.

Segment Performance: The strong results were primarily driven by record-breaking performance in the DRAM (Dynamic Random-Access Memory) segment, with revenue hitting an all-time high. This was fueled by a nearly 50% sequential increase in High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) revenue. While the NAND flash market has been more challenging, Micron saw a solid sequential increase in its NAND revenue, indicating a stabilizing market.

Operational Highlights: The company's gross margin expanded to 39% (non-GAAP), a testament to better-than-expected pricing and a favorable product mix. Micron also generated over $1.9 billion in free cash flow, the highest in over six years, demonstrating improved financial health.

AI Leadership: Micron's management highlighted its leadership in HBM technology, noting that its HBM3E products are sold out for the entirety of calendar year 2025. The company also announced a new, more advanced DRAM node that uses extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography, further solidifying its technological edge.

Lessons from Fiscal Q4 2025 Guidance

Following the impressive Q3 results, Micron provided guidance for its fiscal fourth quarter that was also well above market expectations, leading to a strong initial market reaction. The key lessons from this guidance and the earnings call are:

The AI-driven upcycle is real and sustainable. Micron's guidance for fiscal Q4, with a projected revenue of $10.7 billion, suggests that the demand for high-performance memory is not a temporary spike but a strong, ongoing trend. The company's commentary on its HBM products being sold out for the calendar year and expectations for HBM bit demand to "significantly exceed" overall DRAM demand in 2026 reinforces the long-term nature of this demand.

Pricing power is back. After a period of oversupply and weak pricing, the tight supply for AI-related memory has given Micron significant pricing power. The company's gross margin forecast for Q4 of 42% (non-GAAP) indicates that they are able to command higher prices for their premium products, which will directly translate to higher profitability.

Inventory is normalizing. A key concern for the memory industry in recent years has been high inventory levels. Micron's Q3 report showed that its inventory levels are improving, with DRAM inventory expected to be below target by the end of the fiscal year. This inventory normalization further supports the bullish outlook for pricing in the coming quarters.

Strategic investments are paying off. Micron's significant investments in U.S. manufacturing and R&D, including new fabs for advanced DRAM and HBM, are positioning the company for long-term growth. The Q3 report confirmed that these investments are on track and will enable the company to maintain its technological leadership and meet future demand from the AI and data center markets.

In summary, Micron's fiscal Q3 2025 earnings report was a clear signal that the memory market has entered a strong and sustained recovery phase, driven by the AI megatrend. The guidance provided underscores the company's commanding position in this market and points to a continued path of revenue and profitability growth.

Analysis of Key Metrics

Investor expectations for Micron's Q4 2025 earnings are high, driven by the surging demand for memory and storage products used in AI and data center applications. Micron has already updated its guidance for the quarter, which has further fueled optimism.

Product Segment Performance (DRAM vs. NAND):

DRAM (Dynamic Random-Access Memory): This is the segment to watch most closely. The strong demand for AI-driven servers has led to improved pricing and a robust market for DRAM chips, especially for High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM). Analysts project DRAM revenue for the quarter to be around $8.69 billion, a 63% increase from the prior year. Any commentary on the ramp-up of its HBM3E products and customer wins will be critical.

NAND (Non-Volatile NAND Flash Memory): While the DRAM market is booming, the NAND market has been weaker due to softer consumer electronics demand. Analysts expect NAND revenue to be around $2.33 billion, a slight decrease year-over-year. Investors will be looking for signs of stabilization or improvement in this segment.

Gross Margin and Forward Guidance:

Gross Margin: Due to improved pricing in the DRAM market, Micron has already raised its non-GAAP gross margin guidance to 44.5% (+/- 0.5%). A beat on this metric would signal strong pricing power and cost controls.

Fiscal Q1 2026 Guidance: The most significant factor for the stock's future performance will be the company's guidance for the upcoming fiscal quarter. Analysts and investors will be looking for a strong outlook that confirms the current AI-driven upcycle is sustainable. A positive outlook for both DRAM and NAND pricing, along with continued HBM demand, could send the stock higher.

Micron (MU) Price Target

Based on 37 analysts from Tiger Brokers offering 12 month price targets for Micron in the last 3 months. The average price target is $155.05 with a high forecast of $200.00 and a low forecast of $86.00. The average price target represents a -4.72% change from the last price of $162.73.

Opportunities for Short-Term Trading

Given the high expectations, Micron's stock is prone to significant volatility post-earnings.

Positive Scenario (Earnings Beat & Strong Guidance): If Micron reports a significant beat on revenue and EPS and, more importantly, provides strong guidance for the next quarter, the stock could see a positive reaction. This is particularly likely if management provides a bullish outlook on HBM and AI demand. A break above key technical levels, such as the all-time high of around $170-$173, could signal a continuation of the rally.

Negative Scenario (Missed Expectations or Weak Guidance): A miss on either the top or bottom line, or any hint of a slowdown in the memory market, could lead to a sharp sell-off. The current stock price, which has risen significantly year-to-date, has a lot of good news already priced in. Any disappointment, especially regarding the forward guidance, could trigger profit-taking.

Volatility Trading: The options market is pricing in a significant move for MU stock post-earnings, with an expected move of around 10% in either direction. This high implied volatility presents opportunities for traders who want to capitalize on the expected price swing, using strategies like long straddles or strangles. Conversely, for traders who believe the stock will not move as much as the market expects, selling options strategies like iron condors or credit spreads could be considered, though this comes with a higher risk profile.

Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) had 120-Day Historical Volatility (Close-to-Close) of 0.4173 for 2025-09-19.

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

There might be a possibility of a pullback based on what we can see from the Monthly EMA chart, as the closing price is far away from the 12-EMA, and also with the extremely high expectations, if there is only modest earnings provided, then we could see a pretty significant pullback.

Based on the daily chart, we are seeing MU creating new highs after a short consolidation, so we could be seeing a slight correction before its earnings, and the high expectations could trigger a pullback from the share price.

Summary

Micron Technology is set to report its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings with extremely high expectations, driven by the strong demand for memory and storage products in the AI sector. Investors will be closely watching for a beat on the company's previously raised guidance for revenue and EPS.

The key metrics to analyze are:

DRAM Performance: With AI-driven server demand, particularly for High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM), the DRAM segment's revenue and profit will be a major focus.

Gross Margin: An expansion in gross margin, a result of better pricing for premium memory products, will signal the strength of the AI-led market.

Forward Guidance: The most crucial element will be the company's outlook for fiscal Q1 2026. A strong forecast would confirm a sustained market upcycle, while any weakness could trigger a sharp sell-off, as a lot of good news is already priced into the stock.

The high expectations make the stock volatile, presenting a binary outcome. A significant beat and strong guidance could lead to further gains, while any disappointment could result in a short-term correction.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think MU could provide a strong earnings and live up to the high expectations to avoid a strong pullback.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.