To The Moon

$Archer-Daniels Midland(ADM)$ $Bunge(BG)$ $Corteva, Inc.(CTVA)$

The American farming sector is under intense strain. Soybean growers, in particular, are facing the most difficult environment in years, as prices fall below production costs and farm bankruptcies climb to their highest level since 2020. What began as a gradual erosion of profitability has accelerated into a financial crisis that is reshaping U.S. agriculture, forcing many family farms out of business and weighing heavily on listed agribusiness giants like Archer-Daniels-Midland, Bunge Global, and Corteva.

The question for investors is straightforward but urgent: how deep will this downturn run, and which companies are most at risk—or perhaps even positioned to benefit—if the shakeout continues?

Soybeans: From Profit Engine to Liability

Soybeans are one of America’s most important crops, with the U.S. historically ranking as one of the world’s largest exporters. In recent years, however, the economics have shifted unfavorably. Prices have collapsed by as much as 40% compared to three years ago, driven by a series of converging forces:

1. Global Oversupply – Brazil, already a dominant producer, has expanded acreage aggressively and harvested record crops, providing cheaper alternatives to U.S. soybeans on the world market.

2. Weaker Chinese Demand – China, the largest soybean importer, has increasingly diversified away from U.S. supply, both to reduce trade dependence and to secure cheaper deals from South America.

3. Input Inflation – Fertilizers, seeds, pesticides, and machinery costs remain elevated. For many U.S. farmers, these input costs now exceed the selling price of soybeans.

4. Financing Burden – High interest rates have magnified the pain. Farmers carrying large amounts of debt are seeing cash flow evaporate as loan repayments eat into already thin margins.

This combination has left farmers in an impossible situation: sell crops at a loss and burn through reserves, or default on obligations and risk bankruptcy. Unfortunately, many are choosing the latter.

Bankruptcy Surge Across the Farm Belt

Chapter 12 bankruptcy filings, which are specifically designed for family farmers, are now at a five-year high. These legal protections allow farmers to restructure debts, but they also reflect the broader collapse in profitability across the agricultural sector.

• Debt Ballooning: U.S. farm debt is projected to exceed $560 billion in 2025.

• Liquidity Crisis: Farm households that once had cash cushions are rapidly depleting reserves.

• Community Impact: Rural economies are being hit hard, as bankruptcies affect not only farm owners but also local suppliers, machinery dealerships, and regional banks.

The long-term consequence could be further consolidation of farmland into the hands of large agribusinesses and institutional investors, accelerating a trend that has been reshaping American agriculture for decades.

Publicly Listed Companies in the Crosshairs

While the headlines focus on struggling farmers, publicly traded agribusiness companies are not immune. Soybeans are central to their supply chains, and weak pricing ripples across seed sales, crop processing, and exports.

Archer-Daniels-Midland (NYSE: ADM)

ADM is one of the world’s largest agricultural processors, with soybean crushing a core part of its business. In its latest financial reports, the Ag Services & Oilseeds unit posted a 56% decline in operating profits, a stark reflection of weaker margins and reduced demand.

Management has responded by announcing plant closures, including a soybean processing facility in Illinois. While ADM has diversified operations in corn, wheat, and specialty ingredients, the soybean downturn is cutting deep into its near-term earnings power.

Investor takeaway: ADM’s stock has already priced in some of this weakness, but prolonged low crush margins could keep pressure on valuations.

Bunge Global (NYSE: BG)

Bunge, another global giant in oilseed processing and commodity trading, is equally exposed. The company’s profits have dropped in step with falling soybean prices, and investor sentiment has soured as oversupply persists.

Bunge’s global footprint helps it balance U.S. weakness with stronger results from Brazil, but that comes with its own irony: the same Brazilian supply glut hurting U.S. farmers is partly fueling Bunge’s success abroad.

Investor takeaway: Bunge may fare slightly better than ADM thanks to its Brazilian positioning, but its U.S. operations remain under stress.

Corteva (NYSE: CTVA)

Corteva is less a processor and more a seed and crop-protection powerhouse. Its Pioneer brand soybean seeds are widely used across the U.S. farm belt. However, when soybean prices fall, farmers often scale back on premium seed purchases, hurting Corteva’s margins.

Corteva is currently exploring a corporate restructuring that could split its seed and pesticide units. Such a move could shield parts of the business from cyclical downturns in soybeans, but in the near term, the company remains exposed.

Investor takeaway: Corteva’s stock could face demand-driven pressure if farmers reduce planting or switch acreage to crops like corn, where economics appear slightly more favorable.

Indirectly Affected Companies

The fallout doesn’t stop with the big three. Other listed firms will feel the knock-on effects:

• Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) – As farm bankruptcies rise, equipment sales may slow sharply. Farmers burdened with debt are unlikely to buy new tractors or combines.

• CF Industries (NYSE: CF) and other fertilizer producers – Lower planting incentives may soften demand for fertilizers.

• Railroads like Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP) – With fewer soybeans moving to export terminals, transport volumes could weaken.

• Food companies – Downstream food producers using soybean oil and meal may benefit from cheaper inputs, though this is a narrow silver lining compared to the broader sector pain.

Policy and Political Wildcards

The U.S. Department of Agriculture is considering emergency economic aid for farmers. However, history shows that while aid packages can provide short-term relief, they rarely change the fundamental economics of global supply and demand.

The politics of farm support may intensify heading into the 2026 election cycle, as rural communities push for greater subsidies or tariff protections. At the same time, global trade partners—particularly China and Brazil—will shape whether U.S. soybean exports can recover.

Investor Verdict

For investors, the soybean crisis creates both risks and opportunities:

1. High Risk in the Near Term – ADM, Bunge, and Corteva are all under pressure. Until soybean prices stabilize, margins will remain volatile.

2. Long-Term Consolidation Play – Larger companies may benefit as weaker farmers exit, allowing processors to secure supply chains at lower cost.

3. Contrarian Opportunity – Depressed valuations could present entry points for patient investors who believe in a cyclical rebound.

4. Watch the Policy Space – Federal aid or new trade agreements could provide catalysts for recovery.

Conclusion

The surge in bankruptcies among American farmers is more than just a rural economic story—it’s a warning signal for investors in listed agribusiness stocks. The collapse in soybean prices is undermining profitability across the supply chain, from seeds to processing to exports.

Archer-Daniels-Midland, Bunge, and Corteva are at the forefront of this downturn, while equipment makers and transport providers feel the secondary effects. Until global supply and demand for soybeans rebalance, the risks remain high.

For now, caution is warranted. Investors considering exposure to this sector should balance the potential for a long-term rebound with the reality of short-term financial pain.