$iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares(NAIL)$ 🏠📈🔥 $NAIL at the Crossroads: Housing Resilience Meets Market Breadth 🔥📈🏠
I’m watching $NAIL closely here. On the 4H chart, price action has broken down from its prior run, pulling back into the lower Keltner and Bollinger bands. That compression suggests volatility is resetting. We’re hovering near the $80 zone, which lines up with prior support and could serve as a possible base for accumulation if buyers step in.
On the weekly view, $NAIL has already retraced off its recent peak but is still holding above the 55 EMA, while volume expansion earlier this year signals strong participation on the way up. This type of pullback into trend support often sets up the next leg higher if the macro housing trade remains intact.
The key levels I’m tracking: $78 on the downside as a risk marker, while a push back above $85 would open room to $92 and higher. If housing momentum stabilizes, this dip could be the entry zone I’ve been waiting for.
Sector-wise, homebuilders have been showing resilience despite higher mortgage rates, supported by tight housing supply and persistent demand. Recent data shows single-family housing starts are holding near cycle highs, and builder sentiment has firmed up as material costs moderate. Mortgage rates remain a headwind, but the long-term structural shortage of homes continues to underpin the trade. If we see any relief on rates into year-end, leveraged plays like $NAIL could respond sharply.
Cross-market confirmation is also key. $IWM has been consolidating after its strong summer run, with yesterday’s wick suggesting unfinished business on the daily. $SPY continues to gap higher on momentum, while $QQQ is leading on tech strength. If small caps ($IWM) start to catch up again, breadth would expand, and housing-linked trades like $NAIL could accelerate in tandem with the broader market.
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- Tui Jude·09-19TOP🏠The housing shortage theme is powerful and you’re right that if mortgage rates ease, $NAIL could really accelerate. I’m seeing the same compression you pointed out on the 4H, and that kind of setup often sparks sharp breakouts. It lines up nicely with what we’ve been watching on $LEN.2Report
- Hen Solo·09-19TOP📈Your point on $NAIL at $78 risk and $85 trigger is spot on, that’s clean risk-reward. I also like how you framed the weekly EMA as a base, because if $IWM breadth expands this fall, the homebuilders could lead. It feels like the same structural bid we saw in $DHI a few quarters back.2Report
- Cool Cat Winston·09-19TOP📊I like how you tied $NAIL’s setup back to $IWM because that breadth link matters. When small caps lag while $SPY and $QQQ gap, housing can be the missing piece, and holding the 55 EMA here looks like a healthy reset. Reminds me of how $XHB pulled back last year before ripping higher.4Report