To The Moon

The Fed’s 25 bp cut on 17 Sep ignited a instant sector rotation: $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ +0.83% ATH $312.91, YTD +29.9% $Citigroup(C)$ +1.11% $102.21, YTD +45.5% $Bank of America(BAC)$ +1.46% $51.63, YTD +16.05% $Goldman Sachs(GS)$ +1.11% 2025-high $798.57, YTD +38.13% $Morgan Stanley(MS)$ +1.03% near $158.48, YTD +26.15% $MasterCard(MA)$ +2.08% $598.63, 1-step from ATH $601.77, YTD +14.59% $KBW Bank Index(BKX)$ +1.27% to new record. More “high-club” candidates under the cut-and-buyback combo: $Wells Fargo(WFC)$ (cheaper deposits, loan rebound), $PNC Financial Services Group Inc(PNC)$ (NII guide +3%), $U.S. Bancorp(USB)$ (AUM >$1 trn), $Truist Financial Corp(TFC)$ (ROTCE >14% target), $Capital One(COF)$ (≥8% 2025 buyback yield), $Charles Schwab(SCHW)$ ($200 bn+/mo inflows). Four engines beyond the rate cut: NIM bottoming—10-yr 4.06%, curve re-steepening. Mega buybacks—JPM $20 bn, BAC $25 bn, C ≥$4 bn. Asset-quality beat—NCOs flat, CRE provision peak past. CET1 >13%, ample ammo for divs/buybacks. What kills the trade? Oct core PCE >3.5% → re-pricing of “re-hike”, -10-15% beta unwind. 10-yr <3.5% or >4.8% breaks steepener; sweet spot 3.8-4.3%. Credit—card delinquency +20 bp/mo or CRE vacancy +200 bp. Strategy take: Valuation 1.2 σ below 10-yr mean, ROE 14-16% (decade high). 2025 cash return 6-10%; history: +12% in first 6 mo post-cut, only day-1 so far. Core: $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ , $Bank of America(BAC)$ (big buybacks, low beta). Cyclical: $Citigroup(C)$ , $Capital One(COF)$ (high cash return, rerating beta). Quality: $MasterCard(MA)$ , $Morgan Stanley(MS)$ (fee-based, asset-light). Bottom line: banks switching from “recession” to “cash-cow + curve repair”; valuation/shareholder-return gap still early—buy dips into Q3 earnings (mid-Oct). 🏦For SG users only, Open a Cash boost Account today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading limit with 0 commission. Trade SG, HK, US stocks as well as ETFs unlimitedly! Find out more here： 💰Join the TB Contra Telegram Group to Get $10 Trading Vouchers Now🎉 Cash Boost Account Supports CPF/SRS Linking, Enjoy 0 Custody Fees and 0 Commission*! 🎉The Cash Boost “Daily Draws” is Now Live – Come Join the Fun! Your first trade of the day = 1 lucky draw chance! 💰CBA Mini Course 1: What is Cash Boost Account(CBA)?