To The Moon

$MARA Holdings(MARA)$ $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ $CME Bitcoin - main 2509(BTCmain)$ I’m treating this setup as a high-clarity inflection point for MARA. The 20-month SMA is acting as firm resistance near ~$19.50 and price is sitting at ~$17.34. This is a classic back-test: resolve higher and the measured move targets mid-to-high $20s, extendable toward $30 on a sustained crypto rally, fail and we retest the $14–$15 structural shelf. COIN is the equity proxy to watch; it confirms risk appetite and flows when it breaks higher above $340. Bitcoin is the macro pulse: September has just printed one of its best months in 13 years, which historically sets up outsized Oct/Nov outcomes.

📈 Technical snapshot and trigger logic

I see MARA compressing inside the Bollinger bands while testing the 20-month SMA; the weekly 55 EMA (~$15.9) provides the immediate support band. Use the monthly close above ~$19.50 as the primary confirmation trigger. If that close occurs, the first target becomes $25 with a stretch case to $30; if price rejects and closes monthly below $15, risk management prefers stepping aside or tightening stops. For COIN, the structural trend remains bullish while price holds above the 55 EMA; breakout confirmation is a weekly close above $340 which historically precedes new institutional activity. For BTC, $123k is the near-term technical trigger; a clean weekly close above that level materially increases the odds of $125k–$130k into November.

💹 Bitcoin’s Structural Resistance

On the weekly Gann square that I’ve tracked for over a year, BTC is pressing directly into a resistance band near $117.7K. This level has capped rallies for months; break it and the roadmap points toward $123K–$130K quickly. The timing is critical, as seasonality and institutional flows are converging with this technical barrier.

🔎 Catalysts and macro flow

The SEC’s approval of Grayscale’s Digital Large Cap Fund (includes BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, ADA) is an institutional on-ramp; that matters because seasonality is currently positive and flow matters most when liquidity products lower the friction for big money. The approval also makes it simpler for investors to gain crypto exposure without directly holding tokens. Whether this reflects a deliberate intent to ease access is debatable; the SEC’s focus is regulation and investor protection, but the effect undeniably aligns with broader crypto integration into traditional finance. Combine this with a green September print for BTC and you have asymmetric odds in favour of further risk-on moves into Q4.

🧠 Probability-weighted plan (how I’d trade it)

• Bull entry: staggered buys between $16.50–$18.50, add on a confirmed monthly close > $19.50.

• Stop: initial protective stop below $14.00; tighten to breakeven once >$20 and trail with the 55 EMA on the weekly.

• Targets: $25 (base), $30 (extension) with reassessment above each target.

• Sizing: keep initial allocation conservative; treat any large add as conditional on BTC confirming new leg > $123k or COIN clearing $340.

• Probability view: on a BTC > $123k weekly close and MARA monthly close > $19.50, I’d assign a ~55–65% chance of reaching $25 within 8–12 weeks; without those confirmations that probability collapses toward the mid-20s percent range.

👉❓ Traders, given MARA’s 20-month SMA test, BTC’s rare green September, and the Gann square resistance at $117.7K, are you scaling into MARA now on a staggered basis, or waiting for the definitive monthly close above ~$19.50 and BTC > $123k before committing size? Share your exact entry, stop, and time horizon.

The edge here lies in the convergence of technical structure, seasonality, Gann geometry, and institutional flow. When multiple independent signals align, the risk-reward skew is not speculative; it’s statistical. The task now isn’t prediction, it’s execution.

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