To The Moon

$MoneyHero(MNY)$ is scheduled to release its fiscal Q2 2025 earnings on Thursday, September 19, 2025, before the market opens.

Earnings Per Share (EPS): The consensus EPS forecast for Q2 2025 is a loss of $-0.02. This is a significant improvement from the reported loss of $-0.3 in the same quarter last year. Any surprise, positive or negative, relative to this forecast will be a major driver of stock price movement.

Revenue: Investors will be looking for a solid revenue number, which is a key indicator of the company's growth in its core markets of Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and the Philippines. The company's ability to grow its top line will be critical to its long-term viability.

Here is an analysis of what investors and traders should be watching and potential short-term trading opportunities.

Summary of Q1 2025 Earnings

MoneyHero Limited's Q1 2025 earnings report, released on June 13, 2025, demonstrated a strategic shift towards profitability and operational efficiency, even as revenue declined. The company's performance was highlighted by:

Significant Improvement in Profitability: The company's Adjusted EBITDA loss improved by 49% year-over-year, narrowing to -$3.3 million. The net loss also saw a substantial improvement, reducing from -$13.1 million in Q1 2024 to -$2.4 million in Q1 2025. This was the result of a significant reduction in operating costs, which fell by 26% year-over-year.

Strategic Revenue Shift: Total revenue declined by 35% year-over-year to $14.3 million. However, management framed this as a strategic decision to prioritize higher-margin products and enhance revenue quality. The company's reliance on lower-margin credit cards decreased, while revenue from higher-margin verticals like insurance and wealth products increased.

High-Margin Verticals: Revenue from insurance and wealth products now accounts for 25% of total revenue, an 11-percentage-point increase year-over-year.

Wealth Products: Revenue from wealth products increased by 20% year-over-year to $1.7 million, making up 12% of total revenue.

Insurance Products: Revenue from insurance grew to 13% of total revenue, up from 8% in the same period last year.

Operational Efficiency and AI Integration: MoneyHero reported major gains in operational efficiency, attributing this to a restructuring effort and the leveraging of AI across the organization. This has helped them maintain a lean cost structure, improve workforce productivity, and enhance user experience while keeping expenses flat.

Lessons Learned from Q1 2025 Guidance

The guidance provided by MoneyHero's management offers several key lessons for investors, particularly those focused on the company's long-term trajectory.

Profitability Over Top-Line Growth: The primary lesson from MoneyHero's Q1 report and guidance is that the company is prioritizing a clear path to profitability over aggressive, unsustainable revenue growth. The revenue decline, while seemingly negative, is a direct result of this strategic focus. This suggests that investors should not be overly concerned with short-term revenue fluctuations and should instead focus on the company's progress toward profitability, as indicated by improving EBITDA and narrowing net losses.

Earnings Trend: MNY is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 15.8% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare MNY's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: MNY is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Interactive Media and Services industry (31.8%).

The "J Curve" of Strategic Investment: Management indicated that a "meaningful rebound in our performance" is expected in the second half of 2025. This points to a classic "J-curve" growth model, where a company intentionally sacrifices short-term growth and profitability to invest in long-term initiatives that will drive future success. The lesson here is to look beyond the immediate quarter and evaluate whether these strategic partnerships and operational improvements are truly laying the groundwork for a more robust and profitable business in the future.

High-Margin Verticals Are the Future: The emphasis on the growing contribution of insurance and wealth products to the revenue mix is a critical lesson. This diversification away from a heavy reliance on a single, lower-margin product (credit cards) is central to the company's long-term strategy. Investors should continue to track the performance of these high-margin segments in future reports, as their growth is the key to achieving sustainable profitability.

AI as a Cost Management Tool: MoneyHero's detailed commentary on using AI to drive efficiency and keep costs flat, even as the company scales, highlights a key competitive advantage. This suggests that the company is not only focused on growing its revenue but also on building a fundamentally more efficient and scalable business model. For investors, this demonstrates a forward-thinking approach to cost management that could lead to improved unit economics and higher margins over time.

Key Metrics to Watch

Based on analyst forecasts and previous company reports, here are the key metrics and areas that will be closely scrutinized by the market:

Profitability and Cost Management: The company has been focusing on improving its profitability. In Q1 2025, MoneyHero reported a 49% year-over-year improvement in its Adjusted EBITDA loss. Investors will be keen to see if this trend continues. Key metrics to watch in this regard are:

Adjusted EBITDA: A continued narrowing of the adjusted EBITDA loss or a move toward profitability would be a very positive sign.

Cost of Revenue: In Q1 2025, the cost of revenue fell by 55% year-over-year. A sustained reduction in costs is a strong indicator of improved operational efficiency.

Operating Margin: A better operating margin would demonstrate the company's progress toward achieving profitability.

User and Partner Metrics: As a personal finance aggregation platform, user engagement and commercial partnerships are fundamental to MoneyHero's business model. Key metrics to watch include:

Monthly Unique Users (MUUs): The company had approximately 5.7 million MUUs in the three months ended March 31, 2025. A significant increase or decrease in this number will provide insight into the platform's traction and user base growth.

Commercial Partner Relationships: MoneyHero reported over 260 commercial partner relationships as of March 31, 2025. The company's ability to attract and retain new partners is essential for expanding its product offerings and revenue streams.

High-Margin Verticals: The company has been emphasizing its high-margin insurance and wealth products. In Q1 2025, these products accounted for 25% of revenue, up from the previous year. Investors will be looking for a continued increase in the revenue mix from these verticals, as it directly impacts profitability.

MoneyHero (MNY) Price Target

Based on 2 analysts from Tiger Brokers offering 12 month price targets for MoneyHero Limited in the last 3 months. The average price target is $4.60 with a high forecast of $5.20 and a low forecast of $4.00. The average price target represents a 135.90% change from the last price of $1.95.

Short-Term Trading Opportunities Post-Earnings

The period immediately following an earnings release is often characterized by high volatility, which can create opportunities for short-term traders. Here are some potential strategies, keeping in mind that these involve significant risk:

Trading the Surprise:

Bullish Scenario: If MoneyHero reports a smaller-than-expected loss (or, in a highly bullish case, a profit) and strong revenue growth, the stock could experience a significant rally. This could be a good opportunity for a long position. The focus would be on a positive surprise in EPS, revenue, or guidance.

Bearish Scenario: Conversely, if the company misses on key metrics, particularly if the loss is wider than expected or user growth stagnates, the stock could sell off sharply. This could present an opportunity for a short position.

Volatility Trading:

Straddle/Strangle: For traders who believe a significant price move is imminent but are unsure of the direction, an options strategy like a straddle (buying a call and a put at the same strike price) or a strangle (buying an out-of-the-money call and an out-of-the-money put) could be considered. This strategy profits from a large price swing in either direction, but it is important to be aware of the risk of "volatility crush," where the value of the options decreases rapidly after the earnings announcement.

Technical Analysis: Post-earnings, traders can use technical analysis to identify new trends. Look at key support and resistance levels. A strong beat on earnings could lead to a breakout above a resistance level, while a miss could cause the stock to fall below a key support level. Monitoring moving averages and other technical indicators will be crucial to identify the post-earnings direction.

We can see that MNY continue to see positive momentum and there have been volatility in its share price trading and we are seeing that it has managed to hold up above the 12-EMA, and this could have the bulls trying to continue making an uptrend, and also a possible uptrend continuation.

So it is important that we watch the upcoming earnings to see if there is a significant improvement in its EBITDA, a narrower loss would have investors sentiment coming back, and a profitable earnings could stage a small rally post earnings.

Summary

MoneyHero Limited (MNY) is set to release its Q2 2025 earnings on September 19, 2025. The company's previous reports have shown a strategic pivot towards profitability, with Q1 2025 earnings demonstrating improved margins and a narrower net loss, despite a drop in total revenue.

For Q2, investors should closely watch key metrics like Earnings Per Share (EPS), where a consensus forecast is a loss of $-0.02, a significant improvement from the previous year. Revenue figures will be analyzed for growth, particularly from higher-margin verticals like insurance and wealth products. The company's ability to maintain a lean cost structure and continue narrowing its Adjusted EBITDA loss will also be a key focus.

Post-earnings, the stock's high volatility could create short-term trading opportunities. A positive surprise in EPS or strong guidance for the second half of 2025 could lead to a rally, while a miss on metrics could trigger a sharp sell-off. Traders may consider strategies based on these potential price swings.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think MNY would be able to improve its EBITDA and a profitable quarter could give us a small rally post earnings.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.