🚨📉📊 $SPX Fed Pivot: Rate Cut Triggers Market Rotation 📊📉🚨
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ I’m fully convinced this FOMC print is a defining pivot in the 2025 macro playbook. The Fed cut rates by 25 bps to 4.00%–4.25%, as expected, with Stephen L. Miran dissenting for a deeper 50 bps cut. This isn’t just a technical adjustment; it signals the beginning of a new policy glide path.
📌 Dot Plot & Projections
The Bloomberg dot plot overlay confirms the dovish shift:
2025: 3.625% vs June’s 3.875%
2026: 3.375% vs 3.625%
2027: 3.125% (unchanged)
2028: 3.125% (new)
Longer-run: 3.00% (anchored)
The visual shows the dots converging lower, aligning with Fed funds futures pricing, and confirming easing momentum into 2026.
📰 Statement Shifts
The Fed statement visuals highlight softer language: jobs “have slowed,” downside risks to employment “have risen.”
Risks to both sides of the mandate are acknowledged, tilting dovish.
Miran dissent is visible on the voting graphic; it underscores that internal bias is skewed toward more accommodation.
📊 SPX / SPY Market Mechanics
The SPX gamma exposure (GEX) and delta exposure (DEX) interval charts show sharp collapses in downside hedging walls. Net Vanna exposure visuals confirm less put intensity, freeing directional upside.
SPY hit the $657.74 dark pool level immediately post-Fed. The intraday chart shows high $662.65, low $657.13, and balancing at $657.85.
SPX Keltner and Bollinger band overlays demonstrate compression unwinding with volatility expansion potential.
📉 Yields & Dollar
The TradingView chart on US 2Y yields shows a decisive dump to 3.476%, the lowest in three years. The 10Y visual confirms yields breaking under 4% and nearing last week’s trough.
The Bloomberg dollar index chart (DXY) highlights a break to 96.40, the lowest since Feb 2022, down –11.18% YTD. These aren’t just moves; they’re confirmation of a broad regime shift in global capital flow.
🥇 Gold & Commodities
The $GLD candlestick chart shows a clean breakout to $340.09 with RSI above 75. Momentum is confirmed on the technical overlay. Commodities positioning visuals indicate a building case for a supercycle if DXY weakness persists.
📈 Equity Rotation
The US Equity Factors heat map clearly shows small-cap value as the epicenter of the bullish response: +2.1% (mid-cap +1.6%), while large-cap growth underperformed –0.7%.
$IWM surged +2.23% confirming appetite for high-beta small caps.
Speculative AI/robotics names highlighted on your scatter visual ripped higher: $RR +5.20%, $LAES +4.94%, $BBAI +1.60%, $ONDS +0.45%.
The equity performance panel confirms $SOFI bucked the trend at –1.29%.
📊 Historical Context
The long-term Fed funds rate history chart shows this cut marks the beginning of the descent from the fastest hiking cycle since the 1980s. Each easing cycle in history catalyzed powerful factor rotations; today’s tape and chart sequence show the early signs repeating.
💡 Strategic Outlook
The Fed’s pivot is no longer speculative; it’s codified in the dots and confirmed in the statement. The market is now recalibrating around a glide path that accelerates the repricing of real yields, the dollar, and equity leadership. What we are witnessing is not a relief rally but the front edge of a structural allocation shift: capital rotating out of megacap growth monopolies and into small-cap value, cyclicals, and hard assets. The collapse in SPX put walls, gamma hedging layers, and dark pool tests at $657.74 are the microstructure tells of this bigger regime change.
👉❓With the Fed pivot now locked in, SPY testing dark pool levels, yields collapsing, and gold breaking out, are we staring at the opening act of a full-blown capital rotation into small-caps and commodities, or will megacap tech fight back to reclaim dominance?
👉❓With the Fed cutting 25 bps and the dots now at 3.625% for 2025; Miran pushing for 50; $SPY tagging the $657.74 dark pool level with GEX and DEX hedges unwinding; $DXY sliding to 96.40; 2Y at 3.476% and 10Y under 4; $GLD near 340 with RSI above 75; and $IWM up 2.23% leading small caps, do we front-load positioning into a small-cap value and hard-asset regime through 2026, or fade this move for megacap reversion?
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- Hen Solo·09-18TOP📈That long-term Fed funds chart is a reminder of how rare these pivots are, the dots at 3.625% in 2025 say this isn’t just a quick cut but a full policy shift, I’m connecting that with $SOFI underperformance and it feels like growth’s not where the allocation flows are heading.2Report
- Tui Jude·09-18TOP💵The dollar hitting 96.40 while 2Y dumps to 3.476% really reinforces your point, it’s the classic setup where $GLD strength isn’t just noise but a proper macro hedge move, I can see how commodities and small-cap value could actually lead for multiple quarters here.3Report
- Queengirlypops·09-18TOPthis article’s a killer, you nailed the Fed cut, SPY at 657.74, DXY slide, GLD breakout. ngl the IWM pullback looks like pure resistance rejection not trend change, calls still dwarf puts, dollar nuked to 96 and 2Y hit 3.47 so the setup’s still alive, feels like small caps and GLD are just resetting before the next move 📈🧃5Report
- Tui Jude·09-18TOP//@Queengirlypops:this article’s a killer, you nailed the Fed cut, SPY at 657.74, DXY slide, GLD breakout. ngl the IWM pullback looks like pure resistance rejection not trend change, calls still dwarf puts, dollar nuked to 96 and 2Y hit 3.47 so the setup’s still alive, feels like small caps and GLD are just resetting before the next move 📈🧃1Report
- 1PC·09-20TOPNice Sharing 😊 @JC888 @DiAngel @Shyon @koolgal @Aqa @Shernice軒嬣 20001Report
- Cool Cat Winston·09-18📊I’m looking at that SPY dark pool tag at 657.74 and it lines up with the way hedging flows collapsed in your charts, the gamma and delta unwind explains why $IWM ripped 2.23% while large growth sank, that’s the kind of rotation signal I’ve been waiting on.4Report