To The Moon

Markets are cheering a likely 25 bps Fed cut this week and Trump's 'VERY WELL' trade update with China—but this rally might be running on borrowed time.

Yes, easing trade tensions + rate cuts = textbook fuel for an equities breakout. But let's zoom out:

1. Fed Cuts = Weak Growth Signal

Historically, rate cuts outside of a recession often precede one. A 25 bps trim may relieve pressure now, but it also signals that the Fed sees a slowdown coming. If earnings don't re-accelerate, valuations will stretch unsustainably.

2. Trade War Over? Or Just Paused?

Markets love 'resolution headlines', but there's no formal deal yet. One rogue tweet or tariff retaliation can reverse sentiment overnight.

3. Where's the Real Rotation?

We're not seeing strong inflows into small caps or cyclicals. The breadth of this rally is still narrow—tech-heavy, algo-driven, and possibly fragile.

2025 Outlook?

More cuts are likely. Goldman's call for another by year-end sets the tone. But in 2025, if inflation rears back up or if fiscal policy turns tighter, expect rate volatility to return.

What I'm Watching

💡 Defensive growth plays with pricing power

💡 Rate-sensitive sectors (REITs, homebuilders) for quick upside

💡 Gold & BTC as anti-volatility hedges

Don't just chase the rally. Be selective. The real winners will emerge once the sugar rush fades.

I'm not a financial advisor. Trade wisely, Comrades!