To The Moon

The yellow metal refuses to cool off, smashing through fresh all-time highs above $3,700 per ounce as markets brace for the Fed's pivotal move. This isn't random noise—it's a calculated frenzy fueled by whispers of deeper rate slashes, with futures now baking in a 25-basis-point trim and more to follow. Weaker-than-expected jobs data cracked open the door to easing, sending the dollar into a tailspin and Treasury yields tumbling, making non-yielding gold the ultimate magnet for sidelined cash. Add in Trump's tariff blitz shaking global supply chains, and you've got a cocktail that's got institutions piling in like never before.

Central banks aren't sitting idle either—they're hoarding at a clip of over 900 tonnes projected for the year, led by heavy hitters like China and India diversifying away from dollar dominance amid U.S.-China saber-rattling. ETF inflows exploded to 74.56 tonnes last month alone, with Western funds chasing the safe-haven glow as recession shadows lengthen. Over in Asia, retail frenzy is real: Indian wedding season and Chinese stimulus bets are sucking up physical bars, while elevated inflation—now flirting with 2.9% U.S. CPI—keeps the debasement fears alive. Geopolitics? It's the secret sauce. Escalating Middle East flare-ups, European debt wobbles, and policy chaos from the White House are all cranking the uncertainty dial, turning gold into the go-to shield for jittery portfolios.

Performance-wise, this isn't a flash in the pan. Back-to-back monster years: 27% pop in 2024, another 27% through mid-2025, outpacing stocks and bonds in a world that's anything but stable. Major players are scrambling to catch up—Goldman Sachs jacked their year-end call to $3,700, eyeing $3,880 in a downturn; J.P. Morgan sees $3,675 by Q4, ramping to $4,000 mid-next year; UBS bumped to $3,200 peak, while Citi holds at $3,300 short-term but admits upside from chaos. Even bears like Long Forecast whisper $3,896 by September's end. The math? With yields dropping and volatility spiking, gold's inverse dance with the buck could add another 10-15% if Fed Chair Powell goes dovish tomorrow.

Breaking down the firepower behind this surge:

Bottom line: With debt piles swelling, alliances fracturing, and Powell's words hanging like a sword, this momentum feels primed to accelerate. Gold's not just surviving—it's thriving in the storm.

1. Is $3,700 far from the near-term peak?

2. After two consecutive years of gains, is gold less likely to fall?

3. Could the future environment become more uncertain—and even more bullish for gold?

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