To The Moon

Tit-for-Tat in Tech: China Probes U.S. Analog Chipmakers After New Sanctions

What Happened?

In a swift retaliatory move, China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) has launched an anti-dumping investigation into specific analog semiconductor imports from the United States. This action follows the latest decision by the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) to add another 32 Chinese entities to its export control list. According to the Jiangsu Semiconductor Industry Association, the probe directly targets several publicly traded U.S. giants, including $Texas Instruments(TXN)$   , $Analog Devices(ADI)$   , $Broadcom(AVGO)$  , and $ON Semiconductor(ON)$   .

What Are Analog Chips?

In simple terms, analog chips function as the "nervous system" for electronic devices. They are essential for translating continuous, real-world signals—such as sound, temperature, and light—into the digital language that electronics can understand and process.

What to Watch?

As policy-driven friction in the U.S.-China semiconductor space continues, investors should pay close attention to U.S. analog chip companies with significant revenue exposure to China. Key names include:

~$Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR.US)$ : Focuses on power management analog ICs (DC/DC, PMICs, power modules, motor drivers). FY2024 revenue is projected at approximately $2.21 billion, up ~24% YoY. Its revenue is nearly 100% from analog/mixed-signal products.

~$Analog Devices (ADI.US)$ : A leader in high-performance analog/mixed-signal (data converters, amplifiers, RF/microwave, power management). FY2024 revenue is forecasted at roughly $9.43 billion, a ~24% YoY decline. Its business is almost entirely concentrated in analog/mixed-signal.

~$Texas Instruments (TXN.US)$ : Core business is Analog (power management, signal chain) with a smaller Embedded Processing segment. FY2024 revenue is expected to be around $14.7 billion, down ~12% YoY. Its analog segment alone is projected at $12.16 billion, accounting for ~83% of total revenue.

~$Microchip Technology (MCHP.US)$ : Product portfolio includes power management, interface, and timing (though its primary businesses include MCUs/FPGAs). FY2025 revenue is projected at ~$7 billion, with a YoY decline attributed to industry-wide inventory destocking. Its analog product line constitutes about 26.3% of revenue.

~$Broadcom (AVGO.US)$ : Analog exposure is concentrated in RF front-end (FBAR/PA/switches) and optical components (while the company also has massive networking, ASIC, and software divisions). FY2024 revenue is forecasted at $50.6 billion, a significant YoY increase driven by the VMware acquisition and AI networking demand.

~$ON Semiconductor (ON.US)$ : Specializes in power and analog semiconductors (SiC/Si MOSFETs, IGBTs, power modules, PMICs, sensing). FY2024 revenue is projected at ~$8.3 billion, a slight YoY decrease. The Power Solutions Group (PSG) is its largest division.

~$Skyworks Solutions (SWKS.US)$ : Primarily focused on RF front-end analog (PAs, filters, switches). FY2024 revenue is estimated at $4.77 billion, a YoY decline. Its revenue is almost entirely from RF/analog components.

~$Qorvo (QRVO.US)$ : Concentrates on RF analog (SAW/BAW filters, PAs) and is expanding into SiC power devices. FY2025 revenue is projected to be in the $3.6–$3.7 billion range, facing YoY pressure. Its revenue is predominantly from RF/analog products.

Summary

The latest volley in the U.S.-China tech rivalry marks a significant expansion of the battlefield. While previous skirmishes centered on advanced digital and AI chips, China's anti-dumping probe targets the foundational, high-volume analog sector—a less-discussed but equally critical artery of the global tech supply chain. This strategic pivot creates a new layer of uncertainty for U.S. semiconductor giants that rely heavily on the Chinese market for a substantial portion of their revenue. For investors, this means the calculus of risk has changed; they must now scrutinize not only geopolitical headlines but also the specific China revenue exposure within their portfolios, as this investigation could signal further retaliatory measures and potential earnings disruption.

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