To The Moon

🔥 Alibaba Doubled Since Jack Ma’s Return — Still a Buy Above $150?

Alibaba ($Alibaba(BABA)$  ) has staged one of the most stunning comebacks in China tech. Since Jack Ma resurfaced in 2023, the stock has doubled, shaking off years of regulatory scars and regaining investor trust. The momentum is now driven not just by e-commerce, but by AI, cloud, and food delivery — three pillars of China’s digital economy.

But the latest twist could prove even bigger: reports suggest Alibaba and Baidu are training AI models on self-developed chips. If this proves true, it would mark a bold move to reduce reliance on Nvidia and reshape the balance of power in China’s AI ecosystem.

So the million-dollar investor question: is every dip still a buy — or has the easy money already been made?

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📈 The Comeback Story Investors Love

Alibaba’s rebound is not just about price action; it’s about a restored narrative.

The Jack Ma effect. His reappearance was a symbolic “all-clear” for both retail investors and institutions who had feared Beijing’s chill toward tech giants.

Cloud + AI. Alibaba Cloud, still China’s leader, is increasingly seen as a domestic alternative for AI workloads.

E-commerce revival. Taobao and Tmall are stabilizing, with “Taobao Flash Sales” tapping into value-seeking consumers — a key edge in a cautious consumption environment.

Services expansion. Ele.me’s push in food delivery positions Alibaba to challenge Meituan in local services, diversifying its revenue base.

This is why many see Alibaba’s rebound as more structural than speculative.

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⚡ The AI Chip Gambit

The buzz around Alibaba and Baidu designing their own AI chips adds a new layer of intrigue.

1. Strategic independence. Relying less on Nvidia could shield them from U.S. export restrictions — a geopolitical hedge.

2. Vertical integration. Owning both chips and platforms allows tighter ecosystem control, similar to Apple’s model in smartphones.

3. Cost dynamics. If successful, in-house chips could reduce long-term dependence on Nvidia’s costly GPUs.

Yet the challenge is monumental. Nvidia’s moat isn’t just silicon — it’s CUDA, its developer ecosystem, and its first-mover advantage. Think of it as not just building a race car, but also creating the highways, pit crews, and fuel stations. Catching up won’t be easy.

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🚀 The Bull Case

Bulls argue Alibaba’s rebound is just beginning:

Valuation appeal. Even after doubling, BABA trades at a discount to U.S. tech peers, making it attractive for value-hungry investors.

Consumption recovery. Policy stimulus is trickling through, supporting platforms that capture consumer spending.

AI optionality. A credible chip strategy could transform Alibaba from a “China e-commerce story” into a global AI contender.

Relative play. With many global investors overweight on the Magnificent 7, Alibaba offers a way to diversify into AI at lower multiples.

For long-term holders, this is a compelling mix.

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⚠️ The Bear Case

Skeptics warn the rally may be running hot:

Regulatory shadows. Beijing’s stance may be warmer, but policy risk in China never fully disappears.

Margin pressure. Both AI chips and food delivery are heavy investments with uncertain returns.

Competitive intensity. Tencent’s AI app dominance and Baidu’s search integration mean Alibaba doesn’t have a free run.

Momentum fatigue. A stock that doubles in under a year often pauses for breath — sideways trading or a sharp pullback wouldn’t be unusual.

From this angle, $150+ could represent near-term resistance.

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🏆 Beyond Alibaba — China’s AI Ambition

This isn’t just Alibaba’s story; it’s China’s tech story.

The drive to build domestic AI infrastructure is part of a larger push to reduce dependence on U.S. suppliers.

If successful, it could spark a new wave of winners across China’s tech ecosystem — from chip designers like Cambricon to manufacturers like SMIC.

If not, China may still lag Nvidia and the U.S. ecosystem, leaving its “AI sovereignty” dream half-fulfilled.

For investors, this means Alibaba’s chip narrative is also a proxy for China’s strategic tech trajectory.

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💡 Takeaway

Alibaba’s comeback is underpinned by leadership renewal, multiple growth drivers, and bold AI bets. But the path ahead is anything but smooth. Bulls see a long runway for valuation catch-up and AI upside. Bears see risks of margin compression, policy surprises, and hype running ahead of fundamentals.

Perhaps the better framing is this: short-term traders may want to watch for pullbacks or resistance zones around $150–160, while long-term believers may see this as the second act of Alibaba’s growth story — one that could eventually rival the global tech giants.

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🔎 Community Questions

1. Can Alibaba and Baidu’s chip ambitions really chip away at Nvidia’s dominance, or is it symbolic more than practical?

2. At $150+, is BABA still undervalued compared to U.S. tech — or already priced for perfection?

3. Do you see Alibaba’s rebound as the start of a China tech revival, or just a single-stock story?

4. If you had to crown a China AI champion between Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu, who gets your pick — and why?

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