To The Moon

Oracle’s Q1 earnings release sent its stock soaring by 35%, cementing its status as a new favorite among AI-themed stocks. This surge overshadowed even Broadcom’s 9.4% post-earnings gain, not to mention NVIDIA’s recent sideways trading and AMD’s continued decline.

So, what’s changing in the AI market, and which of these four companies—NVIDIA, Broadcom, Oracle, and AMD—is the most promising investment? This article briefly outlines their business strategies and shares insights on options strategies (not investment advice, for educational purposes only).

Giants Compete, Oracle Profits

AI cloud infrastructure refers to a cloud-based support system providing AI computing power. Its core components include large-scale, high-performance GPU/ASIC computing clusters (e.g., NVIDIA’s H100 clusters), high-speed, low-latency networking, massive distributed storage systems, and supporting AI frameworks (e.g., TensorFlow), model libraries, and MaaS (Model-as-a-Service) platforms. It offers users elastic, on-demand AI training and inference capabilities through a cloud-native approach.

Oracle’s earnings report highlights the current severe scarcity of AI computing power. Cutting-edge model training consumes enormous computational resources, while the supply of high-performance chips (e.g., GPUs) is concentrated and limited. Global tech giants are fiercely competing for these resources, driving up costs and creating a shortage of available hardware. This scarcity has become a critical bottleneck for AI development and adoption, with no near-term relief in sight.

Driven by explosive growth in its cloud infrastructure business and robust AI computing demand, Oracle’s stock price has surged. Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) increased by 359% quarter-over-quarter to $455 billion, a record high. The company signed a five-year, $300 billion computing power agreement with OpenAI and expects fiscal 2026 cloud revenue to grow by 77% to $18 billion. These figures far exceeded market expectations, propelling the stock to a 36% single-day gain.

NVIDIA vs. Broadcom: GPU vs. ASIC Competition

In some respects, Broadcom’s custom ASICs (Application-Specific Integrated Circuits) are eroding NVIDIA’s GPU market share in specific areas, though they are unlikely to challenge NVIDIA’s overall dominance in the short term.

Broadcom’s ASICs primarily target hyperscale cloud providers like Google and Microsoft, offering极致 performance and energy efficiency for specific AI workloads (e.g., search and recommendation algorithms). In these closed, self-contained environments, custom ASICs provide a cost advantage over general-purpose GPUs, inevitably diverting some orders that would otherwise go to NVIDIA.

However, NVIDIA’s moat remains deep: its core strength lies in the CUDA ecosystem. The global developer community, software toolchains, and models are built around it, creating high switching barriers. GPUs’ versatility makes them suitable for a wide range of scenarios, including model training, inference, and graphics processing, whereas ASICs lack this flexibility.

Thus, analysts generally believe Broadcom’s custom ASICs and NVIDIA’s GPUs will form a complementary, differentiated landscape. Broadcom is rapidly rising by designing AI chips for major clients like Google and Meta (e.g., its OpenAI collaboration), with its CEO projecting AI revenue could reach $120 billion by 2030. Meanwhile, NVIDIA continues to dominate the general-purpose GPU market, with its newly launched Rubin CPX GPU enhancing inference performance and receiving widespread endorsement from institutions (93% of 59 analysts recommend buying). While both companies occupy specialized and general-purpose computing segments, increasing competition may squeeze some of NVIDIA’s market share.

Recent Options Strategy Layout (Not Investment Advice)

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$

NVIDIA has been trading sideways recently, likely due to high valuation pressures and market speculation about industry dynamics. The primary catalyst comes from Oracle, which is now seen as the "new NVIDIA" due to its cloud infrastructure capital expenditure surging by 65%, diverting market funds. Additionally, while the new Rubin CPX chip promises breakthroughs in inference performance, the market is focused on the technical validation period before its 2026 launch.

Current valuations are at historical highs, but analysts remain optimistic about long-term growth potential. The median Wall Street price target is $211.73, implying a 19% upside from the current price.

Institutions like Citi emphasize that the new Rubin CPX GPU could deliver a 50x return on investment, solidifying its advantage in the inference market, while Morgan Stanley believes increased production of Blackwell chips will drive the next growth phase. Despite short-term valuation concerns, a 94% GPU market share and 109% ROE support the bullish thesis.

NVDA’s options open interest structure indicates short-term pressure but long-term optimism, though a pullback may be needed to release valuation risks.

• Call open interest piles up at $170-$190:

  • Significant short-term resistance: A direct breakout above $190 by year-end is highly challenging. Call sellers (mostly institutions) are actively selling calls, limiting upside.

  • Ideal strike region for selling bull call spreads.

• Put open interest clusters at $140-$160:

  • Expected support zone: Traders widely believe any pullback could stabilize around $140-$160. Put sellers are absorbing selling pressure, betting the stock won’t fall below this range.

  • This is the target pullback zone for considering long strategies.

Given this, an iron condor strategy can harvest time value during sideways movement by selling out-of-the-money calls (e.g., $190) and puts (e.g., $150), profiting if the stock oscillates between $150 and $190.

For those holding NVIDIA shares, a covered call strategy can protect positions by selling calls against shares. Strike prices can be selected by referring to the premium section for high-yield options.

$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$

Since mid-August, AMD has been in a gradual decline, falling from a high of $186.65 to the current $156. Even so, its valuation remains slightly above historical averages.

Wall Street analysts are divided on AMD: Truist upgraded it to "buy" due to strong data center CPU and AI chip demand, with a highest target of $230. HSBC lowered its target to $185, while Citi maintains a "neutral" rating (target $180). The average target among 41 institutions is $184.58. Some note AMD is gaining customers from NVIDIA in AI, but others warn of slowing AI growth.

The situation is more complex and nuanced than NVIDIA’s. The stock is declining but not cheap, and institutional views are highly divided, reflected in the options chain. This suggests a directional move in the next 1-2 months, with volatility likely increasing.

• Call open interest clusters at $150-$180, with different focuses for October and November:

  • $150-$165: Near-term out-of-the-money calls indicate bulls expect a rebound to current levels or higher by October expiration. $150 is a key psychological and options support level.

  • $170-$180: November calls are more dispersed at higher strikes, suggesting larger gains would require more time (until November), targeting $180 (near many institutions’ "neutral" target).

• Put open interest highly concentrated at $130-$150:

  • This is a critical signal. Massive, structured put open interest at $130 and $135 suggests the options market views $150 as the first key support. If broken, the next major support is $130-$140. Put sellers are betting the stock won’t fall below this zone.

AMD presents a classic "high divergence" trading environment. Key support is at $150; a break below could test $130-$140. Any positive catalyst (e.g., better-than-expected AI orders or earnings) could trigger a rebound toward $180.

For AMD shareholders, a covered call strategy can protect positions by selling calls against shares. Strike prices can be selected by referring to the premium section for high-yield options.

$Broadcom(AVGO)$

After a 9.4% post-earnings jump, Broadcom has been hovering at high levels. Valuations are at historical highs, but Wall Street analysts are optimistic about its AI growth potential. The average price target is $350.64, with a high of $415.56. CICC recently raised its target to $375 (39x P/E for 2026).

This high valuation is supported by Broadcom’s leadership in ASICs and high-speed networking. Partnerships with giants like OpenAI are driving custom chip demand, with AI revenue targeted to reach up to $120 billion by 2026. The CEO expects AI revenue to exceed non-AI revenue within two years.

Options data shows medium-term optimism but suggests caution for short-term volatility.

• Call open interest shows optimistic targets:

  • Short-term (October): Open interest clusters at $240-$300. The current price is far above these strikes, indicating these are deep in-the-money calls, likely held by low-cost longs or as part of protective strategies. This suggests the market views $300 as a near "risk-free" zone.

  • Medium-term (November): Open interest clusters at $350-$450. These out-of-the-money calls represent real optimistic expectations for the next 2-3 months, targeting $350 (near the average target) and $450 (challenging the highest target).

• Put open interest reveals potential support:

  • Short & medium-term: Put open interest is strikingly concentrated at $240-$270, especially $250. This indicates the market sees $250 as strong support if a pullback occurs. Many investors are willing to sell puts here (collecting premiums), betting the stock won’t fall below this level or prepared to buy at this price.

The options chain reveals a layered expectation: short-term caution but medium-to-long-term extreme optimism. The core trading strategy is to manage short-term volatility risks without missing the long-term trend.

Short-term, investors can use covered calls to protect shares. Medium-term, consider selling puts for bullish positions. Strike prices can be selected by referring to the premium section for high-yield options.

$Oracle(ORCL)$

Post-earnings, Oracle’s stock surged 35.95%, with valuations at historical highs. Wall Street analysts are divided: among 42 covering analysts, 10 strongly recommend, 21 recommend buy, 11 are neutral. Price targets range from $188 to $400, averaging $307.53.

Bulls (e.g., Jefferies, Citizens JMP) believe its $455 billion order backlog and $300 billion OpenAI deal will double revenue in three years, raising targets to $335-$400. Bears (e.g., Morgan Stanley) note risks from declining margins and over-reliance on major customers.

The stock is consolidating, and options open interest unusually points to a narrow range, a strong signal.

• Call and put open interest remarkably overlap at $310-$320:

  • Both calls and puts show peak open interest in this tight range, indicating huge divergence and direct confrontation between bulls and bears on short-term price movement.

  • Bulls are heavily positioned at $310-$320, betting the stock will hold and break higher. Bears are heavily deployed with puts at the same level, betting the stock will fail to break out and pull back.

• Short-term (September 12): Massive open interest at $310-$320 suggests the stock will be "anchored" here for intense battles in the coming weeks. Any breakout could trigger significant Gamma effects, accelerating the move.

• Medium-term (October 3): Open interest drops significantly and is dispersed (e.g., $350), indicating the market believes a unilateral trend will take more time (over a month) to challenge higher or lower targets.

In this high-volatility, high-divergence scenario, strategies can be built around the $310-$320 core range. Consider selling iron condors or strangles—e.g., selling $300 puts and $335 calls.

Short-term, investors can use covered calls to protect shares. Strike prices can be selected by referring to the premium section for high-yield options.