To The Moon

$GRANITESHARES 2X LONG BABA DAILY ETF(BABX)$ $Alibaba(BABA)$ 🐲🐉📈🅱️ U͛ L͛ L͛ I͛ S͛ H͛🔺

📈 Why I’m Convicted

I’m fully convinced GraniteShares 2x Long BABA Daily ETF ($BABX) is in the middle of a structural breakout. I’ve watched this trade accelerate for two sessions straight, fueled by a surge in liquidity and volume that signals institutions are stepping in, not just retail momentum. Price has already exploded +15% into $43.52, and I believe this isn’t the end of the move.

🔑 Technical Roadmap

I’m tracking the $45.28 resistance as the key pivot. If we clear that level on strong turnover, the path opens toward $49.29, which aligns with the next liquidity pocket. My support zones are anchored at $38.93 and deeper at $31.81, which served as the breakout base. I’m not trading noise here; I’m managing probability-weighted levels where demand has been proven.

📊 Flow Dynamics

I’m watching the options tape closely: 429 contracts traded with a heavy call skew of 363 vs 66 puts. That’s confirmation of directional conviction. The 627K shares shorted represent potential acceleration fuel if momentum forces a cover cycle. AUM cooled slightly to $154.2M from $170.5M, yet daily turnover of $65M shows buyers remain in control. I’m reading this as leveraged positioning, not a tired move.

🗞️ 🇨🇳 China AI Chip Shift

On 11Sep25, Reuters reported that Alibaba and Baidu have started using internally designed chips to train their AI models, partly replacing Nvidia hardware. Alibaba has been deploying its own chips for smaller models since early this year, while Baidu is testing its Kunlun P800 chip on new versions of its Ernie AI model.

This marks a pivotal move in China’s tech and AI landscape, where reliance on Nvidia’s GPUs has been the norm. Growing U.S. export restrictions on advanced AI chips have accelerated Beijing’s push for home-grown solutions, pressuring companies to scale their domestic arsenal.

Despite the shift, both Alibaba and Baidu continue to rely on Nvidia for their most advanced models. The balance highlights both the necessity of Nvidia’s cutting-edge performance and the rising ambition of Chinese firms to secure independence in critical AI infrastructure.

📈 Alibaba stock jumped +7.3% in morning trade, while Baidu gained +4% following the news.

🤔 Do you think this shift signals the start of China’s real independence in AI hardware, or will Nvidia’s cutting-edge GPUs remain irreplaceable for the foreseeable future?

⚡ Momentum Structure

On the 5-minute and 4-hour views, BABX is hugging the upper Keltner and Bollinger bands with near-perfect alignment across EMA 13/21/55. ATR multiples are extended, yet RSI hasn’t rolled over into divergence. That’s critical: it tells me momentum is stretched but not exhausted. This is what institutional trend capture looks like.

🧩 Macro Catalyst

The story isn’t just BABX, it’s Alibaba. I believe sentiment is turning in Chinese tech as US-China trade rhetoric softens and regulatory pressure eases. BABA strength is the engine, and BABX is the amplifier. This is where macro positioning collides with leveraged instruments, and that’s why I’m staying long-biased until structural resistance proves otherwise.

🎯 Conclusion

I’m not chasing noise; I’m positioning into structure. BABX has already proven it can explode when Alibaba sentiment shifts, and the flows confirm this isn’t retail froth, it’s institutional recalibration. The $45.28 level isn’t just resistance: it’s the threshold to another leg higher that could redefine this ETF’s trajectory.

I believe the setup is asymmetric: upside into $49+ carries far more probability than downside beyond $38, given the velocity of volume and alignment of catalysts. My conviction is that BABX isn’t done; it’s in the middle innings of a larger move, and I’m trading it with that foresight.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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