To The Moon

I'm excited but nervous about today's CPI release. It's key for global markets. Expectations are for headline CPI at 2.9% year-over-year and core at 3.1%. Yesterday's weak PPI data (down 0.1%) makes me think it could come in cooler. Traders see over 90% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed cut next week, and maybe even 50 bps if it's soft.

On whether the market pullback has ended: Yes, I think so. The S&P 500 is near highs, up about 11% year-to-date, and Bitcoin hit $114K on cut hopes. Jobs cooled to 4.3% unemployment without breaking, so it feels like the worst is over. Tariffs add risk, but with two or more cuts likely (85% odds), we're rebounding on easy money.

Will the Fed's cuts this year beat expectations? Definitely. We started with one cut in mind, but now it's 75 bps total baked in, thanks to weak jobs (only 22K added in August) and Powell's dovish signals. PCE inflation is at 2.9%, so they'll ease to neutral rates by year-end.

Do I expect 25 bps or 50 bps? I'm betting 25 bps, with 88% market odds. But there's a 12% shot at 50 bps if core CPI is under 0.3% monthly—up from zero before jobs data. Even at expectations, the Fed will ease carefully.

Will PPI and CPI change the rate cut? Yes, they're huge for inflation checks. PPI's drop already boosted cut bets, and tariffs could heat things up. A hot CPI might pause cuts and hurt stocks, but experts say it won't stop easing unless it's way over 3.2%.

In summary, soft data could spark a rally in stocks and crypto. I've got light longs in tech and Bitcoin, hedged with yen. The pullback's done, cuts will surprise positively, and I'm eyeing 25 bps. Fed easing is on track—let's hope for that breakout!

Looking ahead, tariffs from the Trump administration are the wildcard here—they're already blamed for manufacturing losses of 12,000 jobs in August and could push inflation higher, complicating the Fed's path. But with job growth averaging just 29,000 over the summer, the pressure's on Powell to act fast and keep growth from stalling further. I'm watching how CPI breaks down by category; if shelter costs ease, that'd be a big green light for more cuts.

If the data surprises soft, I see Bitcoin testing $120K quickly and the S&P pushing past 6,500 by October. But a hot print? That could mean a quick dip to S&P 6,400 before rebounding on cut assurances. Either way, this release sets the tone for Q4—I'm staying nimble and ready to add to positions on any weakness.

As a retail investor, I focus mainly on the US and Singapore markets, combining a mix of technical trading and long-term investing strategies. I enjoy analyzing charts, spotting patterns, and making calculated moves based on both market sentiment and fundamentals. While I'm not a professional, I treat my portfolio seriously and continue to learn and grow with each trade. If you're also navigating the markets and enjoy discussing stocks, options, or market trends, feel free to follow me. Let's learn and grow together as a community.

@Tiger_comments  @TigerStars