ππβ‘οΈ Rivian Is Coiling for a Monster Moveβ¦ Will Traders Play the Breakout With $16 Calls or Sell $14 Puts for Stock Exposure? β‘οΈππ
$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ $Volkswagen AG(VLKPY)$ $Ford(F)$ Iβm fully convinced $RIVN is pressing into one of its most critical inflection points since going public. The charts, the fundamentals, and the options chain all align for a probability-weighted roadmap. πβWould you play the breakout with $16 calls for convexity, or sell $14 puts for discounted stock exposure at $12.50?
π Technical Compression & Setup
Rivian is pressing into the top of a symmetrical wedge on the weekly chart, with multi-year Bollinger Band compression and bullish RSI divergence signaling energy buildup. The 20-month SMA has flipped to support, a strong trend change marker.
$15.50 is the key breakout line. A weekly close above it could confirm bullish momentum, targeting $16β17 near term and stretching to $18β20. The ambitious measured move into $27β35 is plausible if EV sentiment improves and Rivian executes. Invalidation sits below $12.50, with interim support near $12.20.
π― Options Trade Setups (Nov 21, ~71D)
π΅ Buying $16 Calls (Breakout Convexity)
β’ Premium: ~$0.84
β’ Delta: 0.367 (accelerates toward 0.50+ above $16)
β’ Gamma: 0.098 (convex upside kick)
β’ Theta: -0.010 (low decay)
β’ Vega: 0.023 (cheap IV, upside from expansion)
Pros: Limited risk (max loss = premium), explosive reward if breakout runs $16β18. Low IV makes calls attractive, Vega helps if vol expands.
Cons: Needs decisive move over $15.50; otherwise time decay chips away.
Best for: Traders bullish on breakout confirmation, seeking leveraged upside with capped risk.
π΄ Selling $14 Puts (Stock at Discount)
β’ Premium: ~$1.50
β’ Delta: -0.448
β’ Effective entry: ~$12.50 if assigned
Pros: Collects ~$150/contract upfront, providing buffer. Entry sits near key support.
Cons: Risk of assignment if Rivian breaks down below $12.50. A sharp drop toward $10+ would outweigh the premium. Requires margin or cash-secured capital.
Best for: Investors comfortable owning RIVN stock lower, willing to accept downside for income.
βοΈ Interpretation:
Calls give convexity and Gamma upside if breakout holds; puts give income and discounted stock entry but carry catch-the-falling-knife risk.
βοΈ Volkswagen Semiconductor Catalyst
At the IAA Mobility Summit, Volkswagen and Rivian unveiled a joint semiconductor procurement venture covering 50+ categories of chips. Context: the first Golf needed ~30 chips; modern EVs like the ID.7 need ~18,000. By aligning with VWβs global scale, Rivian secures supply and gains co-development power in next-gen silicon, a real moat for software-defined vehicles.
π‘ AI & Databricks Link
Rivian is integrated into Databricksβ $4B AI run rate, reflecting how AI-driven data and manufacturing are converging with EV innovation. This builds Rivianβs identity as more than a carmaker, itβs becoming a software-defined automaker.
π Fundamentals & Deliveries
Wall Street projects just 75k R2 deliveries by 2027 and 268k by 2030. For a $45k SUV with halved BOM and a streamlined die-cast process, these are conservative numbers β and a gift if Rivian executes. A low bar for delivery growth sets up upside surprises.
π Options Flow & Sentiment
β’ Put/Call ratio: 0.38 vs 0.43 average (calls leading puts).
β’ IV30: 59.26, bottom quartile β options are relatively cheap.
β’ Momentum: stock +18% in the past month, +5% YoY.
π Key Levels Iβm Tracking
β’ Breakout confirmation: $15.50+ weekly close
β’ Targets: $16β17 β stretch $18β20
β’ Mid-term: $20β28 if breakout matures
β’ Invalidation: close below $12.50 with volume
πβIf Rivian clears $15.50, would you rather take the $16 calls for breakout convexity, or sell the $14 puts for discounted stock exposure at $12.50?
π’ Donβt miss out! Like, Repost and Follow me for exclusive setups, cutting-edge trends, and insights that move markets ππ Iβm obsessed with hunting down the next big movers and sharing strategies that crush it. Letβs outsmart the market and stack those gains together! π
Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC πππππ
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @TigerObserver @TigerWire @TigerPM @1PC @Zarkness
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
Rivian traded 26.9M shares by mid-session on Sept 11, which puts it on pace to close above the stockβs average daily volume of ~40Mβ50M. Rising volume into a wedge breakout is a key confirmation signal. It shows real participation behind the move rather than a low-liquidity drift. If Rivian finishes the day with 40M+ shares, it reinforces the validity of the $15.50 breakout level and strengthens the case for the $16β17 target zone.
Rivian traded 26.9M shares by mid-session on Sept 11, which puts it on pace to close above the stockβs average daily volume of ~40Mβ50M. Rising volume into a wedge breakout is a key confirmation signal. It shows real participation behind the move rather than a low-liquidity drift. If Rivian finishes the day with 40M+ shares, it reinforces the validity of the $15.50 breakout level and strengthens the case for the $16β17 target zone.