To The Moon

🚀 Robinhood & AppLovin Join the S&P 500: Buy Now or Sell the News?

Big news for two of 2025’s most-watched stocks: Robinhood ($Robinhood(HOOD)$  ) and AppLovin $AppLovin Corporation(APP)$   will officially join the S&P 500 index. For many retail investors, that alone feels like a stamp of legitimacy — the kind of milestone that takes a company from “growth story” to “mainstream core holding.”

But here’s the dilemma. Both stocks have already rallied hard. Robinhood is up 200% YTD, riding the retail trading boom and growing crypto exposure. AppLovin has been even hotter, compounding massive gains — up 278% in 2023, 700% in 2024, and another 68% so far in 2025.

So the big question for Tigers: is S&P 500 inclusion the start of another leg higher, or the perfect setup for a “sell the news” moment?

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📈 Why Index Inclusion Matters

For Robinhood and AppLovin, entry into the S&P 500 is more than just bragging rights. It has real, mechanical consequences:

Forced Buying: Passive funds tracking the index must now buy shares, adding demand no matter the valuation.

Liquidity & Credibility: Being in the S&P signals “we’ve made it” to big institutional investors.

Broader Awareness: Retail traders who follow index names will now see $HOOD and $APP alongside giants like Apple and Microsoft.

In short: inclusion boosts demand, stability, and visibility. But here’s the catch — markets anticipate these effects. That means the rally often comes before the official inclusion date. Once the forced buying is done, prices can cool quickly.

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🐯 Robinhood ($HOOD): Meme Stock Broker or Fintech Growth Story?

Robinhood is a polarising stock. On one hand, it’s the broker of choice for millions of retail traders, often tied to the wild swings of AMC, GameStop, and crypto tokens. That reputation brings both brand strength and volatility.

On the numbers side, Robinhood has shown progress:

Trading volumes are up as retail activity returns.

Crypto trading — a big margin driver — has bounced alongside Bitcoin’s rise.

The firm has been rolling out new products (IRAs, credit cards, Gold subscriptions).

But the bear case is clear:

Revenue is still heavily tied to transaction activity (volatile).

Competition from Schwab, Fidelity, and even Cash App is real.

Robinhood’s brand is strong, but will users stay loyal once markets turn quiet?

At 200% YTD gains, bulls argue Robinhood is finally scaling profitably. Bears warn the hype cycle looks eerily similar to 2021.

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🎮 AppLovin ($APP): Quietly Becoming a Cash Machine

Unlike Robinhood, AppLovin isn’t a household name. But in the world of mobile ads, gaming software, and AI-driven marketing, it’s quietly become a juggernaut.

AppLovin’s pitch is simple but powerful: its AI tools help mobile app developers maximise revenue by targeting ads more effectively. With mobile gaming still a massive global market, AppLovin has turned into a cash machine.

The results show it:

Explosive profit growth in 2023–2024 sent shares up over 1,000% in 2 years.

It’s now being compared to Nvidia in its niche — dominant, high-margin, and with secular AI tailwinds.

Analysts argue its growth is still underappreciated compared to larger ad-tech names like Meta or Alphabet.

The risk? Valuation. After compounding so quickly, skeptics argue AppLovin is priced for perfection. Any slowdown in ad spend or gaming trends could trigger a steep correction.

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🔍 Robinhood vs AppLovin — Who’s Stronger for the S&P 500?

Robinhood’s Edge

Huge brand recognition with retail traders.

Growth optionality in crypto + new fintech products.

A revival of “meme stock energy” could drive flows.

AppLovin’s Edge

Strong, profitable business model.

AI-powered ad tech with structural growth tailwinds.

Institutional investors see it as a serious cash-flow machine, not just hype.

If you want speculation + volatility, Robinhood fits the bill. If you want AI-driven growth + fundamentals, AppLovin looks steadier.

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⚠️ The Sell-the-News Risk

History shows a pattern: when stocks join the S&P 500, they often rally ahead of inclusion — then fade once the passive funds finish buying. Tesla’s S&P debut in 2020 is a prime example. The inclusion was hyped, shares spiked, then cooled off for months.

For Robinhood and AppLovin, the same risk applies. With both stocks already up triple digits, the probability of “sell the news” profit-taking is high.

That said, the long-term trajectory matters more. If you believe Robinhood can monetise its user base like Square or Coinbase, or if you believe AppLovin can keep riding the AI ad wave, dips could be buying opportunities.

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💡 Investor Takeaways

For retail Tigers trying to decide:

1. Don’t just chase headlines. Index inclusion is real, but the biggest gains often come before the news.

2. Separate business models from hype. Robinhood’s volatility is opportunity and risk. AppLovin’s fundamentals look stronger, but valuation is stretched.

3. Think horizon. If you’re trading, watch for a “sell the news” dip. If you’re investing, ask: do I want to hold these names through the next 3–5 years?

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🤔 Discussion Questions

1. Robinhood vs AppLovin — which do you think has the stronger business model for long-term S&P success?

2. Index inclusion hype — do you view this as a lasting bullish signal or just a short-term trade?

3. Your pick — if you had to hold one for the next 12 months, would it be $HOOD or $APP?

4. Would you buy into strength here, or wait for a post-inclusion dip?

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