To The Moon

$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$

The IPO Boom Returns: AI, Crypto, and $40B in Fundraising

After a muted cycle of tech listings in 2022–2023, the IPO market is roaring back in 2025. Fueled by artificial intelligence breakthroughs, a revitalized crypto market, and renewed risk appetite on Wall Street, global IPO fundraising is projected by JPMorgan to reach $40 billion this year. That would mark a sharp rise from $27.5 billion in 2024, signaling a broader shift in investor sentiment from caution to growth.

Within this resurgence, blockchain companies are moving into the spotlight. Just as the dot-com boom of the late 1990s saw internet startups flood the markets, the 2025 IPO class increasingly features crypto-native firms looking to build legitimacy in public markets.

In the past two weeks alone, two highly symbolic filings emerged: Gemini, a U.S.-based crypto exchange founded by the Winklevoss twins, and Figure Technologies, a fintech innovator focused on tokenizing real-world assets (RWAs). Both firms are chasing the precedent set by Circle Internet Financial (CRCL), the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, which successfully navigated the path to becoming a publicly listed crypto-native company.

This raises a defining question for investors: who will become the next Circle, and which business model—exchange or RWA—will dominate the coming wave of crypto IPOs?

Circle Internet Financial: The Benchmark

Before assessing Gemini and Figure, it’s worth revisiting Circle’s IPO. As the issuer of USDC, one of the world’s largest dollar-backed stablecoins, Circle occupies a unique position in the crypto ecosystem. Stablecoins have become the backbone of digital asset liquidity, serving as the bridge between traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi).

Circle’s IPO did several things for the industry:

1. It proved that crypto firms can survive SEC scrutiny and meet the standards of public markets.

2. It established stablecoin issuance as a scalable, high-margin business model, given that issuers profit from the float on reserve assets.

3. It signaled that Wall Street is increasingly open to crypto infrastructure companies, not just exchanges.

For Gemini and Figure, Circle’s playbook demonstrates both the possibilities and pitfalls of going public. A strong regulatory foundation, transparent revenue streams, and a clear path to profitability will be critical.

Gemini: The Regulated Exchange with Lingering Shadows

Gemini’s brand has long rested on compliance. Founded in 2014, the exchange embraced New York’s BitLicense when others avoided it, positioning itself as the safe and regulated alternative. That pitch resonated with institutions wary of regulatory risk, particularly during times when Binance and Coinbase faced ongoing disputes with regulators.

Yet Gemini’s journey has been turbulent:

• The Earn Program Collapse Gemini partnered with Genesis Global to offer interest-bearing accounts. When Genesis collapsed amid the broader 2022–2023 crypto winter, billions in customer funds were frozen. Gemini faced lawsuits and regulatory investigations, denting its reputation.

• Market Share Decline While Coinbase consolidated its dominance in the U.S. and Binance retained global leadership, Gemini’s trading volume shrank. At one point, Gemini controlled just 1–2% of U.S. exchange volume, raising doubts about its scalability.

• Financial Performance Reports suggest Gemini has faced operating losses in recent years, pressured by thinner volumes and rising compliance costs.

• IPO Narrative Going public offers Gemini the chance to rebuild trust and raise capital. Investors will want clarity on whether Gemini can return to growth, attract institutions, and diversify beyond trading fees.

The central investor dilemma: Is Gemini simply too small and too late to compete with Coinbase, or can it carve out a sustainable niche as the “compliant exchange” for institutions?

Figure Technologies: The RWA Pioneer

If Gemini represents crypto’s past, Figure Technologies may embody its future. Founded by Mike Cagney, the former CEO of SoFi, Figure is building an ecosystem around the Provenance Blockchain, designed specifically for financial applications.

The RWA Vision

Real-world asset tokenization seeks to bring traditional financial products—credit, real estate, bonds, and private equity—onto blockchains. By digitizing ownership and settlement, tokenization promises:

• Lower costs: cutting out intermediaries and automating back-office processes.

• Faster settlement: moving from days to near-instant transactions.

• Transparency: blockchain records reduce counterparty risk.

• Global access: fractionalized assets can be opened to new classes of investors.

Figure has already deployed blockchain-based home equity lines of credit, mortgage securitizations, and private funds platforms. These pilot programs highlight the trillion-dollar potential if tokenization becomes mainstream.

Why the Market Cares

• Institutional Interest: BlackRock, JPMorgan, and Franklin Templeton have already piloted tokenized funds, lending credibility to the RWA thesis.

• Macro Tailwinds: With global private credit markets surpassing $1.5 trillion, the appetite for more efficient infrastructure is massive.

• IPO Use Case: Listing would provide Figure with the capital and visibility needed to scale partnerships and expand Provenance adoption.

The investor thesis: Figure could become the rails of next-generation finance, akin to what Visa and Mastercard are to payments.

Exchange Model vs. RWA Model

The two IPO candidates highlight fundamentally different crypto business models.

Exchanges (Gemini, Coinbase)

• Pros:

  Strong brand visibility

  Immediate revenue from trading fees

  Ability to pivot into custody, staking, and derivatives

• Cons:

  Highly cyclical (revenue tied to trading volumes)

  Regulatory risk is constant

  Increasing fee compression as competition rises

RWA Tokenization (Figure)

• Pros:

  Long-term structural growth story

  Revenue tied to financial infrastructure, not just speculation

  Alignment with institutional adoption and regulatory support

• Cons:

  Adoption is still in early stages

  Requires deep integration with traditional finance

  Business model less familiar to retail investors

For short-term gains, exchanges often shine during bull runs. For long-term institutional adoption, RWA tokenization may prove the more transformative bet.

Risks and Challenges Ahead

Both Gemini and Figure face hurdles:

• Regulatory Uncertainty: SEC and global regulators continue to debate classification of crypto assets, custody rules, and stablecoin frameworks.

• Market Cyclicality: Exchanges live and die by volatility. A sudden downturn could crush revenues.

• Liquidity Risks: Tokenized assets may not attract enough secondary market demand to function efficiently.

• Valuation Stretch: If IPOs price in too much future growth, early investors risk overpaying.

Verdict: Who Could Be the Next Circle?

• Gemini: A defensive play. If the company can prove profitability and rebuild trust, it could serve as the compliant exchange for institutions. But investors may worry about its scale relative to Coinbase.

• Figure: A growth play. If RWA adoption accelerates, Figure could position itself as a category-defining company in financial infrastructure.

In the coming IPO boom, investors will need to decide whether to favor short-term trading platforms or long-term tokenization infrastructure.

Conclusion: The Dawn of Crypto’s IPO Era

Circle opened the gates. Gemini and Figure now follow with starkly different narratives—one rooted in exchange trust, the other in infrastructure innovation. Together, they represent crypto’s evolution from a speculative asset class to a foundational component of global markets.

For investors, the decision is less about whether crypto IPOs will matter and more about which business model will endure. Exchanges may provide near-term cash flow, but RWA tokenization has the potential to reshape finance on a trillion-dollar scale.

In this new IPO era, the stars that rise will not just onboard the next wave of retail traders—they will define the very architecture of tomorrow’s financial system.