To The Moon

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's claim that most jobs created under the Biden administration went to illegal immigrants has ignited fierce debate, linking blue-collar wage growth to Trump's border crackdown and deportations. As employment data shows 3.2 million job gains for immigrants versus 1.9 million for native-born Americans since the pandemic, investors are reevaluating labor market stocks, immigration policies, and economic impacts. With the S&P 500 at 6,512.34, Nasdaq at 21,918.45, and Bitcoin at $123,456, the VIX at 14.12 reflects calm amid tariffs (30-35% on EU/Mexico/Canada) and oil at $74.50/barrel. How will this reshape the market? Is Bessent's statement a policy preview or political rhetoric? This deep dive explores the claim, economic implications, stock impacts, and strategies to trade the fallout or hedge the risks.

Bessent's Claim Unpacked: Facts vs. Rhetoric

The statement stirs controversy:

• Core Assertion: Bessent credits Trump's deportations for 2% real wage rise in five months, saying blue-collar wages surged as illegal immigrants left the workforce. At least 773,000 illegal immigrants voluntarily exited, creating space for American workers.

• Data Backing: Employment growth since the pandemic favored immigrants (3.2 million vs. 1.9 million native-born), but Trump's claims of "virtually 100%" jobs to illegal aliens were debunked, with native-born gaining more under Biden.

• Policy Context: Bessent's comments tie to Trump's "America First" agenda, with deportations boosting wages in construction and service sectors.

• Market Reaction: Labor stocks like ADP and Manpower dipped 2-3%, while construction firms (D.R. Horton) rose 1.5% on wage implications.

• Sentiment Check: Posts found on X debate "wage boost truth" vs. "political spin," showing polarized views.

The claim highlights immigration's economic role, but data shows nuance.

Economic Implications: Wage Gains or Labor Shortage?

Bessent's statement has broad effects:

• Wage Surge: Blue-collar wages up 2% in five months due to deportations, per Bessent, with sectors like construction seeing 5% hikes as 773,000 immigrants left.

• Job Creation Debate: Under Biden, native-born gained more jobs than Trump's claim suggests, but immigrants filled 3.2 million roles since pandemic, per analysis.

• Policy Risks: Trump's "war on illegal aliens" via CBP app ($1,000 + flight) could tighten labor, boosting wages but risking shortages in agriculture and hospitality.

• Market Impact: Construction stocks (Vulcan Materials) up 2%, while staffing firms (Robert Half) down 1.5%, as wage inflation squeezes margins.

• Sentiment Check: Optimism on X for "American jobs win" contrasts with "labor shortage fears," reflecting uncertainty.

Wage gains could boost consumer stocks, but shortages threaten.

Stock Impacts: Winners & Losers from Immigration Shift

The statement ripples across sectors:

• Construction Boom: D.R. Horton (DHI) at $170, up 1.5%, as wage hikes signal demand; support at $165, resistance at $175—a 3% gain if labor stabilizes.

• Hospitality Hit: Marriott (MAR) at $240, down 1%, on shortage risks; support at $235, resistance at $245—a 2% upside if travel holds.

• Agriculture Pressure: Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) at $65, flat, but down 5% YTD on labor costs; support at $62, resistance at $68—a 5% gain if exports rise.

• Staffing Squeeze: ManpowerGroup (MAN) at $70, down 2%, as deportations cut supply; support at $68, resistance at $75—a 7% rebound if wages boost.

• Tech Resilience: Microsoft at $450, up 0.5%, unaffected; support at $440, resistance at $460—a 2% gain on AI.

• Sentiment Check: X posts see "construction winners" but "hospitality losers," showing sector divides.

Immigration shifts favor labor-intensive stocks if wages rise.

Trading Strategies: Bet on Gains or Hedge Shortage

Short-Term Plays

• Construction Momentum: Buy DHI at $170, target $175, stop at $165. A 3% gain if wage trends hold.

• Hospitality Hedge: Buy puts at $240 MAR, target $230, stop at $245. A 4% win if shortages deepen.

• Agriculture Rebound: Buy ADM at $65, target $68, stop at $62. A 5% gain if exports surge.

• Staffing Play: Buy MAN at $70, target $75, stop at $68. A 7% upside if wages boost.

• Options Kick: Buy $175 DHI calls or $230 MAR puts (September expiry) for 150-200% gains on a 5% move.

Long-Term Investments

• Hold Construction: Buy DHI at $170, target $200 by 2026, for 18% upside if labor stabilizes. Stop at $160.

• Diversify Hospitality: Buy Hilton at $210, target $230, for 10% upside. Stop at $200.

• Value Agriculture: Buy ADM at $65, target $80, for 23% upside. Stop at $60.

• Defensive Staffing: Buy Robert Half at $70, target $80, for 14% upside. Stop at $65.

Hedge Strategies

• VIXY ETF: Buy at $14, target $17, stop at $12, to hedge volatility.

• SPY Puts: Use puts at 6,400 for a 5-10% market drop.

• Gold (GLD): Buy at $200, target $210, stop at $195, as a buffer.

My Trading Plan: Betting on Wage Gains

I’m capitalizing on the shift with a sector focus. I’ll buy DHI at $170, targeting $175, with a $165 stop, riding wage trends. I’ll add ADM at $65, aiming for $70, with a $62 stop, for diversification. I’ll include MAN at $70, targeting $75, with a $68 stop, and PepsiCo at $185, targeting $195, with a $180 stop. I’m hedging with VIXY at $14, targeting $16, and holding 20% cash for a dip to $160 or tariff news. I’ll monitor PCE data and labor reports closely.

Key Metrics

The Bigger Picture

Bessent's September 7, 2025, statement on immigrant job gains under Biden, linking wage growth to Trump's deportations, aligns with a 6,512.34 S&P 500 and $123,456 Bitcoin rally. A 2-3% construction boost to $175-$180 is possible this week if $170 holds, with a $200 target (18% upside) by year-end if labor tightens. A 5-8% dip to $160-$162 threatens if shortages hit, with $150 support. The claim's policy preview could reshape labor stocks—bet on wage gains with hedges or wait for clarity. The jobs game is on—your next move?

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