To The Moon

$Oscar Health, Inc.(OSCR)$ I’m convinced $OSCR is one of the most asymmetric opportunities in the market right now. The mix of high short interest, relentless accumulation signals, breakout technicals, and management reaffirming guidance has created a setup that’s too powerful to ignore. The real squeeze hasn’t even started.

📊 Short Data That Screams Convexity

Short interest stands at nearly 24% with open short positions at 57.7M shares. That translates to just over 3 days to cover. Daily short volume remains elevated at 2.75M, with whales steadily participating. This is tinder waiting for a spark. Once momentum accelerates, the unwind could force a violent repricing higher.

🧩 Technical Blueprint for Expansion

Price is pressing into the $20–$22 zone. A shallow rejection here could actually be bullish: it would set up a massive inverse head and shoulders, projecting toward $30+. The short-term support sits at $15.44, well above prior consolidation. Both short- and long-term trend signals are flashing “obvious rising trend,” reinforced by a W-bottom structure on the candlesticks. The 4H and weekly Keltner/Bollinger bands are in full expansion mode, confirming institutional accumulation.

📈 Fundamentals That Defy the Bear Case

From 2021 to 2025, revenue expanded from $3.6B to $5B; an incredible 233% growth. Membership doubled in two years. While markets expected billions in guidance cuts tied to ACA risk, Oscar flipped the narrative and raised guidance by $1B without even factoring in an ACA extension. That’s operational strength backed by confidence.

🗝 Policy Tailwinds and Market Positioning

If ACA is extended, the revenue and membership base could inflect even higher, forcing analysts to remodel assumptions and shorts to scramble. Oscar Health has proven it can raise guidance even without this policy tailwind; extension would be the accelerant.

📅 Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference Catalyst

At the 2025 Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference, Oscar Health reaffirmed full-year revenue guidance at $12B to $12.2B, above consensus, underscoring management’s confidence. Utilization trends were reported as stabilizing, alleviating cost fears. Strategic pillars highlighted included utilization management, AI-driven efficiency, and expansion into the Individual Coverage HRA (ICHRA) market. Q2 results showed revenue up nearly 29% YoY to $2.9B, though losses persisted. Analysts noted subsidy expirations in 2026 remain a risk, yet the reaffirmation and strategy reinforced credibility. The stock responded positively, rallying 5–7% post-conference.

🔥 Conclusion

I’m fully convinced $OSCR isn’t just a speculative squeeze play; it’s a credibility reset with asymmetric upside. The short data is explosive, the technicals are primed, management reaffirmed guidance, and policy tailwinds could supercharge fundamentals. These are not predictions; they’re probability-weighted frameworks. In my view, the asymmetric reward setup here is one of the best in the market right now.

❓Do you think $OSCR is still being valued as a traditional insurer, or are we starting to witness the early stages of the market re-rating it as a scalable technology-driven healthcare platform?

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