To The Moon

With the recent stock price movement of SoFi, it seems like $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ might be making some potential upside move from its current level.

In this article I would like to share as I break down the feasibility of a long strangle on SoFi Technologies (SOFI) with an 10 October 2025 expiration using my usual multi-factor lens.

I have a long-term position on SoFi, so I am exploring option setup using long stangle to see if I can seize opportunities for SoFi stock movement.

Current Snapshot

• SOFI Price: $25.38

• Forecast for October 2025:

• Low: ~$26.70

• High: ~$36.91

• Expected Close: ~$34.18

This implies a potential 39.5% upside from current levels, with a downside floor still above current price, suggesting bullish skew.

Long Strangle Setup (Conceptual)

A long strangle involves:

• Buying an OTM Call (e.g., $30 or $35 strike)

• Buying an OTM Put (e.g., $20 or $22.50 strike)

• Both expiring October 10, 2025

You profit if SOFI moves significantly in either direction beyond the combined premium cost.

Technical & Macro Overlay

Macro backdrop: Fintech remains volatile, but SoFi’s neobank expansion, product launches, and deposit growth are driving investor enthusiasm.

Scenario Modeling

I have prepared the simulation of three paths of how things might turned out.

Bullish Breakout

• Price hits $36.91

• $35 Call gains intrinsic value

• $20 Put expires worthless

• Net payoff depends on premium, but upside convexity is strong

Bearish Breakdown

• Price drops to ~$20

• $20 Put becomes valuable

• $35 Call expires worthless

• Still profitable if move is sharp enough

Stagnation (~$25–$28)

• Both legs expire OTM

• Entire premium lost

• Risk: Theta decay and low realized vol

Strategic Take

As I have my appetite for asymmetric setups, this strangle could work if:

• We are expecting earnings volatility, regulatory headlines, or macro shocks

• We need to be comfortable with premium erosion if SOFI trades sideways

• I have layer in volatility cones and return cone stress tests to refine strike selection

In the next section, I would like to share how I architect this payoff diagram and simulate breakeven thresholds across volatility regimes for the SOFI long strangle expiring 10 October 2025.

We will work through the structure together and iterate based on my preferred strikes or macro overlays.

Step 1: Define the Strangle Structure

Let us assume the following:

• Current SOFI price: $25.38

• Call Strike: $35

• Put Strike: $20

• Estimated Premiums (based on current IV and tenor): Call (35 strike) ≈ $2.10 Put (20 strike) ≈ $1.80

• Total Cost: $3.90

Payoff Diagram (Conceptual)

Here is how the payoff behaves at expiration:

We will profit if SOFI moves below $16.10 or above $38.90, those are our breakeven thresholds.

Step 2: Breakeven Simulation Across Volatility Regimes

In this section, I will show you as I simulate how breakevens shift under different IV environments:

Insight: Higher implied volatility widens breakeven bands, increasing cost but also enhancing convexity if SOFI breaks out.

Strategic Layering

We could:

• Overlay return cones to assess probability of breaching breakevens

• Add theta decay curves to visualize time erosion

• Compare with long straddle if you expect sharper moves

Final Note

If we looked at how SoFi trading have been volatile, so there might be a chance of significant price movement in either direction, considering a potential September rate cut, and also the next quarter earnings for SoFi.

I believe these factors could make SoFi a candidate for Long Strangle play.

Summary

As of September 5, 2025, a long strangle strategy for SoFi ($SOFI) appears to be a feasible, though speculative, options trading strategy.

A long strangle profits from a significant price move in either direction, and SoFi's stock performance and recent news suggest it is a candidate for such a play.

The stock has been highly volatile, with a 52-week range of $6.75 to $26.60, and recently spiked. SoFi also announced a new AI-focused ETF, which could introduce further volatility and attract attention.

However, executing a long strangle on SoFi carries risks. The strategy requires a very large move to break even, and time decay works against it. The success hinges on a major price swing occurring before the options expire, and the market could simply remain range-bound, leading to the loss of the entire premium paid.

While possible, the trade is better suited for a high-risk, high-reward approach, especially ahead of a known event like an earnings report or major announcement.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think a long strangle is suitable for SoFi if you are looking for a high-risk, high-reward approach?

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.