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Based on a Decade of Data, Which Sector Has Been Most Resilient in September?

From historical data on U.S. stock sectors obtained from Bloomberg, it can be seen that in the past ten years, the S&P energy sector has risen six times in September. Particularly, during the market crashes of September 2021 and 2023, the energy sector demonstrated a completely opposite trend compared to other sectors.

However, the energy sector also experienced significant declines in September, such as in 2015 and 2022 when the U.S. entered a rate-hiking cycle, which suppressed oil prices in the latter half of the year. In September 2020, oil prices remained low due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The healthcare sector, often considered a defensive stock, did not serve as a safe haven in September, instead showing a high probability of decline at 80% over the past decade.

Considering the average gains and losses, all sectors experienced declines in September. However, the energy sector had the smallest average decline at 0.45%. The real estate sector performed the worst, with an average decline of 3.25%. Next was the technology sector, with a monthly decline of 2.43%. Over the past 10 years, the technology sector has risen 4 times in September.

Although the energy sector has the smallest average decline, it is also the most volatile, with an average monthly change exceeding 6%, significantly higher than other sectors. The consumer staples sector is relatively stable, with a monthly fluctuation of 2.59%.

Among other sectors, utilities, also considered a defensive investment, had mixed results in September, with an average decline of 1.38%. Over the past 10 years, the utilities sector has risen 5 times in September.

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