To The Moon

Driven by investors' expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates this month and continued strong demand from foreign central banks,New York gold futures price topped $3,600 on Tuesday, hitting a record high。

Gold spot prices also surged to all-time highs above $3,533 an ounce。

Behind the surge in gold prices, strong demand for gold by central banks is one of the key driving forces.

According to data compiled and published on X by Tavi Costa, partner and macro strategist at Crescat Capital,As gold prices set new records, foreign central banks'$SPDR Gold ETF (GLD) $Holdings surpass U.S. Treasury Bond for first time since 1996。

"In my opinion, this may be the beginning of one of the most significant global rebalancing we have experienced in recent history," he wrote.

A survey of central banks conducted by the World Gold Council (WGC) shows that the vast majority of respondents believe that the gold reserves of central banks around the world will increase in the next 12 months.

The U.S. non-farm payrolls report for August will be released this Friday (September 5), which is the last important labor force data ahead of the next FOMC meeting on September 16-17. If non-farm payrolls data is weaker than expected, investors may increase their bets on the Fed's interest rate cut this month. Markets are now putting around a 90% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September.

Lower interest rates typically boost gold prices because gold becomes more attractive when yields on interest-bearing assets are lower.

Pepperstone research strategist Ahmad Assiri said concerns about a recovery in inflation and increased confidence that the Fed will soon restart its easing cycle helped boost gold prices.

"In this sense, gold has become a barometer of market uneasiness and uncertainty in terms of inflation, monetary policy, and jobs," he added.

Since the beginning of this year, gold futures prices have risen by 36%, far exceeding the S&P 500 Index and Bitcoin, which have risen by 8% and 19% respectively during the same period.

Gold prices rose more than 3.5% in August, continuing the monthly upward momentum this year.

JC parents, founder of allstarscharts.com, pointed out that since 1968, gold has never closed higher for eight consecutive monthly months.

"This momentum is unprecedented, and it didn't happen out of thin air, but was the result of exceptionally strong global demand," he wrote on Monday. "From central banks increasing reserves, to investors hedging against inflation and currency devaluation, demand for gold has reached unprecedented levels."

Wall Street collectively singing long

Wall Street doesn't think the gold bull market will stop there.

On Tuesday, UBS reiterated its forecast that gold prices will rise to $3,700 an ounce by June 2026, noting that "the possibility of gold prices rising to $4,000 is not ruled out amid the risk of worsening geopolitical or economic conditions."

Morgan Stanley set a year-end target price for gold at $3,800 per ounce in its latest research report. The report particularly emphasizes that the strong negative correlation between gold and the US dollar is still the key pricing logic. If the current the US Dollar Index continues to depreciate, it will directly benefit precious metals denominated in US dollars.

Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs analysts reiterated their forecast that gold prices will reach $4,000 an ounce by mid-2026. The bank pointed out that factors supporting gold prices to remain high include continued gold purchases by central banks and capital inflows from gold ETFs.

For investors who are bullish on gold, they can use option strategies to go long on gold.

Options Strategy: Using Put Options to Go Long Gold

In the face of the strong trend of gold, we can use the option strategy to make efficient long trading. The current gold price is 325.59dollar, we can sellExpires October 10, 2025, exercise price $325, premium $672Put Option to go long gold.

This strategy can not only make profits when gold rises, but even if gold prices move sideways or fall slightly, you can still rely on premium to earn gains.

• Current price of underlying asset: $325.59

• Option Type: Put Option (Put)

• Strike price: $325

• Expiration date: 10 October 2025

• Premium: $672 (100 shares per contract, or $6.72 per share)

• Maximum Earnings: premium Revenue

  • The maximum profit of the seller is the premium received of US $672. As long as the underlying price at expiration is ≥ US $325, the option will be invalid, and the seller will keep all the premium income.

• Breakeven: Strike price − premium per share = 325 − 6.72 = $318.28

  • The overall profit is only when the underlying price is above $318.28 at expiration; Breakeven at $318.28; Below this price, there will be a loss.

sum up

Against the backdrop of global monetary easing and intensified geopolitical risks, gold has shown strong safe-haven demand. Using the options market, investors can establish long positions in gold at a lower cost by selling put options strategies. This can not only make a profit in the rising market, but even if the gold price trades sideways or falls slightly, it can also make a profit by virtue of the premium. It is a stable investment choice that conforms to the market trend.