To The Moon

Timing Is Everything.

When I decided to rejoin the investment adventure, it was at a “perfect” time because stocks were at an all-time low and market was washed with liquidity, thanks to US Fed’s quantitative easy (QE) policy.

US market staged a quick recovery, and stocks were aiming for the sky almost on a daily basis.

No sooner had the US market's wild ride zoomed to its peak (by end December 2021) than it began its descent, just as fast.

I was caught off guard because I was ill informed due to:

• Inexperience / Ignorance, thinking that the bull will run ‘forever’.

• Lack of reading to keep abreast what’s happening at ground level.

I promised not to let history repeats itself, thus began reading and learning, along the way.

Cue to present 2025, despite the level of domestic chaos that US is experiencing now, US stock market don’t seem to be “affected”.

Both $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ indexes have been charting new “highs” consistently.

Even its sudden fall on Tue, 02 Sep 2025 - a day after US Labour Day celebration, proved to be short-lived. (see below)

As of 02 Sep 2025 endday

• By midday, it began to recover from its intraday loss of more than 1% decline.

• By the time market closed post Labour Day, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq losses were -0.69% and -0.82% respectively.

This is where I begin to get a little uneasy because I feel detached-reality syndrome has descended - clouding our judgement.

I want to be able to time my exit (this time) before I get caught off guard again and then have to rebuild my holdings from “cheap” again.

According to Moody’s Analytics, Chief economist, Mark Zandi:

• Consumer spending, the backbone of the American economy, is flashing warning signs reminiscent of the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis.

• Latest data shows inflation-adjusted household spending has stalled in 2025.

• This raises concerns about the broader economy, said Zandi in an X-post dated 31 Aug 2025.

To this end, Moody’s Analytics data indicates that real consumer spending in 2025 has grown only slightly through July 2025, marking the weakest performance since the 2008–2009 recession. (see below)

As of end August 2025

• Unlike past recoveries, where spending steadily climbed in the first half of the year, 2025 stands out for its stagnation. 

• By June 2025, growth hovered near zero, below the 1% - 2% range typical of stable economic expansions.

• The weakness points to a sharp slowdown in consumer momentum despite relatively resilient job and wage growth.

US Economy in Danger zone

While Zandi noted the trend does not yet confirm a recession, the parallels with 2008 suggest the economy is treading dangerously close to one.

With consumer spending accounting for roughly ⅔ (or 67% of US GDP, any prolonged weakness in household outlays risks pushing the economy over the edge.

“Spending this year through July has barely budged from last year’s end – worse than any year since 2008-09. We all know what was going on then. This year’s sideways consumer spending isn’t consistent with a recession, but it is with an economy on the brink of one,” Zandi noted. 

This warning aligns with Zandi’s broader concerns.

Reported by Finbold, the economist through his assessments of various datasets indicates that:

• US’s states accounting for nearly ⅓ of US GDP are already in a recession or at high risk of slipping into one.

• Another ⅓ is treading water.

• While the last ⅓ is still expanding.

Zandi’s data modelling places the probability of a US economy downturn within a year at close to 50%.

At the same time, Zandi has flagged (1) weak job data, (2) slowing payroll growth, and (3) widespread industry job losses as further signs US economy may be on the brink.

This makes September 2025’s jobs reports all the more crucial to keep tabs of.

Earlier in August 2025, Zandi pointed to (a) declining labour force participation and (b) a shrinking foreign-born workforce as key contributors to the slowdown, as they undermine US’s growth potentials.

It is also worth noting that Zandi was among the earliest voices to warn about the housing bubble in the mid-2000s, a caution that proved accurate when the 2008 financial crisis unfolded.

My viewpoints: (mine only)

I am mildly disappointed with the Finbold post because it is a little short on other supporting details except for US consumer spending laying “flat” for H1 2025.

On 12 Aug 2025, US News reported that:

• $Goldman Sachs(GS)$ has forecasted US recession odds at 30%; with GDP at 1.25% (2025).

• $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ has revised downwards US recession probability to 40%, with negligible economic growth of 0.6% (2025).

• Federal Reserves Bank of New York’s recession probability model suggested a 28.9% chance of a US recession within the next 12 months.

Comparatively speaking, Moody Analytic’s Zandi estimates is more “conservative”.

Is it too one-dimensional to singularly depend on “jobs” readings to foretell recession’s arrival:

• Jobs data.

• Payroll growth.

• Job losses = Jobless claims (weekly & continuing).

Whatever the case may or may not be, will definitely spend more time this week, pouring over US jobs reports due out.

They are :

• Jobs opening & labour turnover surveys (JOLTs) - Wed, 03 Sep 2025.

• ADP non-farm payroll - Thu, 04 Sep 2025.

• Jobless claims - weekly & continuing - Thu, 04 Sep 2025.

• US non-farm payroll - Fri, 05 Sep 2025.

Will you be doing likewise or it does not matter ?

Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks.

Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks.

• Key Facts Before This Week’s Jobs Report ! Mon, 01 September. Pick post.

• NVDA Drags US Market Lower in September? Mon, 01 September. Pick post.

• US PCE - Rally US Mkt & Cuts Interest Rate? Fri, 29 August. Pick post.

• Do you think US will slip into recession by end 2025 or H1 2026 ?

• Do you think Jobs reports are the “best” indicators on state of US economy ?

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