To The Moon

🧩 More uncertainties are surrounding September's US markets.

🔍 $Visteon(VC)$ / $Blue Bird(BLBD)$ / $Penn Ent(PENN)$ : Heightened risk aversion, small-caps remain agile and reliable.

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Where Bluebirds Fly

| A Hard Rain's Gonna Fall

This Friday, the August non-farm payroll data will be released, offering critical insights into the health of the US labor market. On one hand, the data will indicate whether the labor market is further deteriorating; on the other, it reflects the performance of the newly appointed BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) commissioner, a Trump appointee, whose previous actions in July sparked significant controversy.

Currently, Wall Street’s consensus anticipates a less optimistic labor market. The unemployment rate for August is expected to rise from 4.2% to 4.3%, while non-farm payroll growth is projected at 78,000, remaining below the 100,000 threshold.

Last week, Trump attempted to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, marking the first time in the Federal Reserve’s 111-year history that a sitting president has sought to oust an incumbent board member. Federal Reserve governors typically serve a 14-year term but often step down before its completion. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) consists of 12 members, and the Federal Reserve will soon include three governors appointed by Trump. Should Trump-appointed governors form the majority, they will have the authority to influence the Fed's budget and personnel decisions, further undermining its independence.

Investor expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September continue to climb. Gold prices remain on an upward trajectory, with spot gold prices surging on Tuesday (September 2) to break past the $3,500 mark, hitting a historic high.

In the context of an almost certain rate cut next month, small-cap stocks are poised to gain stronger momentum. Notable among them are: 🔍 $Visteon(VC)$ / $Blue Bird(BLBD)$ / $Penn Ent(PENN)$.

| Market recap

Looking back at August, $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ gained 1.58%, marking its fifth consecutive month of growth, while $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 1.91%, achieving its fourth straight month of gains.

On the final trading day of August, most Big Tech stocks declined. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ and $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ both dropped over 3%, while $Alphabet(GOOG)$ edged higher, hitting a new record high.

On August 30, $NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index(HXC)$ climbed 1.55% and recorded an impressive 6.03% gain for the month, showcasing a better return potential compared to major indices. $Alibaba(BABA)$ surged nearly 13%, its best single-day performance since March 2023. Over the next three years, Alibaba plans to invest RMB 380 billion in capital expenditures and has developed a new AI chip as a Plan B in response to Nvidia's supply restrictions.

Megacaps - Sustainable abundance

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ : Master Plan Part IV revealed

Tesla has unveiled its “Master Plan Part 4,” which emphasizes achieving “sustainable abundance” through AI and robotics. Elon Musk added that approximately 80% of Tesla’s future value will likely come from Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot. Since 2006, Musk has released four “secret master plans” outlining Tesla’s broader mission and product roadmap.

However, a separate AI-related lawsuit highlights growing tensions between Musk and OpenAI. Xuechen Li, a founding engineer of xAI, is accused of stealing the company’s core codebase and planning to join competitor OpenAI. This has sparked a fierce legal battle. Li reportedly sold roughly $7 million worth of xAI shares in June and July 2025 and copied extensive confidential data to personal devices just three days before resigning. On August 28, xAI officially filed a lawsuit.

$Alphabet(GOOG)$ : Gemini sets record

In the global Top 100 AI Applications rankings, Google is rapidly closing the gap, making significant progress. While ChatGPT remains in the top spot, Alphabet has narrowed the distance through its multi-product matrix strategy. Gemini’s web traffic now captures about 12% of ChatGPT's visits, securing second place.

Alphabet’s AI application ecosystem is taking shape and should not be underestimated. Beyond Gemini, the developer-focused AI Studio has entered the Top 10 for the first time, its academic research tool NotebookLM ranks 13th, and the experimental AI platform Google Labs holds the 39th spot.

Additionally, reports suggest that Alphabet’s AI-enabled smart glasses have completed development and are set to launch in September.

Gold trade

The precious metals market has returned to the spotlight as COMEX gold and silver futures reached historic highs yesterday. COMEX gold hit an intraday peak of $3,557.1 per ounce, while COMEX silver touched a high of $41.64 per ounce.

Near-term: According to CME’s FedWatchl, there is an 89.6% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which has boosted market sentiment. Coupled with short-term profit-taking in the Asian markets, risk-averse demand has further driven up precious metals prices.

Long-term Outlook:

The global economy still faces growth pressures. Under the “new normal” of persistent tariff risks and geopolitical tensions, central banks worldwide continue to increase their gold reserves. This trend suggests that $SPDR Gold Shares(GLD)$ retains its appeal as both a hedge and a store of value, with significant upside potential.

Top movers

• Bitcoin mining company $IREN Ltd(IREN)$ soared 15%. Its annual Bitcoin mining revenue is expected to surpass $1 billion.

• Software design giant $Autodesk(ADSK)$ rose 9% after reporting better-than-expected Q2 earnings. Its flagship product, AutoCAD, remains among the most widely used design software globally.

• The Buy-Now-Pay-Later (BNPL) provider $Affirm Holdings, Inc.(AFRM)$ surged 11% as quarterly performance exceeded expectations, with gross merchandise volume (GMV) rising 43% year-over-year to $10.4 billion.

| Worth timely pursuit

With the Federal Reserve’s decision approaching, anticipation is growing for a potential rate cut at the next meeting on September 17. Against this backdrop, small-cap stocks are likely to gain stronger momentum. Notable mentions include 🔍 $Visteon(VC)$ / $Blue Bird(BLBD)$ / $Penn Ent(PENN)$ .

VC

$Visteon(VC)$ , a global leader in automotive component integration, is part of the Fortune 500. It designs and manufactures cockpit electronics and connected vehicle solutions for clients such as BMW, Daimler, Ford, and General Motors.

VC’s stock has recently defied market trends, repeatedly hitting new highs. After breaking above $126 last week, Visteon shares have climbed over 50% in the past three months, showcasing strong performance.

Visteon’s Q2 2025 results exceeded analysts' expectations, with EPS at $2.39 (versus $2.06 projected) and revenue at $969 million. Following this strong performance, Visteon raised its full-year guidance, signaling optimism for the remainder of the year.

BLBD

Founded in 1927, $Blue Bird(BLBD)$ specializes in manufacturing school buses. Often likened to Tesla in its industry, the company has emerged as one of the hottest EV stocks in the US, with its stock rising 152% in 2023 and another 43% in 2024.

On Reddit, users have praised Blue Bird as “perhaps the most successful EV company in the world right now.” The company also manufactures other specialty vehicles, including transit buses, motorhomes, mobile libraries, and mobile police command centers. Its current product lineup primarily focuses on school buses, student activity buses (SPAB), and specialty vehicle derivatives.

Benefiting from the US government’s reshoring manufacturing initiative, Blue Bird’s business is thriving. In the most recent quarter, it achieved $398 million in revenue and EPS of $1.19, both beating analyst estimates. Management raised its full-year guidance, reflecting market confidence. Analysts have described the company as demonstrating “strong execution amid low expectations.”

PENN

$Penn Ent(PENN)$ is a leading North American provider of integrated entertainment, sports content, and gaming experiences. Operating in 28 jurisdictions across North America, the company offers casinos, racetracks, online sports betting, and iCasino products through brands such as Hollywood Casino, L’Auberge, ESPN BET, and theScore BET.

Penn Entertainment’s stock has risen over 30% in the last three months. Its Q2 performance exceeded expectations, with adjusted earnings and revenue surpassing analyst forecasts.

Penn’s business consists of two segments: offline and online. Its brick-and-mortar casino business performed solidly, generating $1.4 billion in revenue with an adjusted EBITDAR margin of 33.8%. The company is also set to open its new Joliet Hollywood Casino on August 11.

On the online side, Penn’s sports betting and iGaming operations achieved record gaming revenue. The company has continued its stock repurchase program, buying back 5.8 million shares this quarter at an average price of $15.47 per share, totaling $90.3 million. Penn has committed to repurchasing at least $350 million worth of shares this year.

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