📺🍿🚀 Netflix: From 1997 DVD Rentals to a $500B Streaming Titan; Breaking Key Levels 🚀🍿📺
$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
🎬 Evolution & Subscriber Milestones
• 1998: Website launches with 925 rentals
• 2002: IPO at $15/share, ~$350M valuation
• 2007: Streaming goes live
• 2012: 25M subs
• 2017: 100M subs
• 2020: 200M subs
• 2025: 250M+ subs
Valuation growth mirrors the subscriber surge:
2002 $350M; 2005 $1B; 2010 $7B; 2015 $45B; 2020 $220B; 2025 $500B
💵 The Compounding Story
$10,000 invested at IPO in May 2002 is now worth $10.66M. That path wasn’t smooth:
• Nov 2021 peak: $5.8M
• May 2022 trough: $1.4M
• Jul 2025 rebound: $10.6M+
Volatility builds legends, and Netflix is a compounding legend.
🎥 Fun Fact: The $40 Blockbuster Fee That Changed Everything
Co-founder Reed Hastings came up with Netflix after being hit with a $40 late fee at Blockbuster for Apollo 13. That single moment led to a model without late fees, and the rest is streaming history.
🌍 Fun Fact: Netflix Crosses 300 Million Paid Members
As of 2025, Netflix has officially surpassed 300 million paid memberships worldwide. From a small California startup to one of the largest entertainment platforms on Earth, this milestone cements its global dominance.
📊 Q2 FY25 Earnings: Strength Across Regions
• Revenue: $11.1B (+16% Y/Y, +$20M beat)
– UCAN: $4.9B (+15%)
– EMEA: $3.5B (+18%)
– LATAM: $1.3B (+9%)
– APAC: $1.3B (+24%)
• Gross profit: $5.7B (52% margin, +6pp Y/Y)
• Operating profit: $3.8B (34% margin, +7pp Y/Y)
• Net profit: $3.1B (28% margin, +6pp Y/Y)
• EPS: $7.19 (+$0.12 beat)
• FY25 Guidance: ~$45B revenue (+$1B raise), margin 29.5% (+0.5pp)
📺 US Streaming Share; July 2025 (Nielsen)
Streaming captured 47.3% of US TV time in July 2025 (+5.9pp Y/Y). YouTube led with 13.4% (+3.0pp), Netflix followed at 8.8% (+0.4pp), Disney apps at 4.7% (+0.1pp), Prime Video 3.8% (+0.4pp), and Roku Channel 2.8% (+1.2pp).
GOOG NFLX AMZN DIS ROKU
Note: Nielsen excludes YouTubeTV and Hulu Live from streaming (counted in “Other” alongside gaming). Disney apps (Disney+, Hulu, ESPN+) and Paramount apps (Paramount+, Pluto) are lumped together in their totals.
📑 Institutional Conviction; Loomis Sayles Growth Fund
“Netflix’s share of global consumer entertainment spend will rise from ~3% today to ~5%. As content spend moderates, scale will expand margins into the mid-30s (vs 30% prior). Free cash flow accelerates, creating a compelling reward-to-risk profile.”
That’s not sentiment; that’s conviction.
🎨 Content Dominance Insight: Anime Rules Netflix
Netflix reports that 50% of its global users watch anime, that’s around 150M households. Anime viewership has tripled in just five years, and 80–90% of viewers choose dubbed versions. This isn’t niche; it’s a cultural engine that drives global engagement.
📉 Technicals: Broken Support; Next Demand Zones
I believe the breakdown is critical. $NFLX closed at $1,207.84, slicing under its late-August trendline.
• Demand zone: $1,144 key retest, deeper flush possible if sellers press.
• Short-term: 30m and 4H Keltner + Bollinger show compression inside narrowing bands. A volatility event is brewing.
• Long-term: Monthly Elliott Wave count points to a Wave 4 correction before an advance toward $1,543.
📆 September Seasonality; SPX + MAG7 Context
History is clear: September is the weakest month.
• SPX trends red into month-end.
• NVDA, AAPL, META: persistent September weakness.
• MSFT, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL, TSLA: mixed, often volatile.
Netflix’s own seasonality skews red early before strength later in the month.
Takeaway: discipline in September often sets up Q4 breakouts.
🔮 Platform Parallels
Andrew Dudum (HIMS) said it best: “HIMS isn’t a GLP-1 company; it’s a platform, like AMZN and NFLX.”
Netflix proved in 2007 that pivoting from DVDs to streaming unlocked exponential growth. New category leaders repeat this playbook.
⚖️ Probability Map
• 60% chance NFLX retests ~$1,144
• 30% chance of deeper flush into sub-$1,100
• 10% chance of fast reclaim >$1,230 sparking upside chase toward $1,279 and $1,543
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Modify on 2025-08-31 07:29
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- Queengirlypops·2025-08-31TOPI’m all in on the Netflix hype, this birthday stream hits different when you look at the numbers. $NFLX holding 8.8% share of US TV time with record-breaking shows like KPop Demon Hunters shows it owns culture and markets. The breakout to $1,543 feels inevitable fr 🍿🍿🍿🧃7Report
- Kiwi Tigress·2025-08-31TOPI’m fired up seeing Netflix crush it like this, 28 years in and it’s still rewriting the game. 300M subs and anime viewership tripling prove it’s not slowing down, it’s scaling faster than ever. That $10k to $10.6M compounding chart is insane, $NFLX is straight legendary fr 🍿3Report
- Tui Jude·2025-08-31TOPThat compounding chart is wild, $10k to $10.6M shows why conviction matters. The broken support at $1,207 and demand zone at $1,144 line up with how $AMZN traded into its own pullbacks before higher highs. Netflix feels positioned the same way into Q4 strength.2Report
- Cool Cat Winston·2025-08-31TOP🎥The Blockbuster late fee story never gets old, it shows how disruption starts from frustration. Seeing Netflix hit 300M subs while $DIS tries to defend market share proves how sticky scale is in streaming. The earnings beat and raised guidance reinforce that conviction.5Report
- Hen Solo·2025-08-31TOP🍿I love my Netflix 💜 📺The Nielsen data adds weight, 47.3% of US TV time going to streaming with $NFLX holding 8.8% share is impressive. Anime viewership tripling in five years proves content breadth is driving global growth. The Loomis Sayles call on margins into the mid 30s hits right.2Report