To The Moon

— A conversation with REIT expert Kenny Low ( Michelle Martin ,MoneyFM89.3)

Executive Summary

With bank valuations near historical highs and the U.S. 10-year yield still above 4.2%, Singapore REITs (S-REITs) are flashing a “technical breakout + dividend yield premium” signal.

The sector, however, still needs two catalysts: (1) institutional money flowing back and (2) clear Distribution Per Unit (DPU) recovery.

Kenny Loh’s advice:

1. Do not “sell all banks and go all-in REITs”; rebalance gradually.

2. Focus on individual names with visible DPU inflection points or repaired balance sheets.

1. Macro & Index: S-REITs Just Exited a Two-Year Downtrend

Index performance: After “down-sideways-up” from 2H 2024 to 1H 2025, the FTSE ST REIT Index hit a fresh high of 689 in August.

• 12-month total return: 10.5%

• 1H 2025 total return: 4.2%

Chart: Monthly inverted head-and-shoulders neckline at 660 has been broken on rising volume—textbook early-bull confirmation.

Breakout Price target 730 points in 12 months, implying ~10% upside plus 5–6% forward dividend yield = 15–16% total return.

2. Sector & Names: Who Is Leading, Who Is Lagging?(1-month price performance)

Leaders：

1. $ESR REIT(9A4U.SI)$ +11.6% – Industrial/logistics; improving occupancy in China & Australia.

2. $Suntec Reit(T82U.SI)$ +10.7% – Office assets in SG/Shanghai; positive rental reversions.

3. $CapLand IntCom T(C38U.SI)$ +9.5% – Singapore business-park DPU q-o-q +2.3%.

4. Elite UK Commercial Trust +7.9% – London office cap-rate compression, NAV discount narrowing.

5. $ManulifeReit USD(BTOU.SI)$ +4.5% – U.S. Grade-A office vacancy still elevated.

Laggards：

1. $KepPacOakReitUSD(CMOU.SI)$ US REIT – 7.0%

2. $DigiCore Reit USD(DCRU.SI)$ –4.5% Data-center

3.Banks vs REITs: Four-Dimension Comparison

4.Three Lead Indicators That Decide Further Upside

1. U.S. 10-year yield: A sustained break below 3.8% could trigger institutional re-allocation.

2. Singapore 10-year government bond yield: Already down from 3.7% to 3.0% YTD, enhancing REITs’ relative value.

DPU growth:

• Inflection seen: $Capitaland Commercial TR(CPITF)$ CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (+3.5% y-o-y).

• Still sliding: $Mapletree Logistics Trust Units Real Estate Investment Trust(MAPGF)$ (two-year downtrend—watch for 2H 2025 stabilization).

5. Investor Action Checklist

Positioning

• If bank weight >40% of portfolio, consider “trim 10% for every 5% up, rotate into REITs” ladder rebalancing.

• Cap any single REIT at 5% of portfolio to avoid tail-risk.

6.Stock-picking Framework (Kenny’s 3-Step Screen)

1. Debt tenor >4 yrs & ≥70% fixed-rate—limits refinancing shock.

2. 2025–2026 DPU CAGR ≥3%.

3. Price above 200-DMA with expanding volume.

7. Risk Flags

• Industrial/Logistics: Watch U.S.-China tariff news & e-commerce inventory cycle.

• Data-centers: Monitor AI/Starlink demand vs. 2025–2027 supply pipeline.

• U.S. Offices: Wait for >30% NAV discount + occupancy bottom before bottom-fishing.

8.One-Sentence Takeaway

“The REIT spring may have begun, but the train has just left the station—board calmly and keep your seat-belt fastened.”— Kenny Loh

(Real-time charts and monthly updates are published on Kenny’s website, “REITSavvy”.)

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