🎁 What points will market focus on Nvidia earnings?
H20 and China-specific GPUs: Impact on demand, pricing, and market share in China.
Gross Margin: Tracking product mix and cost leverage to see if gross margin can return to 75%, with historical trends of non-GAAP gross margin attached.
Blackwell → Rubin: Monitoring the production ramp of Blackwell Ultra and the transition into the Rubin product cycle.
This quarter’s results are unlikely to disappoint, but they also probably won’t deliver any major surprises, as everything is already well-telegraphed.
Looking at $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ supply chain— $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ , KYEC, Foxconn—their earnings and capacity data all point to strong demand for NVIDIA.
However, from a fundamentals perspective, both revenue and profit growth are starting to slow, with profit growth this quarter lagging behind revenue growth.
How do you think this earnings release will play out?
NVIDIA smashes expectations, indexes surge higher, U.S. stocks extend the bull run.
NVIDIA meets expectations, stock trades sideways, other sectors catch up.
NVIDIA misses expectations, drags down the U.S. market, all sectors fall together.
Options market data shows that global traders are pricing in a potential massive move in NVIDIA after its fiscal Q2 results.
With NVIDIA’s market cap at $4.4 trillion, earnings could trigger a swing of around $260 billion in market value, impacting global stock market direction. Options imply a 7%+ move, but the most likely outcome might actually be a whipsaw that crushes both bulls and bears—ending with little net movement.
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Key Areas to Watch:
China Market:
The impact of H20 and domestic GPUs on demand and pricing in China will be crucial, especially with Chinese chipmakers seeking to triple AI chip output in 2026 to reduce dependence on NVIDIA.
Gross Margin:
Maintaining a gross
margin of around 75% will be essential for NVIDIA's long-term profitability, especially as the company ramps up production of its new Blackwell chips.
Revenue and Profit Growth:
While revenue growth is expected to slow down due to NVIDIA's scale, investors will be watching for any signs of margin pressure and how the company manages its supply chain.
Revenue and profit growth are slowing, which is expected at NVIDIA’s scale. Supply chain data from TSMC, KYEC, and Foxconn shows strong demand, but profit growth lagging revenue points to margin pressure. I don’t see a big upside surprise—this quarter feels more like a checkpoint before the next cycle.
For the stock, I see three scenarios: a beat pushing indices higher, in-line results leading to sideways action, or a miss dragging markets down. Options imply large swings, but I think the likeliest outcome is a whipsaw ending near flat. At a $4.4 trillion valuation, even small moves can shake global markets.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars
1. Beat and Rally:
strong earnings beat could push indices higher, given NVIDIA's significant market influence.
2. In-Line Results:
Meeting expectations might lead to sideways action, as the market has likely priced in most of the positive news.
3. Miss and Sell-Off:
A miss on earnings expectations could drag markets down, given NVIDIA's $4.4 trillion valuation and market sensitivity.
Current Market Sentiment:
NVIDIA's stock is currently trading around $181.77, with a market capitalization of approximately $4.42 trillion. Analysts expect a "Strong Buy" rating, with a 12-month price target of $194.07.