To The Moon

Markets faced a rare triple catalyst this week:

1. Powell's dovish tilt → September rate cut odds climbed, easing yields.

2. Trump's Fed shock → firing Lisa Cook raised credibility risks for central bank independence.

3. SPY Rebalancing → passive flows shifting weights across tech, energy, and financials, amplifying volatility at key support levels.

🔎 Macro Impact

Fed Credibility Risk: Political interference could keep investors cautious.

Safe-Haven Flows: Gold, yen, Treasuries drawing bids as hedges.

ETF Flows: The quarterly rebalance in SPY is creating churn in mega-cap tech names (AAPL, MSFT, NVDA), intensifying intraday swings.

📊 Predictions (Near-Term)

QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF ~$573)

Support ~$560; risk-off headline could test $550.

Dovish Fed tailwind → rebound target $585.

SPY (S&P 500 ETF ~$645)

Rebalance flows mean chop between $635–655 short-term.

A clean break below $635 could trigger stops down to $620.

If Fed cut narrative dominates, expect SPY to claw back to $660+.

Gold (XAU)

Strong safe-haven bid could carry it to $2,550–2,600 while Fed uncertainty lingers.

✅ Takeaway

Powell's dovish stance is bullish in the medium term, but Trump’s Fed meddling plus SPY’s quarterly rebalance flows mean traders should brace for choppy tape and heavy intraday swings. This is a tactical market, not a trending one — support and resistance levels matter more than ever.

I'm not a financial advisor. Trade wisely, Comrades!