To The Moon

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Ford(F)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ I’m fully convinced Tesla has reached one of its most consequential turning points of 2025. The weekly breakout retest landed to the penny, and the tape is confirming strength with aggressive call flow and volume expansion. This is not just technical noise; it’s a broader re-rating of Tesla’s role in AI, EVs, and robotics.

📈 Weekly Breakout Retest Validates the Move

I’m confident that the weekly chart has confirmed a structural breakout. After retesting the descending resistance line precisely, Tesla is now pressing higher, trading around $344–$348. Key levels remain $345.60 and $349.40, with $350 as the major psychological pivot. Above $350, Tesla’s character of trend shifts decisively bullish, opening a roadmap toward $353, $361, and longer-term Fibonacci targets at $414.50.

📊 Options Flow: Institutions Declare Their Hand

I’m here for the flows, and the conviction is clear. A $26M single-leg purchase of 350C set the tone, part of over $27M in call buying versus $12M in put selling. At the same time, $5.4M was sold-to-open on 330P for September expiry. This activity lifted Tesla more than $7 intraday (+2.1%). When institutions commit nearly $30M to upside in <90DTE, it isn’t speculation; it’s tactical positioning.

🔥 Macro Overlay and Liquidity Beta

I’m tactically positioned in Tesla because it remains an “Easy Money Era” stock. If the Fed put narrative solidifies into September, liquidity will rotate into high-beta growth. Tesla’s correlation with $QQQ and $ARKK makes it a prime beneficiary. Risk-on ETF drift already supports the move, reinforcing that this is not just stock-specific strength but sector alignment.

🌏 Demand, Supply, and Deutsche Bank’s Bet

I’m extremely confident that demand signals are strengthening globally. Tesla’s Model Y L is officially sold out in China, while US inventories for Model Y are thinning ahead of the September 30 EV tax credit expiry. Deutsche Bank’s 20.8% increase in its stake, now holding over 10M shares worth $2.6B, underlines institutional conviction. Banks of this scale don’t add without a forward-looking thesis.

💰 My Position and Conviction Gains

I’m not just tracking Tesla from the sidelines; I’m positioned in this breakout. At a $328.57 cost basis with Tesla now trading $347.80, my unrealised gains stand at +$11,548 USD. This isn’t theory; it’s conviction backed by capital and proof that the thesis is working in real time. I’m confident these gains are only the beginning if Tesla sustains above $350 and drives into the next structural leg higher.

🤖 Robotics and AI Optionality

I’m watching Tesla’s pivot to a vision-only training strategy for Optimus, moving away from motion-capture suits and teleoperation. Elon is betting cameras alone can solve generalisable tasks. Uber’s Dara Khosrowshahi disagrees, claiming camera-only won’t work, but Nvidia’s Jensen Huang believes Optimus could be the first humanoid robot to reach mass adoption. This is more than product tinkering; it’s Tesla embedding robotics into its long-term valuation optionality.

⚖️ Risks: Regulation, Inventory, and Price Shifts

I’m focused on the NHTSA probe into Autopilot crash reporting delays and the California class-action lawsuit over FSD claims. Tesla also raised its Cyberbeast price by $15,000 to $114,990 despite $200M in Cybertruck inventory, signalling pricing power but also cost pressure. These are headwinds analysts will weigh when updating EPS models.

📊 Tesla’s FSD Edge

This bar chart shows Tesla’s 3.6B cumulative autonomous miles compared to Waymo’s 71M rider-only miles, highlighting the massive data advantage fueling Tesla’s AI and robotics lead 📊

🧭 Competitive Dynamics: Slate Auto and the Bezos Factor

I’m here to highlight a critical competitive storyline. Jeff Bezos-backed Slate Auto just recruited Napoleon Reyes, Tesla’s former Model Y general assembly leader, to spearhead its $20k pickup push. Slate claims 100,000 reservations already, positioning itself as a budget disruptor. Tesla, by contrast, has raised Cyberbeast prices at the top end. This creates a polarity: luxury-margin Tesla vs barebones Slate Auto. Investors must weigh whether low-cost entrants expand TAM or erode Tesla’s mid-market dominance.

🌐 xAI, Grok, and the Accountability Question

I’m deeply focused on Elon’s other AI venture, xAI, and the questions it raises for Tesla’s long-term credibility. Once registered as a Public Benefit Corporation, xAI quietly dropped that status in Nevada, limiting accountability. Its Memphis data centre has been linked to pollution lawsuits, while Grok has spread false and harmful content. Elon recently announced that xAI open sourced Grok 2.5 on Hugging Face, with Grok 3 set to follow in about six months. While this move projects transparency, the licensing terms have been described as restrictive and anti-competitive, and earlier versions of Grok became mired in controversy for producing offensive and conspiratorial content. Even Musk’s latest version, Grok 4, has been criticised for leaning on his own social media posts when addressing sensitive questions. For Tesla investors, the takeaway is twofold: Elon’s push to democratise AI models highlights his commitment to innovation and scale, but the reputational risks tied to Grok’s controversies remain very real. These dynamics cannot be ignored when considering Tesla’s long-term integration of robotics and AI.

📊 Technical Landscape and Market Range

On the 4H, Bollinger and Keltner channels confirm compression resolving upward, with RSI pressing above 65. Intraday 5m charts show clean EMA alignment, reinforcing the trend. Tesla trades between a 52-week low of $202.59 and a high of $488.54; at $348, it’s mid-range but showing breakout momentum. I’m confident this structural tightening plus heavy options flow creates asymmetric upside potential.

🔥 Conviction Call

This isn’t just a trade; it’s a collision of fundamentals, technical inflection, institutional flow, and macro liquidity. Tesla remains one of the few equities where robotics, AI, EVs, and macro narrative converge. I’m unequivocally optimistic that holding above $350 redefines the roadmap into year-end.

Are you watching $350 as the line in the sand for Tesla’s next secular leg, or do you believe risks like xAI controversy, regulatory scrutiny, and new low-cost competitors will keep it capped?

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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