To The Moon

$XIAOMI-W(01810)$ Xiaomi Delivers Record Q2 - Will Stock Follow Through to New Highs?

Key Highlights (Q2 2025, ended June 30):

• Revenue soared ~30.5% YoY to a record RMB 116 billion (~US $16.2 billion), beating consensus (RMB 114.7 billion) .

• Adjusted net profit surged ~75% to RMB 10.8 billion, exceeding estimates (RMB 10.1 billion).

• Smartphone revenue softened ~2.1%–2.2% to RMB 45.5 billion, on lower ASPs though shipments rose (~42.4 million globally).

• IoT & Lifestyle ahoy Revenue jumped ~45% to RMB 38.7 billion, powered by appliances, wearables, tablets The Wall Street Journal.

• EV segment tripled revenue to RMB 20.6 billion with 81,302 units delivered; losses narrowed from RMB 500M to RMB 300M.

• Gross margin in EVs improved to ~26.4%, approaching break-even per-vehicle profits (≈ RMB 67k).

• YU7 SUV launch generated massive demand reportedly 289,000 orders in its first trading hour; forecasts signal European expansion by 2027.

• Despite the stellar results, Hong Kong shares slipped ~1.2% to HK$52.40, though still up ~52% YTD.

• Xiaomi’s stock continues to stand out in China’s EV shake‑up, alongside Leapmotor and Xpeng, thanks to tech prowess and ecosystem strength.

China's Xiaomi receives almost 300,000 SUV pre-orders in minutes - CNA

Trading Levels & Sentiment:

• $XIACF / 1810.HK: Up ~52% YTD, strong recovery momentum.

• Support: ~HK$50–52 (recent close area).

• Resistances: Prior highs around HK$60–62; analysts at TipRanks peg target at HK$60.

• A push past HK$55 could reignite bullish moves toward HK$60–65.

Options Strategy to Ride the Moment:

1. Bull Call Spread: Buy HK$55 call, sell HK$60 call (1–2 months out). Limits cost while capitalizing on upside toward HK$60.

2. Protective Put: Holding shares? Buy near-term HK$50 put to hedge against post-earnings volatility.

3. Long Straddle (bold): Buy HK$55 call + HK$55 put to profit from further upside or downside though more costly.

Long-Term Thesis:

• Xiaomi’s EV arm is scaling fast: cost efficiencies, better margins, ecosystem integration giving structural edge.

• IoT, wearables, tablets all pillars of its diversified growth not reliant solely on smartphones.

• European EV entry (2027) adds another growth frontier.

• Analyst back-of-envelope from 36Kr: by 2030, revenue could hit RMB 1 trillion; net profit RMB 100 billion; market cap HK$2.5 trillion; price target HK$100.

Risks to Watch:

• Smartphone decline continuing.

• EV profitability still a few quarters away; execution risk in factories and orders.

• Macro-China headwinds, regulatory tightening.

Bottom Line:

Xiaomi just delivered a power quarter record revenues, diversified strength, EV momentum. If delivery volumes hold and European expansion gains traction, new stock highs could follow. A strategic long or options play here isn't just reasonable it’s compelling.

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Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, nor the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell securities. The views expressed are those of the author and do not account for individual financial circumstances. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You alone are responsible