To The Moon

$Pop Mart International Group Limited(POPMF)$ Pop Mart is stirring excitement with Labubu 4.0 set to launch next Thursday, but the buzz is tempered by a sharp drop in secondhand prices for hot Labubu and Crybaby models, now nearing official retail levels on platforms like Taobao. This trend raises questions about fading hype, potentially signaling a stock pullback despite the company’s record H1 2025 revenue of 13.88 billion yuan (up 204%) and profit of 4.709 billion yuan (up 362%). With the S&P 500 at 6,466.58, Bitcoin at $115,000, and oil at $75/barrel amid 30-35% tariffs, the VIX at 14.49 suggests stability, but Pop Mart’s stock at HK$284 (up 270% YTD) faces scrutiny. As Labubu’s revenue share drops to 34.7%, is this a healthy shift or a warning? If Pop Mart feels pricey, consider MINISO, with its IP product growth surging 28.6% internationally and 80% in the U.S., adding 189 stores in Q2. Is it time to cash out or hold for HK$300? This deep dive explores the dynamics, market sentiment, and strategies to navigate the hype.

The Labubu Phenomenon: Hype Fade or Strategic Shift?

Labubu 4.0’s release is a pivotal moment:

• Price Drop Alert: Secondhand prices for Labubu and Crybaby have tumbled 30-40% in a week, now close to retail (RMB 79-99), reflecting oversupply or cooling demand after Pop Mart's restock payments opened for several models.

• Hype Impact: Labubu’s share fell to 34.7% from over 40%, with emerging IPs like SKULLPANDA (RMB 1.22 billion) and CRYBABY (RMB 1.218 billion) gaining ground, signaling diversification but raising concerns if core hype wanes.

• Release Details: Set for August 29, Labubu 4.0’s mini pin series (RMB 79 retail, likely $28 USD) and box sets (A-M and N-Z) are expected to launch online at 10 PM EST on Pop Mart's site, with in-store drops the next day—previous restocks sold out in hours.

• Market Reaction: Pop Mart’s stock dipped 0.5% to HK$284 after the price drop news, with support at HK$270 and resistance at HK$300, suggesting a test of sentiment.

• Sentiment Split: Posts found on X show excitement for the launch but worry about "hype fatigue," with some seeing the price normalization as a healthy reset for sustained growth.

The 4.0 release could reignite buzz, but a pullback looms if demand softens.

Market Landscape: Diversification Win or Warning Sign?

The broader context adds layers:

• IP Diversification: Pop Mart’s 13 IPs exceeding RMB 1 billion in H1, with overseas revenue at 45% (up from 35%), show balance, but Labubu’s drop from 40% signals reliance risks if new IPs lag.

• Tariff Tension: The 30-35% tariffs on EU/Mexico/Canada, with Prism Capital’s 0.9% GDP cut forecast, could squeeze margins for export-heavy Pop Mart, though domestic sales buffer some impact.

• Technical Signals: The 50-day moving average at HK$250 and support at HK$270 suggest stability, with resistance at HK$300; a break above could target HK$320, but a fall below HK$270 risks $240.

• Valuation Debate: A forward P/S of 3.2x exceeds norms, sparking questions about sustainability, with analysts split on “Buy” versus “Hold” amid 204% revenue growth.

• Sentiment Shift: Optimism on X touts “IP powerhouse,” but bearish views warn of a "Labubu bubble," reflecting a market at a crossroads.

The shift is a win if diversification holds, but risks loom if hype fades.

HK$300 This Week: The Outlook for August 20-22

Can Pop Mart hit HK$300?

• Bull Case: At HK$284, a 5-6% rise to HK$298-$300 is feasible this week if $270 holds and Labubu 4.0 hype builds, with a 12-month target of HK$350 (23% upside) if overseas growth accelerates.

• Bear Case: A 5-8% dip to HK$262-$270 risks if secondhand price drops signal weakness, with HK$250 as support; a break below could test HK$240, a 52-week low.

• Catalyst Watch: Labubu 4.0’s August 29 launch, Uniqlo collaboration, and Q3 guidance previews could drive gains, while tariff escalations or IP fatigue testing the rally.

• Daily Forecast: HK$285-$290 (Wednesday), HK$283-$288 (Thursday), HK$280-$300 (Friday), per trends, with HK$270 as the pivot.

• Long-Term View: If revenue hits RMB 20 billion by 2025 and profit doubles to RMB 8 billion by 2026, a HK$400 target (41% upside) emerges, though risks persist.

• MINISO Alternative: With 28.6% international revenue growth and 80% U.S. surge in Q2, MINISO’s IP momentum (up 73% in TOP TOY) offers a $20 target (21% upside) from $16.50, with $15 support.

HK$300 is achievable if catalysts align.

Trading Strategies: Cash Out or Double Down?

Short-Term Plays

• Hype Chase: Buy at HK$285-$287, target HK$298-$300, stop at HK$278. A 4-5% gain if launch buzz builds.

• Dip Buy: Buy at HK$270-$275, target HK$290-$295, stop at $265. A 7-9% rebound if support holds.

• Profit Lock: Sell at $295-$298, target $285-$290, stop at $302. A 3-4% gain if overbought.

• Options Play: Buy $300 calls or sell $275 puts (August expiry) for 150-200% gains on a 6% move.

• Scalp Swing: Buy at HK$284, sell at HK$290-$292, stop at HK$282. A 2-3% quick win.

Long-Term Investments

• Hold Pop Mart: Buy at HK$280-$285, target HK$350-$400 by 2026, for 23-40% upside if IP grows. Stop at HK$260.

• MINISO Play: Buy at $16-$16.50, target $20-$22, for 21-33% upside. Stop at $15.

• Tech Diversify: Buy Tencent at HK$450, target $500, for 11% upside. Stop at HK$430.

• Defensive Pick: Buy Nestlé at CHF 100, target CHF 110, for 10% upside. Stop at CHF 98.

Hedge Strategies

• VIXY ETF: Buy at $14, target $17, stop at $12, to hedge volatility.

• SPY Puts: Use puts at 6,400 for a 5-10% market drop.

• Gold (GLD): Buy at $200, target $210, stop at $195, as a buffer.

My Trading Plan: Riding the Labubu Wave

I’m riding Pop Mart’s momentum with a balanced approach. I’ll buy at HK$285-$287, targeting $300, with a HK$278 stop, betting on Labubu 4.0 hype. I’ll add MINISO at $16-$16.50, aiming for $18, with a $15.50 stop, on IP growth. I’ll include Tencent at HK$450, targeting $470, with a HK$440 stop, and Nestlé at CHF 100, targeting CHF 105, with a CHF 98 stop. I’m hedging with VIXY at $14, targeting $16, and holding 20% cash for a dip to HK$270 or tariff news. I’ll watch secondhand prices and Uniqlo launch closely.

Key Metrics

The Bigger Picture

Pop Mart’s Labubu 4.0 hype, with a release next Thursday and secondhand prices near retail (RMB 79-99), raises questions about fading buzz amid a 204.4% H1 revenue surge to 13.88 billion yuan and 362% profit jump to 4.709 billion yuan. The S&P 500’s 6,466.58 and Bitcoin’s $115,000 fuel optimism, but a 5-8% dip to HK$262-$270 threatens if hype wanes, with HK$250 as support. A 5-6% rise to HK$300 is possible this week if 4.0 sells out, with a HK$400 target (41% upside) by 2026 if diversification succeeds. MINISO’s 28.6% international growth and 80% U.S. surge offer a $20 target (21% upside) from $16.50, with $15 support. Cash out or hold—your choice could define your play, with Tiger’s HK stock options adding leverage. Act smartly.

Will you take profits on Pop Mart or hold for HK$300? Share your view below! 🎁

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📝 Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

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