🚀 Pop Mart at New Highs — Is Labubu 4.0 the Start or the Peak?
Pop Mart ($POP MART(09992)$
But beneath the frenzy, cracks may be forming. In the secondary market, prices of the hottest Labubu collectibles are sliding closer to retail levels — a sign that the hype cycle could be cooling. For investors, this raises the million-dollar question: is this still a 🚀 growth story to hold, or is it time to take profits before sentiment turns?
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🎭 The Hype: Labubu Mania
Labubu has become more than a toy — it’s a cultural icon in China’s Gen-Z circles. Pop Mart has mastered scarcity marketing:
Limited drops that sell out within minutes.
Restock prepayments creating upfront cash flow.
Secondary market premiums that signal consumer frenzy.
The Labubu 4.0 release is just the latest chapter. Crybaby models sold out instantly, and demand remains intense in offline stores. This strategy has powered Pop Mart’s revenue and profit to record highs, making it one of the hottest consumer IP plays in Hong Kong.
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😬 The Concerns: Hype Isn’t Forever
Yet there are signs the hype cycle may be slowing. Secondary market prices — often the best barometer of fan intensity — have softened. Instead of trading at huge premiums, some Labubu figures are now priced barely above retail.
That matters because:
Pop Mart’s business relies heavily on sustaining collectible fever.
If consumers stop chasing resale gains, buying frenzy could fade.
Once scarcity premium declines, sales velocity might slow too.
This doesn’t mean the brand is broken — far from it. But it does raise the risk that investors extrapolating parabolic growth may be overpaying at these stock levels.
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📊 Short-Term Hype vs Long-Term Fundamentals
For investors, Pop Mart is caught between two narratives:
Bullish Case (🚀)
IP ecosystem is still expanding (Labubu, Crybaby, Skullpanda).
International growth is just beginning (SEA, Japan, Europe).
New revenue streams like gold jewellery and lifestyle products diversify the brand.
Strong management confidence — founder Wang Ning recently raised the 2025 revenue target to RMB 30B (up from 20B).
Bearish Case (😬)
Secondary market cooling signals saturation risk.
At HK$300+, valuations already price in flawless execution.
Consumer fads can fade quickly; sustaining Gen-Z loyalty is never guaranteed.
Broader macro weakness in China could pressure discretionary spending.
This is the classic hype vs fundamentals debate — and both sides have valid points.
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🔎 Lessons From Miniso and Others
To put things in context, look at Miniso (9896.HK). The “affordable lifestyle” retailer also rode a wave of consumer hype — Disney collabs, Marvel products, blind boxes — and saw its stock rally hard. But once growth normalized, the valuation reset, leaving investors who chased late nursing losses.
The comparison isn’t perfect: Pop Mart is more of a pure IP creator with a global collectibles angle, while Miniso is a retailer with licensed products. But the takeaway is similar: consumer excitement can drive extraordinary gains — until the growth curve cools.
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💡 What Retail Investors Should Watch
For Tigers considering Pop Mart, here are three key signals:
1. Secondary market premiums — if resale prices collapse below retail, it could foreshadow softer demand.
2. International traction — will overseas markets embrace Pop Mart IP as strongly as China has?
3. Diversification success — gold jewellery and lifestyle lines could extend the brand’s life cycle beyond toys.
These are the levers that will decide whether HK$300 is just a milestone — or the ceiling.
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💬 Final Thoughts
Pop Mart has delivered jaw-dropping growth, powered by Labubu and the Gen-Z collectibles craze. The latest rally past HK$300 shows the market is still hungry for the story. But with secondary prices cooling and valuations stretched, investors need to ask: are we chasing hype, or backing long-term fundamentals?
👉 Would you take profits after this rally, locking in gains before sentiment cools?
👉 Or do you believe Labubu 4.0 and global expansion will keep Pop Mart climbing higher?
👉 Is this the next Disney of collectibles — or a hype cycle running out of steam?
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